Vuelta a España 2022

Stage 5 – Irun > Bilbao (187.2km)

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Stage 4 Result

1st Primož Roglic (4/1F)

2nd Mads Pedersen (100/1)

3rd Enric Mas (300/1)

Stage 4 Bets

1pt win Sergio Higuita @12/1

1pt win Remco Evenepoel @13/2

Roglič is looking decent then. Not great from our boys – Higuita struggled on the final categorised climb, hanging around at the back. He had no chance on the run to the line given his positioning even if he did have the legs. A very disappointing and curious performance. Evenepoel worked to set up Alaphilippe who also fell away tamely when the heat was turned up, with the young Belgian chasing back up to finish 6th but also never in a position to win it.

Stage 5 Preview

Stage 5 follows a route west along the Basque coast and contains five categorised climbs, the toughest being the second-category Alto del Vivero which they tackle twice inside a final 50km loop around Bilbao. The Alto del Vivero is 4.6km long at an average of 8% with short sections of 17%, 16.5% and a leg-breaking 23.6%, so damage can definitely be done and it could get selective.

But will anyone chase all day for the stage? Or will they allow the breakaway to take the spoils and then have a bit of a dust-up behind? If teams sense it could be one for the break, then there’ll be a big fight for it. The start is flattish so we may have to wait for the uncategorised rise after 35km for the break to form at which point we should get an idea of how the day will play out.

Stage 5 Contenders

Having now had half their team of eight riders in the red jersey and with an eye to the first mountain stage on Thursday, there appears no reason why Jumbo-Visma would ride here unless a genuine GC threat gets up the road. But you never know, and if it comes down to a GC battle then Primož Roglič would be a big favourite to take another stage victory – there doesn’t appear to be anyone who can live with his power sprint.

Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl might be ones to ride for Julian Alaphilippe or Remco Evenepoel but things didn’t go that well for them on stage 4. This classics-style course looks ideal for Evenepoel who’ll surely put in a dig on those steep sections but I doubt they’ll ride all day to try to set up a stage win. As Alaphilippe looks a little undercooked, it’d be much better for him to try for the break and test his luck from there.

So on balance this looks like one for the breakaway but of course there are no guarantees.

One man who could probably win either way is Trek-Segafredo’s Mads Pedersen. How impressive has he been? That’s three second places in a row – it’s fair to say he’s held his form from the Tour. It’ll be interesting to see which option Trek and Pedersen decide to take but the best would surely be to get him up the road. They showed a huge amount of confidence in him on stage 4 – riding on the front up the final climb and the Dane never looked in trouble. He’s a big player and installed as favourite at 6/1.

An obvious breakaway candidate is of course Thomas de Gendt. He’s already been in one break and has shipped time elsewhere to save his legs for days like this. He’s available at a decent-looking 50/1 but I prefer his Lotto Soudal teammate at the bigger price of 80s. Australian Harry Sweeny took an impressive second on stage 3 at the Tour de l’Ain not two weeks ago and has come close to a Grand Tour stage win before – third behind Nils Politt in the Tour last year. Lotto are here to hunt stages so if it’s a big break there could be more than one of them up there, which always helps.

Despite their primary concern of looking after Ben O’Connor in his GC bid, AG2R Citroën are sure to give some riders licence to chase stage wins and they have some interesting options. Bob Jungels came back from arterial surgery to land a stunning win at last month’s Tour de France. He’s already dumped some time to give himself some freedom, but he may well be building his form for the more mountainous second half of the race having been away from the races since Paris.

Nans Peters has only ever won two professional bike races in his career, but both were at Grand Tours – at the Giro d’Italia in 2019 and the Tour de France in 2020. What an incredible hattrick it would be if he won at the Vuelta, but he’s been off the boil of late and again is probably one to watch for now.

At a much bigger price is another who performed excellently at the Tour de L’Ain. OK, it wasn’t the strongest field in the world, but the young Finn Jaakko Hänninen seems to be on the upturn and at 225/1 is worth a small fun interest.

Alpecin-Deceuninck’s Jay Vine has already lost over 4mins. The Zwift Academy graduate is a quality climber and showed great form earlier in the season with overall runners-up spots at the Tour of Turkey and, behind Evenepoel, at the Tour of Norway. However, he had to pull out of the Tour de Suisse in June due to ‘maladaptation’ to the heat. He’s probably easing his way back in but definitely one to watch for breakaways later in the race.

His teammate Robert Stannard, however, is in great nick. He won the Tour de Wallonie in July, can climb and has a useful sprint too, which might come in very handy here. The Aussie is definitely one to keep on side and is worth a punt at decent odds.

Finally, Bahrain Victorious’ Fred Wright was in brilliant form at the Tour de France and was unlucky not to get a win. He carried that form through to the Commonwealth Games and the Londoner looks on the verge of a breakthrough win. Could this be his day?

This could be anything, so it’s worth just having a few breakaway plays at some decent odds.

Stage 5 Bets

0.5pts each way (3 places) Fred Wright @45/1

0.5pts each way (3 places) Robert Stannard @50/1

0.5pts each way (3 places) Harry Sweeny @80/1

0.25pts each way (3 places) Jaakko Hänninen @225/1

Posted 2159 BST Tue 23rd Aug 2022

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Vuelta a España at Oddschecker