Vuelta a España 2022

Stage 7 – Camargo > Cistierna (190.0km)

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Stage 6 Result

1st Jay Vine (11/1)

2nd Remco Evenepoel (14/1)

3rd Enric Mas (20/1)

Stage 6 Bets

1pt each way (3 places) Simon Yates @25/1

0.5pts each way (3 places) Pavel Sivakov @50/1

1pt win Alexey Lutsenko @14/1

Yates attacked on the final climb and was in a group of five off the front with Sivakov. But as Evenepoel put the hammer down, they paid for their efforts in trying to follow and fell back to finish in the group with Roglič. That’s certainly shaken up the GC and given us plenty of insights to take going forward.

Stage 7 Preview

Stage 7 has a curious profile – up a first-category climb that starts about halfway through and then a steady 65km descent to the finish line in Cistierna as we continue our route west across northern Spain. So it’s not a true mountain stage and can’t really be described is hilly either. The climb is long at 22.4km with an average gradient of 5.5% but the road starts rising a good 30km before the measured section.

GC teams are likely to have an eye on the two Asturian mountain stages this weekend, so it looks like one for the breakaway and with the lack of steep gradients on the climb all sorts of different riders might fancy taking their chance up the road.

Stage 7 Contenders

The 65km from the top of the climb to the finish make this an intriguing puzzle and it’s tricky to predict how it will play out. The winner is going to need some climbing legs, maybe a bit of rouleur/time trial ability to maintain any gaps forged over the top and then probably a sprint to win from a reduced group.

Trek-Segafredo’s Mads Pedersen has been installed the favourite at around 5/1 and you can see why. He’s unlikely to be distanced on these gradients and then of course has one of the fastest sprints in the peloton. He’ll need at least one teammate with him though as he’s likely to be lent on considerably should he be in the front group – it could be tricky to hold it together for 65km.

It’s not always a good thing to be the fastest rider in a breakaway group as Bahrain Victorious’ Fred Wright found out on stage 5. Is this climb too long and hard for him? Perhaps, but given his form, I think he has to be in the selection pot. Unfortunately, there’s no 40/1 about him this time – the shorter 14s will have to be win only.

Ineos Grenadier’s Ethan Hayter must also be a big player for this. The climb is long but he should get over it and, like Pedersen, is very fast in the sprint. He also shouldn’t have to worry about his positioning for which he’s often criticised. There’s 9/1 about the Brit which is plenty short enough.

Power climber/rouleur with a bit of a sprint says Bob Jungels to me. He’s started the Vuelta quietly, no doubt trying to build his form to be active in some breakaways deeper into the race. Could he go for this one? Or will he wait for the more mountainous terrain? At 80/1 he’s worth a small interest each way.

Jungel’s teammate Jaakko Hänninen made the break for us on stage 5 before being taken out by a Shimano neutral service car. He doesn’t seem too badly hurt though and is worth another go at huge odds.

Of a similar profile to Jungels is Lotto-Soudal’s Thomas de Gendt. Although not quite as prolific as he was a few years ago, he can still pull out a special breakaway ride now and again as he showed at this year’s Giro d’Italia. We should also look out for his teammate Harry Sweeny who was very active in trying to make the break on stage 5.

After a great win for Jay Vine on stage 6, could we see Alpecin-Decueninck go back-to-back? Robert Stannard finished only a couple of minutes behind what would be considered GC men on stage 6 which shows his climbing legs are good and we know he packs a fast sprint. Let’s go in again on the Aussie, albeit at shorter odds than were available on stage 5.

Rudy Molard failed to hold on to the red leader’s jersey by just 21secs on stage 6 and the Groupama-FDJ team put in a shift to try to keep him in contention. But they have options to bounce back here with both Quentin Pacher and Jake Stewart looking in very good order. Of the two, probably Pacher is the most likely to make it to the top of the climb at the front.

One man we expect to be up the road is Team DSM’s Nikias Arndt, mainly because he told us so in an interview before stage 5. There’s no doubt he’d be one of the fastest in a reduced sprint and appears to have found some of his old form with a third at the Tour of Poland and a runners-up spot at the German nationals, but he struggled a bit on the climbs on stage 5 and will do well not to be distanced before the top.

All in all, plenty could get involved in this so casting the net wide is the order of the day.

Stage 7 Bets

1pt win Fred Wright @14/1

1pt each way (3 places) Robert Stannard @25/1

0.5pts each way (3 places) Thomas de Gendt @40/1

0.5pts each way (3 places) Harry Sweeny @80/1

0.5pts each way (3 places) Bob Jungels @80/1

0.25pts each way (3 places) Jaakko Hänninen @500/1

Posted 2203 BST Thu 25th Aug 2022

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