Stage 20 – Belluno > Marmolada (168km)

Profile

Stage 19 Result

1st Koen BOUWMAN (33/1)

2nd Mauro SCHMID (125/1)

3rd Alessandro TONELLI (150/1)

4th Attila VALTER (100/1)

Stage 19 Bets

Jai Hindley 1pt win @12/1

Lennard Kämna 1pt win @14/1 

Wout Poels 1pt each way (3 places) @20/1

Santiago Buitrago 1pt win @14/1

Bauke Mollema 1pt each way (3 places) @18/1

Chapeau-meter

For the second-to-last road stage of a Grand Tour, that was a bit of an anti-climax – largely it seems due to the front three being very evenly matched but also because the parcours wasn’t tough enough. As feared, both Bora and Bahrain held their men back, which did for three of the picks, Poels, Buitrago and Kämna, whilst Mollema tried but failed to make the break. Perennial pick Mauro Schmid came good in the end at a ridiculous price – the right man on the wrong day. Never mind, stage 20 should be a cracker!

Stage 20 Preview

The final road stage of this year’s Giro before a time trial around Verona on Sunday, and the overall is still very much in the balance with the top two separated by just 3secs. So we’re guaranteed attacks and, unlike stage 19, we’ve got the terrain in the Dolomites to make them stick. There’s a 4km unclassified rise after 17km which should help our breakaway form and then the riders go steadily uphill for 20km before hitting the foot of the Passo di San Pellegrino climb (18.5km at 6.2%). Then it’s down and up to reach the Cima Coppi – the highest point in the Giro – before heading to a summit finish at the Passo Fedaia on the Marmolada mountain whose final 6km average a brutal 12% and get ever-steeper towards the line.

Contenders

There’s no hiding place on this one – it’s a suitably formidable final challenge for the riders to overcome and perhaps explains some of the cageyness we saw in stage 19. So who will ride and when will the hammer go down? Ineos and Richard Carapaz have the lead and are therefore likely to ride defensively to protect their men, especially after losing Richie Porte to illness. 

Jai Hindley’s Bora-hansgrohe took it up early on stage 19 but burned their own men as quickly as seeing off rivals. Both Bora and Ineos’ mountain trains look a little vulnerable which is also a factor in them appearing watchful. In fact, Bahrain-Victorious now look the strongest and best-equipped for the mountains with Domen Novak, Wout Poels and Santiago Buitrago supporting GC fifth and third Pello Bilbao and Mikel Landa. With a numbers advantage, could they try to split the race open over the Cima Coppi? 

Given the importance of the stage, the fact that everything will be left out on the pitch, the likelihood that a team will take the race on early and the steep summit finish tilts the stage win very much in the favour of our GC favourites. 

The top three – Carapaz, Hindley and Landa – appear very evenly matched, but it’s impossible to know how much they’ve still got in the tank. That said, they were all still pretty punchy up the final climb on stage 19 and of course each have experience in lasting out, and indeed appearing to get stronger, at the end of a three-week tour.

Hindley has looked pretty unshakeable and has been the surprise of the Giro, confirming that his second place during the ‘Covid Giro’ of 2020 wasn’t an anomaly. Landa seems to be getting better and better and has almost a 5min cushion for his podium spot from Vincenzo Nibali which means he won’t have to cover moves left, right and centre to protect it. Though watch out for ‘The Shark’ launching a long one over the Cima Coppi!

The higher altitude is in Carapaz’s favour and he has the luxury to ride somewhat defensively. He’s likely to cover the attacks from the other two and then hit them near the top of the Marmolada. He’s favourite for the stage and rightly so, and is also the first bet selection.

EF Education’s Hugh Carthy can win in two ways – from the breakaway or a late attack from the front group which isn’t followed. After a slow start, he’s ridden himself into some great form and arrived home with the favourites on stage 19. We need to add him to the pot, just in case. 

Similarly, Guillaume Martin has been very active in his audacious bid to yo-yo in and out of the top ten every day. He could (will) attack somewhere but there’s likely to be others stronger to deny him the win. 

Stage 19 suggests that neither Buitrago or Poels will be granted a licence to go up the road, though that may have been because of the flat start. Bahrain may try to use one of them as a satellite rider for Landa to bridge later, but Ineos and Bora may man-mark that move. Trek also have an interest in marking Buitrago to protect Juanpe López in the white jersey. So, on balance, they’re best left out of the selections, though either would be strongly fancied in a breakaway.

Has anyone else been saving themselves for this last stage? Davide Formolo? Bauke Mollema? Joe Dombrowski? Lucas Hamilton? It’s possible, but more likely they’re just a bit knackered. Those first three dropped away pretty tamely on the final climb on stage 19 and it’s a stretch to say it was tactical. He’s been pretty quiet this Giro but just in case the break stays away, Hamilton finished just over a minute behind the favourites on stage 19, appears to be riding into some kind of form and the steep gradients suit him. The 28s about him isn’t the most generous, but still.

Whatever happens it should be a great stage, and with a spot of rain or a long range attack, could be a classic. Enjoy!

Stage 20 Bets

Richard Carapaz 3pts win @11/4

Hugh Carthy 2pts win @7/1

Lucas Hamilton 0.5pts each way (4 places) @28/1

Posted 21.51 BST Fri 27th May 2022

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available at Oddschecker