Vuelta a España 2024

Stage 2 – Cascais > Ourém (194km)

Sun 18th Aug | KM0: 11:50 CET

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Where: From the Lisbon area heading north parallel to the Portuguese Atlantic Coast.

Stage Type: Hilly.

Weather: Mid- to high 20˚s with a strong breeze from the north, so mainly a headwind for the riders.

Climbs: Two fourth-category climbs – 5.7km at 4.6% and 7.1km at 3.3%. The second is tougher than the numbers suggest – it’s actually about 2.5km at 6.5% before it levels off but this is preceded by an unclassified climb of 2km at 5%.

Start: Up the first classified climb from the flag which will make policing the break problematic.

Finish: The second classified climb peaks with just 20km to go so sprint teams will need to set a pace that deters attacks but doesn’t put their sprinter into too much difficulty. The run to the line is largely downhill with some quite narrow twisty roads rather than sharp bends. At the flamme rouge the road rises quite sharply and then levels off before a final 200m which touches around 3%.

Stage suits: Fast men who can survive some climbs.

Breakaway chances: Possible but not likely. The tricky start offers the chance for a big group to get away, however, it’s only stage 2 and sprint opportunities are few and far between so there should be enough teams who want to bring it back together for a bunch finish. The strong headwind also doesn’t help the break and may persuade some to leave it for another day.

What will happen?: Teams with a fast man – Visma-Lease a Bike, Alpecin-Deceuninck, dsm-firmenich PostNL – will make their intentions clear in the neutral zone to ward off mayhem on the first climb. A small breakaway will form and be brought back for a sprint finish.

Stage 2 Contenders

Kaden Groves (9/4; 3.25) won three stages and the points jersey at last year’s Vuelta and, given the lack of sprinters on the startlist, has a chance to do something similar again. Is winless in 2024, however, and hasn’t raced for two months. Would’ve taken it a bit easier in the time trial and will have a team fully committed to putting him in the right position on the climbs and in the sprint.  

Wout van Aert (9/4; 3.25) said his feelings weren’t great during the stage 1 time trial though still was only 3secs off the win. Also confirmed that he’s eying up the red jersey so should have a team helping to control the race. Won’t have a leadout but Van Aert tends not to need one anyway.

Bryan Coquard (10/1) picked up a rare World Tour win at the Tour de Suisse earlier in the year though that was partly due to an Arnaud De Lie mechanical. The slight uphill finish is good for him.  

Pavel Bittner (14/1) catapulted himself into prominence with two stage wins at the Vuelta a Burgos a couple of weeks ago, albeit against lesser sprinting talent than he’ll face here. Has the same team to support him which is clearly working well together and it’ll be interesting to see how he measures up on Grand Tour debut.

Corbin Strong (18/1) survives hilly days better than most fast men but is still looking for a big breakthrough win despite being in the mix on a number of occasions. This Vuelta parcours should offer up chances for the young Kiwi to end that wait.

Jhonatan Narvaez (25/1) attacked on late climbs a couple of times at this year’s Giro d’Italia, once successfully on the opening stage and another not so when he was caught just before the line in Napoli. Those were steeper ramps than this though and closer to home, so some kind of reduced sprint is Narvaez’s best route to victory. Showed good form in the San Sebastian Klasikoa and could turn Ineos’ fortunes around after Josh Tarling’s disappointing ride on stage 1.

Stage 2 Bets

Kaden Groves is the fastest on paper and Wout van Aert will be hungry for the red jersey but, after Mathias Vacek’s impressive time trial on stage 1, fellow young Czech Pavel Bittner has a great chance to land a breakthrough win at a more attractive price.

Pavel Bittner 1pt each way (3 places) @14/1 – 6th

Posted 22:37 BST Sat 17th Aug 2024

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 2 Result

1st Kaden Groves (9/4JF)

2nd Wout van Aert (9/4JF)

3rd Corbin Strong (18/1)

[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]