Giro d’Italia 2024
Stage 5 – Genova > Lucca (178km)
Wed 8th May | Scheduled start: 12:45 CET
Profile
Stage 4 Result
1st Jonathan Milan (5/2F)
2nd Kaden Groves (22/1)
3rd Phil Bauhaus (66/1)
4th Olav Kooij (8/1)
Stage 4 Bets
Jonathan Milan 2pt win @5/2 – 1st
Great work this time from Lidl-Trek who stayed together near the front for the last 15km, Stuyven doing an especially good job to bring back Ganna when it looked like he’d flown. Milan launched pretty early but was able to sustain his huge power to hold off his rivals. Chapeau!
Stage 5 Preview
A third stage in a row that should end in a bunch sprint, but it’s lumpier than the previous two which could complicate things. The start is dangerous with a testing unclassified climb just 17km into the stage. If the break hasn’t gone by here, then attacks could start flying and it may become impossible for sprint teams to control.
There are no late hills this time, but there is a fourth-category climb that tops out 20km from home which some teams may use to blunt the finish of their rivals. 3.6km at 4% doesn’t look too alarming, so it will have to be ridden super hard to shell riders out the back.
The finish is quite technical – there’s a left-right combination 2.5km out where a good position will be vital, followed by an anti-clockwise half-loop around the historic old town. A roundabout with 300m to go will be taken on the left as the road curves towards the finish line.
Stage 5 Contenders
Jonathan Milan (7/4; 2.75) took an excellent win on stage 4 – that boy has some power. This tricky finale suits a well organised sprint train and Lidl-Trek have the best in the field. Milan is favourite to get a second win on stage 5.
Tim Merlier (3/1; 4.0) probably has better acceleration and a higher top speed than Milan but the Italian is able to maintain a bigger output for longer. So timing is everything for Merlier – if he’s in a good position with space to launch, then the Belgian has every chance to get his second win of the Giro.
Olav Kooij (8/1; 9.0) is clearly feeling better after his fall, finishing a good fourth on stage 4. Visma-Lease a Bike committed well to Kooij with Jan Tratnik pulling on the front and Christophe Laporte, finding some better form, delivering their fast man inside the final 500m. Given how good Kooij is on hills, Visma-Lease a Bike are likely to be one of the teams who’ll make it hard on the final climb.
Kaden Groves (12/1; 13.0) took an excellent second on stage 4 and he’s another who’ll benefit from a hard race – Alpecin-Deceuninck may join the likes of Visma and Lidl-Trek by driving the pace up the climb.
Phil Bauhaus (22/1; 23.0) is always a tempting price given how often he seems to make the frame and could well be dropped off in a good position by Andrea Pasqualon, but winning on a flat finish would seem a stretch against this field.
Fabio Jakobsen (33/1; 34.0) was dropped pretty quickly when the road went uphill – he’ll need to survive this one and be the designated sprinter otherwise why is he here. If he’s dropped, there’s still 20km to get back on but it isn’t ideal and he’s shown nothing so far to suggest he’ll get close. Tobias Lund Andersen (40/1; 41.0) will be the chosen one for dsm-firmenich PostNL if Jakobsen is absent.
Caleb Ewan (33/1; 34.0) hasn’t been well positioned so far and failed to break the top 10 in either sprint. It’s a big leap of faith to suggest he’ll have his arms in the air here.
Laurence Pithie (40/1; 41.0) was actually involved in the sprint on stage 4. He got onto Bauhaus’ wheel before getting boxed in and falling back. The harder the better for the Kiwi as he probably doesn’t quite have the speed to match the top guys, but it was encouraging to see him up there.
On balance, it’s more likely to end in a sprint rather than a breakaway win largely due to the number of teams who will want that conclusion, but it’s certainly not guaranteed. If a few of the sprint teams sneak someone into the break or it just becomes too big to chase, then the dynamic of the race changes.
Assuming it does come back, Milan is favoured due to the importance of a strong train around the tricky final kilometres but 7/4 isn’t that attractive, especially with the uncertainty around how the start will play out.
This has the potential to turn into a much harder day out than the sprint teams would ideally want and that could help one of the breakthrough stars of 2024. Laurence Pithie didn’t get the best of runs on stage 4 and could go close at a decent each-way price.
Stage 5 Bets
Laurence Pithie 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1
Posted 21:48 BST Tue 7th May 2024
Prices to win the stage are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Giro d’Italia at Oddschecker
[Giro d’Italia stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
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