Giro d’Italia 2023

Stage 4 – Venosa > Lago Laceno (175km)

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Stage 3 Result

1st Michael Matthews (5/1)

2nd Mads Pedersen (9/4F)

3rd Kaden Groves (9/1)

Stage 3 Bets

Mads Pedersen 2pts win @9/4 – 2nd

Primož Roglič 0.5pts each way (3 places) @22/1 – 7th

Patrick Konrad 0.5pts each way (3 places) @175/1 – 11th

Jayco-AlUla managed to sap Pedersen’s legs by just enough and Matthews got up by a wheel-width – chapeau Bling! It didn’t quite break up enough to allow non-sprinters to fight for the win with Konrad just outside the top 10 having never been positioned well and Roglič sprinting (leisurely) through for seventh.

Stage 4 Preview

We’re heading west towards Napoli over the Apennines for the first real climbing tests of this year’s Giro d’Italia, and despite this not being an official mountain stage (like stage 3, it’s classed as ‘hilly’), we’re still likely to see some action among the favourites.

There are three second-category climbs on the route, but it’s the final one up Colle Molella – 9.6km at 6.2% – where the decisive action will take place. Those numbers don’t tell the whole story as it starts off quite shallow before a 4km section halfway up which averages over 9%, touching 12% in places. It’s also not a summit finish with a further 3km of flat to go once crested meaning a fast finish is handy should a small group arrive together.

Stage 4 Contenders

Never believe anything a cyclist says, but Remco Evenepoel has repeatedly stated the team’s aim of allowing a breakaway to win stage 4 and thus relinquish their hold on the maglia rosa. He’s probably telling the truth as it’s an opportunity to take some pressure off the team and save his troops for tougher mountain days ahead … but a GC saver is probably wise just in case!

So Soudal-Quick Step will police the break which could be tricky as it’s up and down for the first 30km and, considering what Evenepoel has been saying, a fair few will be looking to be in it. It may even take the first categorized climb, which they’ll hit the foot of after 43km, before it settles down.

It goes without saying that to win the stage you’ll need to be a decent climber but also not a long-term threat on general classification. Which you’d assume rules out both Groupama-FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot and Bahrain Victorious’ Santiago Buitrago who, whilst probably being outsiders for podium places in Rome, are still dangerous enough to worry sports directors and probably won’t be allowed in the break.

Arguably, the man-of-the-match on stage 3 was Jayco-AlUla’s Filippo Zana. He was on the nose for a long way up the climbs, shredding the back of the peloton. The team will be jubilant after Michael Matthews’ win and may look to reward the Italian champion with licence to get up the road. At 20/1, he’s worth an each-way selection.

Trek-Segafredo will want representation too and have a few candidates for which the stage suits. Veteran breakaway specialist Bauke Mollema offered good support for Mads Pedersen on stage 3 showing that his level is improving after disappointing a bit in the Ardennes classics. Like a few riders, he’s looking to complete his Grand Tour set of wins having already won at the Tour de France and Vuelta a España. But let’s leave Bauke for now – he may have better opportunities later in the race.

Trek’s Eritrean pair of Natnael Tesfatsion and Amanuel Ghebreigzabhier are of interest. Both did good work for Pedersen on stage 3 and, if anything, it was Ghebreigzabhier who was the more impressive. He showed in March at the GP Industria & Artigianato that when given a rare opportunity to ride for himself he can deliver, finishing second. Both are available at big odds for this.

The winner of that Italian one-day race was EF Education-EasyPost’s Ben Healy and he followed that with second at Brabantse Pijl, second at Amstel Gold and then fourth at Liège-Bastogne-Liège – quite a run of form for the Irishman. He must be eyeing this and is a decent 16/1 to take the win.

Literally dozens of others will be looking to get involved and there’s an element of breakaway bingo about it – plenty of luck will be needed to catch the break that eventually goes.

Should it all come back together and given that flat finish to Lago Laceno, the GC saver has to be Primož Roglič who should be able to outsprint his rivals, assuming he hasn’t already been dropped up the climb by Evenepoel!

Stage 4 Bets

Filippo Zana – 1pt each way (4 places) @20/1

Ben Healy – 1pt each way (4 places) @16/1

Amanuel Ghebreigzabhier – 0.25pts each way (4 places) @400/1

Primož Roglič – 1pt win @7/1

Posted 20.48 BST 8th May 2023

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