Vuelta a España 2024

Stage 7 – Archidona > Córdoba (180km)

Fri 23rd Aug | KM0: 13:25 CET

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Where: Starting near Málaga in southern Andalusia, going north to Córdoba.

Stage Type: Hilly, but basically flat with one hill at the end.

Weather: Hot again – mid 30˚Cs.

Climbs: One classified – the second-category Alto del 14% (7.4km at 5.6%) – which, unsurprisingly given its name, touches 14% a few kilometres from the top.  

Start: Flat and rolling terrain which should help teams manage a small breakaway but also gives strong rouleurs the chance to put those teams under pressure.

Finish: The Alto del 14% peaks 25km from home but then plateaus for a further 10km before the descent leaving a further 10km of flat road to the line.

Stage suits: Fast finishing puncheurs, fast men who can climb, rouleurs (if the break goes all the way or as a late attack) and maybe even GC riders if the climb is ridden super hard. Just them then.

Breakaway chances: Not without a chance but less than 50/50.

What will happen?: Bit tricky this one. If a group of strong riders get away, they might not come back, however, there should be enough teams (Visma Lease a Bike for sure) who think they have a shot in this final to control a manageable breakaway. The peloton will split on the final climb and then riders will scramble to get back on to contest the reduced group sprint.

Stage 7 Contenders

Wout van Aert (7/4; 2.75) tried a few times to make the break on stage 6 before saving his bullets for another day, specifically this one. Visma Lease a Bike will ride for Van Aert who has the explosiveness to make the selection on the final climb, or at least stay close enough to catch up and contest the sprint. From there, he’ll be difficult to beat.

Kaden Groves (3/1; 4.0) is a decent climber but probably not good enough to stay near the front on double-digit gradients, so he’ll have to chase back on. The price looks short on that basis.

Pavel Bittner (12/1) won his two stages in the Vuelta a Burgos on lumpy parcours and sees himself as more of a classics man rather than pure sprinter, so has every chance of staying near the front up the climb. It would be some performance by the young Czech to double-up like that on Grand Tour debut though.

Corbin Strong (12/1) is potentially the best ‘climber’ of all those with a sprint and has a great chance of a breakthrough win here.

Jhonatan Narváez (20/1) is very nippy up sharp climbs and fast in the finish as shown by his win on the opening stage in the Giro d’Italia this year. If he’s recovered well from his nasty crash on stage 2 then should be at the sharp end of affairs come the end.

Andreas Kron (33/1) was one of the big favourites for stage 6 and an even bigger one after making what looked like the decisive break before the first climb. As we know, things got a bit more complicated after that, but this is another chance. Did crash near the end of stage 6 though, otherwise would be half the price.  

Lennert Van Eetvelt (33/1) is perhaps the fastest on the line of all the GC contenders and offers another card.

Victor Campenaerts (40/1) is a third option for Lotto Dstny and seems likely to try for the break though surely will be a marked man.

Stefan Küng (28/1) could win either from a break or a late attack, however, despite his unusually high finish in the stage 5 sprint, would probably need to arrive solo. He looks in good nick though.  

Primož Roglič (80/1) looks a big price if it gets super selective on the climb and none of the faster men are able to get back on.

Stage 7 Bets

Ineos Grenadiers have had a bit of stinker so far but Jhonatan Narváez can turn their fortunes around to some degree (before he leaves for UAE Team Emirates) with a win at a biggish price.

Jhonatan Narváez 1pt each way (4 places) @20/1

Posted 23:28 BST Thu 22nd Aug 2024

Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

Stage 7 Result

1st Wout van Aert (7/4F)

2nd Mathias Vacek (40/1)

3rd Pau Miquel (150/1)

4th Stefan Küng (28/1)

[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]