Stage 4 – Avola > Etna-Nicolosi (172km)

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Stage 3 Result

1st Mark CAVENDISH (2/1JF)

2nd Arnaud DÉMARE (15/2)

3rd Fernando GAVIRIA (14/1)

4th Biniam GIRMAY (14/1)

Stage 3 Bets

Caleb Ewan 2pt win @2/1  

Biniam Girmay 1pt each way (3 places) @14/1 – 4th

Andrea Vendrame 0.5pts each way (3 places) @500/1

Chapeau-meter

All about the leadout – Lotto messed theirs up and Quickstep were brilliant, hitting the front with men to burn as they flew over the roundabout with a kilometre to go. Girmay got boxed in and couldn’t unleash his sprint yet still was a wheel-width from making the frame, unlucky. Vendrame had a good position then suddenly didn’t and was nowhere.

Stage 4 Preview

After the opening skirmishes of the Grande Partenza in Hungary, the riders arrive for the first stage of this Giro on Italian soil. And there’s a familiar feel to a stage that ends with a summit finish on Mount Etna as this will be the fourth time it’s been used in the last six editions, albeit an ascent that’s a mixture of routes from those years.

Measured at 22.8km, it’s a very long climb but the gradients are not severe – an average of 5.9% with the only double-digit section coming a full 9km from the top. It flattens off at the flamme rouge, so if a group arrives together you’ll need a kick to take the day.

Contenders

Monday’s ‘rest day’ would not have been particularly restful for many as the riders made the transition from Budapest to Catania in Sicily. The GC men can ill afford to have heavy rest day legs with the tough test ahead of them and that certainly adds a random factor into solving the stage puzzle. 

Ordinarily, a summit finish and hockey stick-like profile would tilt the stage towards those fighting for general classification as teams pelt towards the foot of the climb and then steam up it wrecking any chance of a breakaway win, but that may not be the case here. 

We’re in an interesting phase of the race whereby the man in the leader’s jersey – Mathieu van der Poel – is almost certain to lose it and therefore Alpecin-Fenix have little incentive to control the front and chase down any break, whilst other teams may be very reluctant to be in pink this early in the race. Moreover, how much time can be taken on a climb with relatively shallow gradients? It may be best to keep your tyres cool for another day. So who will ride? 

Astana-Qazaqstan for local legend Vincenzo Nibali are definite contenders as are Ineos Grenadiers if they feel Richard Carapaz is in the shape to put time into rivals and want to take every opportunity that comes. 

Unfortunately, and as has been the case before on Etna, the elements may have a big factor on how the race plays out. A headwind on the climb would deter attacks amongst the favourites and we may see a sizeable group come in together, and almost certainly behind the breakaway. Forecasts confirm a headwind is likely but it’s unclear at this point how strong it will be.

As any breakaway winner is almost certain to also pick up the pink jersey, any candidate cannot be a long-term prospect for the overall win as they won’t be allowed up the road, but of course need to have the climbing legs to finish it off. 

There are umpteen of those but first on the list has to be Bora-hansgrohe’s Lennard Kämna. After a stellar 2020, the German took time away from the sport to reevaluate things but appears to have come back stronger than ever – a stage winner a few week’s back at the Tour of the Alps and impressive performances in the opening two stages here. He appears to have the proverbial diamonds in his legs and although the price is short we’d be kicking ourselves not to put him in.   

Intermarche’s Rein Taaramäe, a stage winner at the Vuelta last year, is another to look out for but he was off the pace a little in the Tour de Romandie last time out and may be building his form for the final week. EOLO-Kometa’s Lorenzo Fortunato is another – such an impressive winner up Monte Zoncolan last year – but it depends if teams judge Fortunato as a genuine GC threat which they may, similarly with FDJ’s Attila Valter.

There are five places available for this stage if you shop around which is both rare and welcome, so it’s worth looking further down the list for some breakaway candidates at bigger prices. The Trek pair of Bauke Mollema and Mattias Skelmose Jensen appeal. Both are going well – they sit 8th and 16th on GC respectively with the young Dane especially looking like he’s going places. We’ll put them both in the pot.

Off the back of their stage win on Sunday and without a GC man in their lineup, Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl will no doubt want someone up the road. Mauri Vansevenant, James Knox and Mauro Schmid are all players and although this isn’t ideal for him, we’re all committed now to backing Schmid off a cliff, so he’s in.

Should it come back together then fast finishers Pello Bilbao and João Almeida are favourites. Of the two, Almeida is probably the quickest but Bilbao may be on better form and didn’t let us down on stage 1 – so a saver on the Basque man.

Stage 4 Bets

Lennard Kämna 2pts win @14/1  

Bauke Mollema 1pt each way (5 places) @50/1

Mattias Skjelmose Jensen 1pt each way (5 places) @50/1

Mauro Schmid 0.5pts each way (5 places) @66/1

Pello Bilbao 1pt win @12/1 

Posted 21.34 BST Mon 9th May 2022

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