Giro d’Italia 2024
Stage 4 – Acqui Terme > Andora (190km)
Tue 7th May | Scheduled start: 12:30 CET
Profile
Stage 3 Result
1st Tim Merlier (5/2)
2nd Jonathan Milan (2/1F)
3rd Biniam Girmay (33/1)
4th Jenthe Biermans (300/1)
Stage 3 Bets
Jonathan Milan 2pts win @2/1 – 2nd
That was pretty chaotic and didn’t really play into the hands of stage pick Milan. Consonni and Theuns were never well-positioned and Stuyven was burned chasing Pogačar and Thomas off the front. No hard luck stories though, he still got a clear run only to be pipped fair and square by Merlier.
Stage 4 Preview
This should be another bunch finish, but the unclassified Capo Mele climb (1.5km at 5.1%) which tops out inside the final 3km is a perfect launchpad for attacks. Sprint teams will need to be better than they were on stage 3 to keep the field zipped together especially as the run-in is mostly downhill.
The road flattens out with 800m to go for what will be a super-fast sprint, so fingers crossed they dodge the forecast thunderstorms.
Stage 4 Contenders
Tim Merlier (11/4; 3.75) won stage 3 despite having to work hard inside the last 500m to improve his position. Spotting Milan making his move, Merlier had to launch early and showed impressive speed to get up. His confidence will be high and could easily double up.
Jonathan Milan (5/2; 3.5) got a bit lost inside the final 500m with his train arriving far too late and had his nose in the wind a bit early. This power finish may favour the big man but, obviously, his leadout needs to stay together.
Olav Kooij (8/1; 9.0) finished sixth despite a bit of knee niggle from his crash on stage 2. He was probably the unluckiest in running too, getting squeezed against Dainese when he pulled out to launch. With a clearer run Kooij can challenge for the win.
Tadej Pogačar (9/1; 10.0) very nearly pulled off a great win on stage 3 and this finale is equally suited to that kind of attack. But surely the sprint teams will be extra vigilant, maybe putting a climber on the front of their trains, and the price is short enough.
Biniam Girmay (14/1; 15.0) finished an excellent third with the unexpectedly hard stage playing to his favour. If there’s chaos again over the top of Capo Mele, the Eritrean could pick up the pieces.
Tobias Lund Andersen (18/1; 19.0) was a bit unlucky to find himself on the front with 300m still to go and was overrun, but he showed good speed. The final climb isn’t ideal for Fabio Jakobsen (40/1; 41.0) who got lost somewhere, so dsm-firmenich PostNL may back the young Dane again as their designated sprinter.
Caleb Ewan (20/1; 21.0) wasn’t positioned well in the final 500m and never landed a blow, finishing outside the top 10. His condition looks good, but he needs to be dropped off nearer the front.
Kaden Groves (22/1; 23.0) was also too far back and got stuck in a hole so is difficult to assess, but Alpecin-Deceuninck did a decent job in staying together. Confidence may be low given his season so far, so is best left for now.
Jenthe Biermans (50/1; 51.0) finished with plenty of speed in fourth which shows how tough a day it was given that Biermans is more of a one-day specialist. A similarly hard day and who knows, but it seems unlikely.
Olav Kooij didn’t look too troubled by his injured knee on stage 3 and his price is attractive, but Lidl-Trek will be motivated to do a better job and the high speed finish suits their man – let’s go in again with Jonathan Milan.
Stage 4 Bets
Jonathan Milan 2pt win @5/2
Posted 21:26 BST Mon 6th May 2024
Prices to win the stage are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Giro d’Italia at Oddschecker
[Giro d’Italia stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
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