Vuelta a España 2023

Stage 5 – Morella > Burriana (186.5km)

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Stage 4 Result

1st Kaden Groves (11/10F)

2nd Juan Sebastián Molano (7/1)

3rd Edward Theuns (50/1)

Stage 4 Bets

Marijn van den Berg 1pt win @7/1

Van den Berg positioned himself perfectly to lead into the final corner but just overcooked it and went into the barriers. We’ll never know but he’s sure to have gone close to taking the win. A good pick that lost – let’s move on.

Stage 5 Preview

Another day for the sprinters? Perhaps, though the opening 50km is a lot more up and down than stage 4 and many could fancy their chances of forming a strong group that goes all the way. A headwind for most of the route south doesn’t help their chances, however.

The only classified climb is a second category with modest figures of 11.4km at 3.9% but it does get progressively steeper near the top. There are plenty of roundabouts coming into the finish but it’s more straightforward than stage 4 – just a single right-hander inside the kilometre mark before a flat run to the line.

Stage 5 Contenders

Kaden Groves (Evs; 2.00) was the strong favourite for stage 4 and delivered. Understandably, he’s now an even shorter price to double up. Alpecin-Deceuninck showed great commitment, controlling the break all day and putting the Aussie in a position to win. They’re likely be leant upon heavily to do the bulk of the work again and that in itself may jeopardise the chances of it ending in a bunch finish.

Juan Sebastián Molano (11/2; 6.50) is clearly suffering no ill-effects from his tumble on stage 3 and almost stole the win with an early launch 300m from the line. Despite their GC commitments, UAE Team Emirates did commit a couple of men to drop Molano off near the front under the flamme rouge and, given his near miss, are likely to do so again.

Alberto Dainese (15/2; 8.50) admitted afterwards he just didn’t have the legs to compete in the final having got shuffled a bit too far back entering the last kilometre. This flatter finish is better for him, but the ups and downs beforehand won’t help if his legs are a bit flat.

Marijn van den Berg (11/1) was left to muscle himself to the front after a surprisingly disjointed EF Education-EasyPost train fell apart somewhat. Would he have won? It would’ve been nice at least to see how the sprint played out. Hopefully, not too much damage was done in the fall – it didn’t appear so. Van den Berg admits himself that he doesn’t have the top-speed of the purer sprinters on flat finishes, but a day of almost 2500m altitude gain could be enough to level the playing field and give him the chance of putting the stage 4 disappointment behind him.  

Milan Menten (33/1) finished an excellent fourth and Lotto Dstny backed him with prominent numbers inside the last 3km. They might fancy getting a man up the road for this, but Menten will be there as back up should it all come back together.

Bryan Coquard (25/1) revealed pre-stage that he’d damaged his coccyx in a fall in Barcelona and crashed hard again on stage 4 – he’s best avoided.

Iván García Cortina (25/1) got caught up following Van den Berg’s trip to the barriers, so we didn’t get to see his sprint. He chased home Molano in the opening stage in Burgos but it’s difficult to envisage him being the fastest on a flat sprint unless the day happens to turn significantly tougher than it looks on paper.

Edward Theuns (25/1) landed an excellent third for a Lidl-Trek team that’s going very well at the moment – driven on by one of the best jersey designs in recent years perhaps. Theuns isn’t a prolific winner but clearly has good legs which is more than half the battle.

For the breakaway:

Andreas Kron (22/1) was impressive in his stage 2 victory but there was an asterisk of sorts around it following the GC go-slow behind. His price is short considering a sprint finish is more likely than not, but would clearly be a big threat should he find himself up the road.

Nico Denz (40/1) has annoyingly already been cut from triple-figure odds otherwise he’d be an each-way interest. Denz won two stages at the Giro d’Italia earlier in the year on similarly tough up-and-down days. Punchier guys struggle to drop the big German on shallow gradients and he packs an excellent sprint. It’s early to be given freedom given his domestique responsibilities, but Bora-Hansgrohe may stamp his pass for the day.

Andrea Vendrame (40/1) can climb, has a great sprint and showed his good legs with a third on stage 2 – what’s not to like?

He may have missed his best chance of a win on stage 4, but let’s go in again on Marijn van den Berg. And we’ll include Andrea Vendrame for the break or, if the day turns really hard, an extra bunch sprint option.

Stage 5 Bets

Marijn van den Berg 1pt each way (4 places) @11/1

Andrea Vendrame 0.5pts each way (4 places) @50/1

Posted 21:27 BST Tue 29th August 2023

Prices to win the stage (in brackets) are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Vuelta a España at Oddschecker

[Vuelta a España stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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