Vuelta a España 2022

Stage 8 – La Pola Llaviana/Pola de Laviana > Colláu Fancuaya. Yernes y Tameza (153.4km)

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Stage 7 Result

1st Jesus Herrada (50/1)

2nd Samuele Battistella (33/1)

3rd Fred Wright (14/1)

Stage 7 Bets

1pt win Fred Wright @14/1 – 3rd

1pt each way (3 places) Robert Stannard @25/1

0.5pts each way (3 places) Thomas de Gendt @40/1

0.5pts each way (3 places) Harry Sweeny @80/1 – 5th

0.5pts each way (3 places) Bob Jungels @80/1

0.25pts each way (3 places) Jaakko Hänninen @500/1 – DNS (void)

Heartbreak. After the break held off the bunch brilliantly, Wright (who by then was odds-on favourite to win the stage in-running) found himself on the front and launched a bit too early allowing others to take a tow and come over him. Sweeny, who also made the break, came home in fifth.

De Gendt said he has some stomach problems so maybe best to stay off him for a while, and it seems Hänninen’s injuries from his stage 5 crash were more severe than first thought - he was a DNS.

Stage 8 Preview

We’re in the northern region of Asturias for a weekend of mountains starting with what looks a bit of a brute. There’ll be plenty of warming up on the rollers as the riders go straight up a second-category climb (6.4km at 7%) from the starting gate. The weaker climbers will be hoping the break gets away quickly or they could be in for a miserable time.

There are then a further four categorised climbs before the big test of the day – a first-category summit finish to Colláu Fancuaya. 10.1km at an average gradient of 8.5%, with the second half being the toughest and touching double digits through certain sections. There will be GC attacks here and any break still away will need a decent head start to make it home.

Stage 8 Contenders

The problem with flat starts is there can be a lot of luck involved in getting in the day’s break. Not so here – the strongest climbers should be able to get up the road. But do Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl have the troops to police it and ensure no potential GC threats – those sitting 3 or 4mins down – infiltrate the move? They’ll certainly be tested, and if not at the start then at some point on the course where teams – most likely Ineos Grenadiers or Jumbo-Visma – will look to isolate race leader Remco Evenepoel.

This could play out a number of ways and the constituents of the break will determine the day, but with it being quite a short stage, it could end up being breathless and chaotic. On balance, it looks like one for the break, but best have a GC saver just in case.

So we’re looking for very good climbers with a bit of time on GC. Astana-Qazaqstan’s Alexey Lutsenko is the first on the list. He tried to make the break again on stage 7 – a stage that didn’t really suit him – so we can be sure he’ll be up there again. The 20/1 about him is decent enough.

We saw a very welcome return to form for Mark Padun on stage 6. It was only just over a year ago that he won back-to-back stages of the Critérium de Dauphiné and looked an absolute world beater. He was backed in to something like 20/1 for the Tour de France but in the end didn’t even go, moved to EF Education-Easypost and struggled for results. Part of that is understandable given what’s going on in his home country and it would be an emotional win for the Ukranian. However, he’s only 4mins off the red jersey – will other teams want to allow him back in the GC race?

Alpecin-Deceuninck’s Jay Vine got his win a little earlier than expected given his quiet start to the race. Quite simply, he puts out big numbers on the climbs and assuming the win didn’t take too much out of him physically and emotionally he has every chance to double up. He’s short enough though at just 11/2.

AG2R Citroën’s Bob Jungels has been hiding in the peloton up to now. How is his form and will he come out to play? His price keeps getting bigger so we can’t abandon him now. A small interest at 150/1 for a repeat performance of his Tour win would be ideal.  

Ditto the above for Groupama-FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot. On top form he’d be one of the big favourites but we simply don’t know how he’s going. His price of 14/1 seems a bit short considering.

It’s been a breakthrough year for Bahrain Victorious’ Santiago Buitrago. A win at the Giro d’Italia and then another at the Vuelta a Burgos earlier this month. He appears to be going well enough and made a move on the Pico Jano climb on stage 6, though he did lose 15mins on stage 7, presumably caught behind a split in the peloton. That may have been deliberate and he now has freedom to chase stages. This looks good for him and is a well-backed 12/1.

We shouldn’t overlook his teammate Wout Poels either. A great climber though often in the services of others. Now that both Buitrago and the struggling Mikel Landa are out of the GC battle he may get more freedom to stage hunt and is around the 25/1 mark.

If it comes down to the GC men, of course Evenepoel is the leading fancy but this is the first big test of both him and his team in defending a Grand Tour favourite. You can’t follow every attack and there may be a situation where he allows certain riders to take some time that are not direct threats to the jersey. Or he may just attack early himself and blow everyone away! There could be a number of career defining stages coming up for Evenepoel over the next two weeks and it should be a great watch.

Jumbo-Visma’s Primož Roglič looked vulnerable on stage 6 and was lent on by about a dozen GC hopefuls in order to minimise their time losses to the Belgian. But as his legs fill up with work missed due to his injuries from the Tour he should get better as the race goes on. At some point he’ll be a good price for a stage and win it. The 9/1 is tempting.

The steeper gradients on the final climb suit Movistar’s Enric Mas, and he’s looking very good. But he rarely wins so the place money on 14/1 doesn’t appeal.

Of the Ineos Grenadiers quarter of GC hopefuls, Pavel Sivakov looks the strongest but if things get tactical we could see Richard Carapaz, Tao Geoghegan Hart or Carlos Rodriguez on the attack to provoke a reaction. This one should be good!

Stage 8 Bets

1pt each way (3 places) Alexey Lutsenko @20/1

2pts win Santiago Buitrago @ 12/1

2pts win Mark Padun @11/1

0.25pts each way (3 places) Bob Jungels @150/1

1pt win Primož Roglič @9/1

Posted 2242 BST Fri 26th Aug 2022

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