Giro d’Italia 2024
Stage 3 – Novara > Fossano (166km)
Mon 6th May | Scheduled start: 13:10 CET
Profile
Stage 2 Result
1st Tadej Pogačar (4/7F)
2nd Dani Martínez (20/1)
3rd Geraint Thomas (33/1)
4th Lorenzo Fortunato (200/1)
Stage 2 Bets
Antonio Tiberi 1pt each way (4 places) @33/1
Not even a sympathy cap there – that was a shocker. Tiberi suffered two punctures in the final 6km which is pretty luckless and finished over 2mins down. Despite his own tyre problems and a little tumble, Pogačar took the stage and is in pink.
Stage 3 Preview
The first designated flat stage which is certain to end in a bunch sprint. However, there are three short rises inside the final 25km – including a 1.5km kicker at 5% inside the last 5km – which will deaden the fast men’s legs to some degree.
There’s a hairpin bend 1.3km before the line where positioning will be key before a straight, flat run to the line. Having been blessed with sunshine for the opening weekend, there’s a possibility of rain on Monday which would make the sprint extra sketchy.
Stage 3 Contenders
Jonathan Milan (2/1; 3.0) won the first sprint stage at last year’s Giro and was super consistent throughout, ultimately winning the maglia ciclamino. He won twice at Tirreno-Adriatico in March before a super impressive classics season. Lumps are no problem for the big man and Lidl-Trek have sent an excellent leadout in Jasper Stuyven, Edward Theuns and Simone Consonni. Milan starts as favourite for stage 3.
Tim Merlier (5/2; 3.5) has no less than seven wins already this year including the prestigious Schelderprijs one-day classic. Confidence will be high and his leadout of Josef Černý, Luke Lamperti and Bert Van Lerberghe is solid.
Olav Kooij (9/1; 10.0) has won four times in 2024 and has no problem with little hills. He has Edoardo Affini, Tim van Dyke and Christophe Laporte as leadout riders though Laporte looks way below his top level right now. Moreover, Kooij crashed on stage 2 and seemed to be really struggling, otherwise he would be vying for favouritism. The inflated price looks appealing but never back a rider the day after a fall is usually a good system.
Kaden Groves (11/1; 12.0) is already a five-time Grand Tour stage winner including one at last year’s Giro but has struggled a bit this year through illness and injury. Alpecin-Deceuninck always have a well-drilled sprint train which we’re sure to see again, though the A-team will be at the Tour de France for Jasper Philipsen.
Caleb Ewan (11/1; 12.0) is a five-time Giro stage winner and his pedigree is not in doubt, but he’s struggled a little since his move back to Team Jayco AlUla. He was bullish before the start of the race though and looked good in the intermediate sprints on stage 2. He has a strong, experienced leadout in Max Walscheid and Luka Mezgec and could easily roll back the years and go close.
Fabio Jakobsen (16/1; 17.0) took a win on stage 1 of the Tour of Türkiye last month, but it was his young Danish teammate Tobias Lund Andersen (25/1; 26.0) that swept all before him for the remainder of the race, taking three further stages, albeit against much lesser opposition than he faces here. We assume that team hierarchy will be restored for the Giro, but Jakobsen only has that solitary win since his move to Team dsm-firmenich PostNL which is a bit of a worry.
Filippo Ganna (28/1; 29.0) is short in price considering he’s unlikely to even take part in the chaos of a bunch sprint. It’s a risk the Ineos Grenadiers are unlikely to take with bigger goals ahead.
Biniam Girmay (33/1; 34.0) took a historic victory in the Giro two years ago becoming the first black African to win a Grand Tour stage. He didn’t start the next day after injuring his eye with a Prosecco cork on the winner’s podium and bizarrely hasn’t been quite the same since. There have been glimpses of a return to form this year but is better suited by a tougher day out and a rising finish.
Phil Bauhaus (40/1; 41.0) is often underestimated but has a number of solid Grand Tour results and took a great win a few weeks ago at Tirreno-Adriatico. He’s probably below the best on pure speed but is definitely capable of springing a surprise.
Alberto Dainese (40/1; 41.0) has won a stage at the last two Giri but lacks consistency and is difficult to back with any confidence. He does however have an excellent train, let’s see if he can use it.
Fernando Gaviria (50/1; 51.0) opened the year with a win at his home Tour of Colombia but has done little since. The five-time Giro stage winner can never be ruled out and may utilise his trademark early launch which sometimes works, but usually doesn’t.
Juan Sebastián Molano (66/1; 67.0) is another that can win on his day, but others are surely faster. Of course, UAE Team Emirates are dedicated to protecting Pogačar, but he will have Rui Oliveira as leadout and with some luck in running could go close.
With so many teams here with a sprinter this could get chaotic. A good leadout is vital, especially into that last corner before the flamme rouge and, even though he’s plenty short enough considering how much can go wrong in a sprint, the stage 3 pick is Lidl-Trek’s Jonathan Milan.
Stage 3 Bets
Jonathan Milan 2pts win @2/1
Posted 00:19 BST Mon 6th May 2024
Prices to win the stage are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Giro d’Italia at Oddschecker
[Giro d’Italia stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
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