Giro d’Italia 2023

Stage 3 – Vasto > Melfi (216km)

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Stage 2 Result

1st Jonathan Milan (18/1)

2nd David Dekker (28/1)

3rd Kaden Groves (7/2)

Stage 2 Bets

Kaden Groves 2pts win @7/2 – 3rd

Alpecin-Deceuninck did a great leadout for Groves who maybe went a little early into a headwind but in the end was beaten fair and square by Milan. But with a nasty crash delaying half the peloton just outside 3km, what we can take out of the stage is a bit muddled.

Stage 3 Preview

We start again in Abruzzo then move south and inland to Melfi – a town halfway between Bari and Naples – where several scenarios could play out. It’s flat until the final 40km before back-to-back classified climbs – 6.3km at 6.4% followed by 2.6km at 7.6% – with only 10km remaining after the descent.

Being so close to the finish, the pace will be on to try and shake out the fast men. So we’re looking at a reduced field contesting the sprint but how reduced is the question. The final is also technical with multiple roundabouts and traffic dividers as well as a tight double right-hander 400m from the line. After a dry start, there’s also the threat of rain or even thunderstorms late in the day, which would also add to the drama.

Stage 3 Contenders

This looks set up for what we’d describe as ‘classics’ sprinters – those that can get over a tough climb but also retain enough speed in the legs to win from a reduced group. Teams with those types of riders will be put to work on the climbs to ensure a small bunch for the sprint – without of course dropping their own man.  

Top of the list will be Trek-Segafredo for Mads Pedersen who’ll have earmarked this stage as a big opportunity to get his arms in the air. Trek will be smarting after getting caught up in the stage 2 crash which ended the Dane’s chances of contesting the sprint. Pedersen has to be the pick, but the best price of 9/4 is not generous considering the possible random elements involved.  

It’s likely that Jayco AlUla will look to put some heat on the front too for Michael Matthews who’s started the Giro well. This is right up his street and even though he doesn’t have the finishing pace of Pedersen could survive a tougher climb – that’s the equation we’re dealing with. You can get 13/2 about the Aussie.

Bahrain-Victorious’ Jonathan Milan will of course be full of confidence after his win on stage 2. There’s no doubting his strength, but can he come down from that emotional high for a repeat performance here? I’m not so sure.

Coming into the final kilometre, I expected Kaden Groves to kick away and win stage 2, but for whatever reason, it wasn’t quite there. He showed in the Volta Limburg Classic in April that a tough, hilly stage is no trouble for him so should we give the Aussie a chance to redeem himself here? Some fingers have been pointed at him for causing the crash into San Salvo which probably won’t help his mental state. To be fair to him, he moved right in order to avoid the feet of the barriers which isn’t clear on the overhead footage, but no doubt he’ll be feeling bad about what happened.

Ordinarily, this would be a stage tailormade for EF Education-Easypost’s Magnus Cort but he looked below his best at the Tour de Romandie so he’s probably best dodged here. Given that he’s planning the Giro d’Italia-Tour de France double, it wouldn’t be surprising if he’s arrived here a little undercooked. Let’s reassess Maggie’s form in the coming days.

It’s not impossible the GC riders could end up getting involved or at least be present at the pointy end of the race coming to the line. In that scenario, Primož Roglič, Remco Evenepoel and Tao Geoghegan Hart are the quickest. The Brit won two stages at the Tour of the Alps including a technical sprint into a (thankfully) dry ice-rink whilst Roglič and Evenepoel took turns to best each other in Catalunya. On balance, the Slovenian has the better pedigree in hoovering up these types of sprints.  

With the forecast as it as and the technical final, this could get messy and all sorts of riders could get involved. One man on good form with a second at Eschborn-Frankfurt and eighth at Liege-Bastogne-Liege is Bora-Hansgrohe’s Patrick Konrad. Whilst better suited to a tougher day out than this, the former Austrian champion is fast in the sprint and could pick up the pieces should the race fall apart.

Stage 3 Bets

Mads Pedersen 2pts win @9/4

Primož Roglič 0.5pts each way (3 places) @22/1

Patrick Konrad 0.5pts each way (3 places) @175/1

Posted 20.56 BST 7th May 2023

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