Giro d’Italia 2022

Stage 21 – Verona > Verona ITT (17.4km)

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Stage 20 Result

1st Alessandro COVI (250/1)

2nd Domen NOVAK (100/1)

3rd Giulio CICCONE (28/1)

4th Antonio PEDRERO (50/1)

Stage 20 Bets

Richard Carapaz 3pts win @11/4

Hugh Carthy 2pts win @7/1

Lucas Hamilton 0.5pts each way (4 places) @28/1

Chapeau Jai Hindley! In three weeks and in particular this day, he’s risen from a ‘lucky’ second place two years ago to the top table of Grand Tour riders. But shouldn’t a stage like this have been won by a GC favourite? It seems to be a growing trend. Breakaway wins are punter’s friends, but that was ridiculous. The stage got complicated when Bahrain had Novak up the road and clearly fancied a bit of each-way cake-eating (ie. to win the stage and move up in GC) which meant the gap to the break wasn’t reduced as it should’ve been. And what happened to the so-called re-branded Grenadiers? This was a nagging thought this whole Giro – they’ve put everything into the GC win, never once throwing men forward hunting stages, and now will leave with nothing.

Stage 21 Preview

Here we are – the final stage of this year’s Giro, and just like in 2019, it will end with a time trial around Verona. Richard Carapaz was crowned the winner that year but it would take something random for that to happen again as he now trails Hindley by 1min 25secs. The route is pretty much the same as the one used then – 17km with a fourth-category climb (4.5km at 5%) in the middle on quite a technical course with lots of bends. 

Significantly, the weather forecast is changeable with wet conditions expected at various times during the afternoon. Should that happen – and it’s no guarantee given the hit and miss forecasts we’ve had throughout the last week – it would play a big hand in determining our stage winner.

Contenders

We’re into the last stage of a Grand Tour which means some strange results are possible as fatigue and motivation are in play. That lump in the middle widens the field of potential winners and whilst the time trial specialists are sure to be up there, in the end it all depends on who’s got the legs. It could rain, it could stay dry, but at this stage it isn’t clear enough to make a judgement on whether early or late starters are favoured, so it’s best to ignore it. 

BikeExchange’s Matteo Sobrero finished fourth on stage 2 and will be targeting this. As we saw on that stage, the team is clearly benefiting from new TT bike tech – how else could Yates challenge the likes of Dumoulin? Yates apart, it’s been a low-key Giro for the Aussie team and they’ll be wanting something from this. Sobrero has been pretty anonymous this whole race – but maybe that’s a good thing. 

Mathieu van der Poel has elevated a sub-par Giro – what a privilege to have him complete a Grand Tour for the first time. He was in the break again on stage 20 without any real hope of winning the stage, simply because he could. So how are his legs for this time trial? They seem fine and the course suits. Van der Poel is not a time trial specialist but it doesn’t matter due to his formidable strength. He’s around even-money favourite for the stage which is unbackable but it would be great to see him bookend the Giro with stage wins.  

Following Romain Bardet’s sad exit due to sickness, Thymen Arensman has led the line well for DSM making multiple breaks but without finishing any of them off. That’s harsh for such a young guy thrust into a leadership role, but if his motivation is still high then he has a chance to make up for it here. The 9/1 about him is short considering he was a stage 2 pick at 33s but shows the progress he’s made. 

Jumbo-Visma’s Edoardo Affini finished a disappointing 13th on the opening time trial but his form has built over the three weeks and was super impressive on stage 18 during the unexpected breakaway win, and again the next day to help set up Koen Bouwman. Does that mean his legs are on fire or they’ve just been burnt? Who knows.

Similarly, Magnus Cort’s form has been building all Giro and is a useful TT rider, but he was out the back pretty quick during the frantic start on stage 20 which isn’t a good sign for this.

It’s been noticeable during the sprint stage chases how effective Lithuanian champion Ignatas Konovalovas has been, with time gaps tumbling whenever he’s been on the front. He’s super strong, clearly on top form and is worth a small interest at decent each way odds. 

Finally, Mauro Schmid, who finished ninth on the opening time trial, has been monster strong most of the race and was angry after the supposed corner cut-up by Bouwman on stage 19 – he might be motivated to put that right here at big odds.

Stage 21 Bets

Ignatas Konovalovas 0.5pts each way (3 places) @33/1

Mauro Schmid 0.5pts each way (3 places) @66/1

Posted 2023 BST Sat 28th May 2022

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available at Oddschecker

Stage 21 Result

1st Matteo SOBRERO (5/1)

2nd Thymen ARENSMAN (8/1)

3rd Mathieu VAN DER POEL (11/10F)

Stage 21 Bets

Ignatas Konovalovas 0.5pts each way (3 places) @33/1

Mauro Schmid 0.5pts each way (3 places) @66/1 – 6th

Schmid finished just outside the places in sixth which sort of summed up a Giro of near misses. In the end, 123.5pts were staked and returns were exactly the same – a full breakdown of all stage bets and results can be found here. 

On now to the Tour de France Grand Départ which this year will be in Copenhagen, Denmark on July 1st. Thanks for reading and see you then!