Vuelta a España 2024
Stage 6 – Carrefour Jerez Sur. Jerez de la Frontera > Yunquera (185km)
Thu 22nd Aug | KM0: 12:59 CET
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Where: Starts from a Carrefour supermarket in Jerez and goes east across southern Andalusia towards Málaga.
Stage Type: Officially mountain though medium mountain would be more accurate.
Weather: Further south but a little cooler, or less hot at around 30˚C.
Climbs: One first-category climb (14.7km at 5.5%) followed by three third categories ending at the top of the last.
Start: Relatively flat for the first 20km before a couple of unclassified rises which favours strong rouleur types. They hit the lower slopes of the first-category Puerto del Boyar after around 55km so if the break hasn’t gone by then, it’ll be full of climbers.
Finish: The Alto de las Abejas summit finish averages a modest 4% across its 9km length.
Stage suits: Anyone who makes the breakaway. Will need some climbing legs but probably won’t be a mountain goat. With the final climb having such low gradients, a fast finish will almost certainly be needed to take the win.
Breakaway chances: Excellent. The stage isn’t tough enough for GC contenders and too hard for the fast men, so looks almost certain to be a breakaway day.
What will happen?: A big fight for the break which will be policed by Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe. Ideally, they’ll want it to go before the first climb otherwise it’ll be harder to control. Once established, it should be given a decent gap and allowed to win.
Stage 6 Contenders
Much will depend on when the break goes – either on the flat or the climb – in determining the type of rider that wins. Of course, they can’t be an overall GC threat though that doesn’t necessarily mean that Red Bull won’t loan the red jersey out.
Team Visma Lease a Bike:
Wout van Aert (7/1) will be after getting up the road to bag some green jersey points. On top form can climb with the best though could probably do with the break forming on the flat. Attila Valter (25/1) would also be a great card for Visma at a more attractive price.
UAE Team Emirates:
Marc Soler (33/1) may be given the option to get up the road, from where he’d be one of the favourites though probably would need to win solo. Isaac del Toro (80/1) was apparently given the option to go for the break on stage 4 but in the end finished less than a minute behind the winner. Should be well marked but could still infiltrate the front group if it goes on the climb.
Ineos Grenadiers:
Jhonatan Narváez (10/1) finished a good seventh on stage 5 so appears to have recovered well from his nasty fall on stage 2. The Ecuadorian champion is an excellent puncheur and a very fast finisher.
Soudal Quick-Step:
Mauri Vansevenant (66/1) had a dig off the front on stage 3 so clearly has a bit of a free hand. Can climb and has a fast finish.
Lidl-Trek:
Mathias Vacek (33/1) is exactly the type of strong man who will hope the break forms on the flat, and then the impressive young Czech has every chance. Patrick Konrad (80/1) has a fast finish for a climber and is on top form.
Decathlon-AG2R La Mondiale:
Bruno Armirail (50/1) is an engine though probably has to win solo. Clément Berthet (100/1) has a string of good results in one-day races without getting a breakthrough win. Victor Lafay (33/1) is stage hunting at this Vuelta though hasn’t yet hit his form of last year. Valentin Paret-Peintre (66/1) got his win in the Giro d’Italia and would be better suited by a steeper final climb though isn’t slow on the line.
Alpecin-Deceuninck:
Quinten Hermans (40/1) can climb and sprint and may be Alpecin’s chosen card.
Israel-PremierTech:
Marco Frigo (150/1) hasn’t quite returned to his Giro d’Italia form from last year but is clearly talented at a big price. Dylan Teuns (33/1) is off to Cofidis after a disappointing couple of seasons at IPT but has the attributes to go close and Corbin Strong (80/1) can’t be written off if the break settles before the climb.
Lotto Dstny:
Andreas Kron (12/1) looks tailormade for this and finished only 40secs behind Roglič on stage 4, ahead of plenty of GC contenders – he’s sure to try to get up the road and could collect the red jersey as well as the win. Victor Campenaerts (40/1) is looking lively after his Tour de France stage win and will be after another victory here to complete the Grand Tour set. Thomas De Gendt (150/1) would have to roll back the clock a bit but can’t be entirely ruled out.
EF Education-EasyPost:
Jefferson Cepeda (80/1) has shown good form this year and with Rui Costa crashing out on stage 5 is probably the team’s best card.
Movistar:
Pelayo Sánchez (25/1) showed great form at last year’s Vuelta which earned him a move to Movistar. Can climb and showed he also has a sprint when beating Julian Alaphilippe in the Giro earlier this year. Oier Lazcano (40/1) is another excellent card who should be pushing to make the break before the first climb.
Bahrain-Victorious:
Torstein Træn (250/1) won a mountain stage at the Tour de Suisse from the break and is an interesting triple-figure price.
Team Jayco AlUla:
Mauro Schmid (20/1) was hanging round the back a lot on stage 5 so he was either suffering more than others or saving his legs as much as possible. Either way, this is an excellent parcours for the former Giro stage winner and he comes in on good form. Filippo Zana (80/1) was in the doomed break on stage 4 but can try his luck again here.
Stage 6 Bets
We need a few going for us here as plenty will be after getting in the break. These fellas are on form and have the attributes to go close.
Andreas Kron 2pts win @14/1
Mauro Schmid 1pt each way (5 places) @22/1
Marc Soler 1pt each way (5 places) @25/1
Mathias Vacek 1pt each way (5 places) @33/1
Patrick Konrad 0.5pts each way (5 places) @80/1
Posted 22:14 BST Wed 21st Aug 2024
Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
Stage 6 Result
1st Ben O’Connor (250/1)
2nd Marco Frigo (150/1)
3rd Florian Lipowitz (250/1)
4th Clément Barthet (150/1)
5th Cristián Rodríguez (150/1)
[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]
