Vuelta a España 2022

Stage 4 – Vitoria-Gasteiz > Laguardia (152.5km)

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Stage 3 Result

1st Sam Bennett (2/1F)

2nd Mads Pedersen (10/3)

3rd Dan McLay (25/1)

Stage 3 Bets

2pts win Tim Merlier @9/4

We’ll never know if Merlier would’ve won after unclipping with about 500m to go and losing all chance to compete in the sprint – terrible luck. And tough on Alpecin who worked hard all day long for nought. Never mind – to Spain!

Stage 4 Preview

We’re in Spain, or more specifically the Basque Country, for a stage with an interesting profile. It’s pretty short at just over 150km which usually makes for exciting racing and there’s a stiff-looking third-category climb near the end followed by a steepish rise to the line.

The Puerto de Herrara climb is 7.3km long and averages just 4.8%, but there are a few steps at over 12% that are perfect launchpads for attacks, especially as it peaks out just 15km from home. The final 800m averages about 9% before levelling off a little at the line.

So it looks like one where punchy types who pack a sprint are favoured – unless of course it’s left for the breakaway!

Stage 4 Contenders

So a tricky puzzle to solve first up in the opening Spanish stage of the Vuelta. Jumbo-Visma hold the leader’s red jersey (Edoardo Affini becoming the third Jumbo rider to wear it in as many days) but they won’t want to carry it all the way to Madrid. At some point this week, you’d expect them to give it up to a breakaway rider who isn’t a GC threat. But will that be here? Well, we don’t know – it will depend on how much damage they think they can do given the parcours, how confident they are in the form of Primož Roglič, the strength and composition of the breakaway, and of course whether other teams decide to ride.

On balance, I think a few riders and teams will quite fancy this one so will control and chase down the day’s break. That may include Roglič himself on a finish that looks perfect for him. On his best form, he’s pretty peerless on finishes like this but how is his form? Roglič crashed on stage 5 of the Tour de France injuring his shoulder and back, however, he ploughed on for another ten stages – and contributed a great deal towards Jonas Vingegaard’s victory – before finally pulling out to allow his injuries to heal. He’s been installed the 4/1 favourite which is fair enough and may well win in the style we’ve seen so many times, but I’d rather have a watching brief on him for now.

One team that may well be motivated to ride are Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl as they have two big players for a final like this. Julian Alaphilippe is easing his way back after a horror crash in Liège-Bastogne-Liège back in April where he suffered a fractured shoulder blade, two fractured ribs and a collapsed lung. He was active at the recent Tour de l’Ain but clearly nowhere near his scintillating best. As with Roglič, this finish is perfect for the double world champion so cannot be ruled out. But similarly, let’s see how he’s going before getting involved in the quite short odds available about him.

I’d much rather be on the side of his teammate, Remco Evenepoel. It looks like the boy is absolutely flying and full of confidence (not that confidence is one of his weak points). He won the prestigious Donostia San Sebastián Klasikoa a few weeks back by almost 2mins after a solo attack and even distanced his teammates at the end of the team time trial on stage 1.

However, it’s that exuberance or over-exuberance that he’ll be wary of after starting his only other Grand Tour appearance – the 2021 Giro d’Italia – like a train before running out of steam in the final week. That said, one could argue that if you’ve got the form, use it and take time where you can. His only issue here would be if he arrives with a group as, even though he’s been working on his sprint, he isn’t as fast as some of his rivals. Evenepoel is up at a best price of 13/2.

The sprinters are all likely to be distanced on that third-category climb, however, a couple may survive and the most likely is Ineos Grenadiers’ Ethan Hayter. I say ‘sprinter’, but Hayter is turning into an exceptional all round bike rider, demonstrated when he won the recent Tour of Poland. Could he turn himself into a genuine general classification rider? Who knows? One thing we do know is that he’s fast, so if he’s in the front group near the line, he has a big chance. The young Brit is a bit bigger than the Quick-Step pair at 7s.

Bora-Hansgrohe’s Sergio Higuita has really stepped up a level this year with a win at the Volta a Catalunya and second at the Tour de Suisse. This finish isn’t too dissimilar to stage 3 of the recent Tour of Poland which Higuita won impressively despite not being particularly well positioned for a long way. He did though bang his knee up in a crash the next day but completed the race and didn’t appear too restricted. The Colombian champion has now had a couple of weeks recovery time and is gunning for the overall – this would really put down a marker towards his GC ambitions.

A lot of different riders could end up getting involved in this one or it could even be one for the breakaway, but both these guys are in top shape and are proper zippy up a short climb.