Stage 3 – Kaposvár > Balatonfüred (201km)

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Stage 2 Result

1st Simon YATES (33/1)

2nd Mathieu VAN DER POEL (5/2)

3rd Tom DUMOULIN (6/4F)

Stage 2 Bets

2pts win Mathieu van der Poel @5/2 – 2nd

0.5pts each way Thymen Arensman @33/1 (3 places)

Chapeau-meter

Just the two caps with Van der Poel 3secs short of taking back-to-back wins. At the bottom of the climb he looked to have nailed it, but what a great ride from Yates who’s clearly worked hard on his time trialling position and benefitted from BikeExchange’s new tech investment. Arensman was a solid 10th, 18secs back and looks to have carried his form from the Tour of the Alps which will be crucial to Bardet’s GC aspirations. This TT has given us a bit of a clearer picture of who’s on form both for the GC race and potential breakaway stage winners which will help with selections in the week ahead.

Stage 3 Preview

Our first genuine flat stage of the Giro and the last of this opening block of racing in Hungary. The riders will make the transfer to Sicily during Monday’s rest day ready for an early GC test and summit finish up Etna. 

There are a few little bumps along the 201km route including a short fourth-category rise 12km from home, but barring a horrible misjudgement the breakaway will be caught and this will end in a sprint. The roadbook appears to show a slight dip in the last 500m in an otherwise uncomplicated run-in, so the riders will be carrying even more speed than usual in what’s sure to be a hectic final.

Contenders

There’s always an element of guessing on the first sprint stage of any race. Until we’ve seen a sprint play out we can’t be quite sure who’s got the legs, whose leadout is prepared and in harmony with their sprint leader, or even if someone might raise their level and join the top table of fast men.

Pound for pound, Aussie Caleb Ewan is probably the fastest man on the startlist. Of course this doesn’t necessarily translate into a win with all of the variables involved in sprinting, but it certainly gives you an advantage. The Lotto Soudal leadout train is strong but maybe not the most reliable – they do have a habit of messing up early in Grand Tours which is a concern. Of course we have to ascertain how much of a mark was left from his spill on stage 1 – if we’re to believe the noises coming from the camp and Ewan himself, then not too much and to be fair he didn’t appear to be hampered during stage 2’s time trial. The slightly bigger odds factored in due to the fall may therefore be value. 

Unlike Ewan, Mark Cavendish hung out the back and stayed out of trouble on stage 1 to save his legs for this. He has the best leadout man in the business in Michael Mørkøv so, again unlike Ewan, is certain to be delivered in the right place at the right time to launch his sprint. There’s a predicted headwind on the home straight so timing will be crucial – striking too early and you could be toast. The bookies are struggling to split these two with both around the 2/1 mark. Either or neither could win but given we know that Ewan has good form but we don’t yet know about Cav’s, the Aussie is the value. 

In the 2020 Giro, FDJ’s Arnaud Démare was almost unbeatable in the sprints – winning four stages and collecting the ciclamino jersey. Unfortunately, he hasn’t reached those heights since and doesn’t have a single win this season (though he did have a good second to Ewan at Tirreno-Adriatico). He insists that his form is good but he got caught behind a crash on stage 1 so that has to be taken on trust for now. Démare has a deep leadout train to put him in position and there’s no doubt he has the class to win but it’s a leap of faith at this point.

Another rider without a win this season is two-time maglia ciclamino winner Giacomo Nizzolo and he too will have a full leadout support. The Italian was out for a month after breaking his wrist at Milan-Sanremo and his main goal is probably another points classification win. He’s super consistent and you can imagine him in the top 3, but winning is a stretch so the 10/1 isn’t great value. 

UAE Team Emirates’ Fernando Gaviria showed good early season form before breaking his collarbone at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. He continued his comeback with a second to Sam Bennett in Eschborn-Frankfurt last week that also featured Phil Bauhaus in fourth. Bennett himself is still building his form so it’s unclear how good that result was but both clearly have a chance. 

Team DSM come into the Giro with a pair of sprinters – Alberto Dainese and Cees Bol – and it’s unclear who will be the chosen one here. Both have performed very well at Grand Tours in the past – Dainese in last year’s Vuelta and Bol at the Tour a couple of years ago – though neither have had their arms in the air this season.

I’m always a believer in backing legs over whether a stage is a perfect fit, and by that measure we can’t rule out Biniam Girmay. Though not a pure sprinter like those above, he’s still fast on the flat and therefore could challenge the places. Without a proper leadout he’ll have to surf some good wheels to get in position but has a shot.

Not so long ago, AG2R’s Andrea Vendrame was challenging for places in Giro sprints and of course landed a stage win last year from a breakaway. Similar in profile to Girmay, Vendrame is best suited to tougher days out but is a huge price at around 500/1. He finished ninth on stage 1 showing the form is there and yes, the race would have to fall apart somewhat for the Italian to challenge, but let’s put him in for a fun play at massive odds.

Stage 3 Bets

Caleb Ewan 2pts win @2/1  

Biniam Girmay 1pt each way (3 places) @14/1

Andrea Vendrame 0.5pts each way (3 places) @500/1

Posted 22.03 BST Sat 7th May 2022

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