Vuelta a España 2023

Stage 4 – Andorra la Vella. Andorra > Tarragona (185km)

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Stage 3 Result

1st Remco Evenepoel (9/1)

2nd Jonas Vingegaard (5/1)

3rd Juan Ayuso (16/1)

Stage 3 Bets

Primož Roglič 1pt win @7/2 – 4th

Roglič was never well positioned and didn’t really unleash a sprint. Strange – perhaps still feeling the effects of his tumble on stage 3.

Stage 4 Preview

Starting in Andorra, the riders head south to Tarragona for a finish that looks likely to end in a sprint, but all will depend on the strength of the break and how many teams are willing ride.

Two classified climbs with modest gradients (9.3km at 3.7% and 5.2km at 4.9%) come in the final third but the second peaks 30km out making an attack and solo run for home extremely unlikely.

The final kilometre is not straightforward with short ramps touching 6% and a 3% rise for the sprint itself. That shouldn’t trouble the kind of sprinters we have here though, in fact it’s perfect for them.  

Stage 4 Contenders

Kaden Groves (11/10; 2.10) took an excellent second on the rather odd stage 2 which saw a GC team accord in defiance of the race organisers who, to be fair, are having a shocker. A stage winner at the Giro d’Italia and double winner in the Volta a Catalunya (so good vibes around these parts), Groves is pound-for-pound the fastest man on the startlist and has a team dedicated to putting him in a winning position. Sprinting can be messy, however, and it’s no guarantee of victory.

Alberto Dainese (6/1; 7.00) ‘warmed up’ at the Arctic Race of Norway and took a fine stage win, albeit against lesser opposition. He looked in good form though and when given the opportunity can deliver a big result as shown by his stage wins in the last two Giros.

Juan Sebastián Molano (7/1; 8.00) was the rider who took out Primož Roglič and Geraint Thomas on stage 2 – both of whom were below par on stage 3 suggesting the falls were worse than assumed. UAE won’t put many resources into delivering Molano considering their GC ambitions so there are factors to lean towards swerving the Colombian. He did win at the Vuelta a Burgos a couple of weeks ago, however, as well as take the final sprint into Madrid last year despite being Pascal Ackermann’s leadout man.

Marijn van den Berg (7/1; 8.00) would benefit from a somewhat lumpier day than this to deaden the legs of his rivals, but he has beaten some fast men already this season – notably putting Ethan Vernon and Biniam Girmay behind him on a sketchy, wet finish in Mallorca at the start of the season. Van den Berg is having a breakthrough season and has great potential; it would be no surprise to see him lifting his arms at some point in the next three weeks.  

Bryan Coquard (11/1) twice finished second behind Groves in Catalunya and had an excellent Tour de France with several top tens. If Coquard is ever going to break his Grand Tour duck then surely, given the lack of pure sprinters and a parcours that suits, he’ll do it at this Vuelta.

Iván Gárcia Cortina (16/1) has been cut in price so is clearly fancied and, along with most of his rivals it must be said, will love this final. He showed well on stage 2 and has a huge chance to take his first Grand Tour win, however, like Coquard, isn’t prolific at the very top level.  

Milan Menten (25/1) can’t be ruled out – winner of the one-day classic Le Samyn on an uphill finish back in February and has sprinklings of good form since.

The uphill final brings more riders into play which makes Groves difficult to back at such a short price, though he’s clearly the likeliest winner. Dainese and Van den Berg make more appeal with some question marks around the others. On Grand Tour debut it’s a big ask, but let’s keep Marijn van den Berg onside – if positioned well, the impressive young Dutchman has the speed to win.  

Stage 4 Bets

Marijn van den Berg 1pt win @7/1

Posted 22:27 BST Mon 28th August 2023

Prices to win the stage (in brackets) are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Vuelta a España at Oddschecker

[Vuelta a España stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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