Vuelta a España 2024

Stage 3 – Lousã > Castelo Branco (191km)

Mon 19th Aug | KM0: 11:50 CET

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Stage 3 Preview

Where: Halfway between Lisbon and Porto heading east towards the Spanish border.

Stage Type: Hilly.

Weather: Very hot – mid 30s with a helping breeze compared to the headwind grind of stage 2.

Climbs: A long second-category climb (17.5km at 3.2%) halfway through the stage and a fourth-category (6.4km at 3.4%) that peaks with just over 40km to go.

Start: Two uncategorized climbs in the first 20km which may encourage a bigger fight for the breakaway.

Finish: A double left-hander with 2.5km to go where a good position will be handy and then the road rises in steps of 2-3% towards the line, so not completely flat.

Stage suits: Fast men that can climb a bit - so basically all of the fast men at the Vuelta.

Breakaway chances: Unlikely. Visma Lease a Bike will be looking to defend the red jersey and Alpecin-Deceuninck will want to set the race up for another sprint.  

What will happen?: Should play out similarly to stage 2 – Alpecin-Deceuninck and Visma Lease a Bike will do most of the policing and pegging of the break before bringing it back for a bunch sprint.

Stage 3 Contenders

Kaden Groves (11/10; 2.1) was well positioned throughout the tricky final despite losing two of his sprint train to mechanicals and came off Van Aert’s wheel inside the final 100m for a relatively straightforward win. Confidence will be high and one victory could easily become two.

Wout van Aert (2/1; 3.0) is now in red with the bonus seconds won on the line but was beaten pretty comprehensively by Groves both at the finish and the intermediate sprint. Maybe was dropped off a tad early by Edoardo Affini who otherwise did a great job. Maybe he’d be better surfing alone or tracking the Alpecin train.

Pavel Bittner (8/1) positioned himself well but got overrun before launching his sprint and by the time he got up to speed the race was gone. Still, sixth is a good result on his Grand Tour sprint debut in what was a stressful, borderline dangerous high-speed finale. Team dsm-firmenich PostNL’s GC leader, Max Poole, came down heavily late on which isn’t great for team morale so a good placing for Bittner would be a boost.

Corbin Strong (14/1) just about hung on to Groves’ wheel to make the frame but didn’t really look like getting round him. Keeps knocking on the door at big races, however, so at some point it will open for him.

Bryan Coquard (14/1) got stuck in a bit of a hole and never really launched his full sprint. Can go closer with a clear run but the price doesn’t appeal.

Arne Marit (16/1) was in an excellent position but his launch was impeded by the retreating Affini and he was lucky not to end up in the barriers. With better luck, Marit could make the frame at decent odds.

Stage 3 Bets

Kaden Groves looks the fastest and was able to win even without a sprint train. With one it’s difficult to see anyone getting past him.

Kaden Groves 2pts win@11/10

Posted 22:15 BST Sun 18th Aug 2024

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 3 Result

1st Wout van Aert (2/1)

2nd Kaden Groves (11/10F)

3rd Jon Aberasturi (25/1)

[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]