Tour de France 2022

Stage 7 – Tomblaine > La Super Planche des Belles Filles (176.3km)

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Stage 6 Result

1st Tadej Pogačar (10/1)

2nd Michael Matthews (18/1)

3rd David Gaudu (40/1)

4th Tom Pidcock (25/1)

Stage 6 Bets

1pt each way (3 places) Alberto Bettiol @28/1

1pt each way (4 places) Quinn Simmons @66/1

1pt win Matej Mohorič@14/1

1pt win Michael Matthews @18/1 – 2nd

So much for a calm day. Simmons made the break but it never really looked like making it home due to its size and who was in it. Mohorič tried a trademark downhill attack in the final that didn’t stick. Bettiol appeared to be looking after Powless – perhaps penance for his mistake yesterday. And Matthews found one better than him in the sprint – Pogačar. Another near miss.

Watch the final km here.

Stage 7 Preview

We’ve already had a few GC skirmishes – on the cobbles of stage 5 and then unexpectedly on the uphill finish to stage 6 – but we haven’t yet seen how they all compare on a proper climb. La Super Planche des Belles Filles is a proper climb. The final 2km go north of 20% and it’ll be a slow grind up to the line.

Although labelled a mountain stage, the terrain leading up to the first-category finale is not as taxing with just two short third-category lumps to get over. There will be a shake-up of the GC standings though the time gaps are unlikely to be huge. But will that showdown be for the stage or is this one for the breakaway?

Stage 7 Contenders

From Chris Froome 10 years ago to the time trial in 2020 that secured Tadej Pogačar his first Tour win, La Planche des Belles Filles has seen a number of famous victories.

But the last time a road stage ended here – in 2019 – it was Dylan Teuns that won from a breakaway. The winner of La Flèche Wallone earlier this season is a specialist on uphill finishes and appears to have ridden into some form with a solid 6th today. He’s available at 20/1 for a repeat performance but may find it harder to make the break at only 3mins down. That depends on UAE – are they happy to give up the yellow jersey to a rider that’s not a genuine overall contender?

Will the break take the day? As ever, that depends on its composition and tactics behind. As we saw on stage 6, if the mix isn’t right and there’s desire to chase behind then it’ll be difficult for them to stay away.

Should it all come back together, the big favourite is Pogačar. It seemed greedy of him to take stage honours into Longwy (especially with stage pick Matthews in second!) but he’s clearly not handing out any gifts. His price is very short – about 15/8 – which isn’t really a betting prospect.

When Teuns won, the leading GC rider that day was actually Geraint Thomas. Not someone you’d associate with nipping up high gradient climbs but this one is so steep it’s more like leg press reps at the gym. Thomas is available at triple-figure odds here which looks big.

Ineos Grenadiers’ have other options. They have four men in the top 8 on GC and all them might fancy their chances here. Adam Yates, Dani Martínez, and Tom Pidcock are all quick in a finish. Of the three, Martínez at 40/1 – so impressive at the Tour of the Basque Country a few months ago – looks decent value, but with Pogačar we could just be playing for a place.  

Which probably rules out Jonas Vingegaard for a wager. The 8/1 available isn’t worth an each-way punt so it’s best to look elsewhere.

Team DSM’s Romain Bardet came into this looking for stage wins but is still high on GC. If he’s maintained his excellent form from the Giro d’Italia – and he hasn’t put a foot wrong so far – then he could also be in the mix at a big-looking 80/1.

Fellow Frenchman David Gaudu is another with a good finish on him, assuming he’s still with the leaders at the end.

At just 4secs down on GC, there’s plenty of motivation for Neilson Powless to contest the final. Though perhaps preferring a longer climb, he showed a decent kick to chase home Aleksandr Vlasov at the Tour de Suisse last month. Bora-hansgrohe appear all-in for Vlasov who so far has managed to avoid any catastrophes. That’s a lot of pressure for the young man but he has a chance here to cement his podium contender status.

The flat start – making the break easier to police – and the big summit finish tip the stage towards a GC rather than breakaway winner. But you never know – if UAE don’t ride, will other teams take it up just to set up Pogačar for another win? So we best look at some breakaway options. It’s a long list so let’s find reasons to rule some out.

Thibaut Pinot might save himself for deeper into the race when more mountain points are available in the middle parts of stages. He could kill himself here for the sake of four points and there are more clear-cut breakaway stages ahead.  He could also be a big help to Gaudu.

So too Michael Storer who’s been hanging around the back of the peloton trying to avoid trouble since the start. I think he would’ve joined the grupetto in the time trial if he could. I don’t think it’s because his legs have gone. I think he’s saving himself to either help Gaudu in the mountains or stage hunt – but like Pinot, he’d be wise to wait until later.  

Storer has had company in the rear with Ruben Guerreiro. He’s as short as 14/1 for this and was flying coming into the Tour. But I suspect his falls in the early stages have knocked him back a bit, otherwise he’d have been up at the pointy end on stage 6 which was winnable for his type of rider. Plus, EF Education-Easypost have both Powless and Urán to look after now.

Second to Teuns in 2019 was Trek-Segafredo’s Giulio Ciccone. On his day, Ciccone can climb with the best, however, he rode the Giro d’Italia and then took a break so may need time to build up his form again.

Another Trek man that rode the Giro was Bauke Mollema, but his form appears to have carried through – he won the Dutch time trial championship and then showed well in Copenhagen. We haven’t seen much since but he might fancy warming the legs up here. There’s 33/1 about him which isn’t massively generous but Trek are sure to want someone up there and he’s a great option.

TotalEnergies haven’t had the best Tour so far with many of their riders – Mathieu Burgaudeau, Anthony Turgis, Peter Sagan and Daniel Oss – seemingly on the floor more than their bikes, but one result was a standout. Pierre Latour – white jersey winner in 2018 – finished amongst the favourites on stage 6. He lost a significant amount of time on the cobbles and therefore is no GC threat. At 35/1, he’s a decent breakaway option who clearly has brought his climbing legs.

Considering that in all likelihood Pogačar will win stage 7, let’s have some small each way plays at decent prices.

Stage 7 Bets

0.5pts each way (3 places) Dani Martínez @40/1

0.5pts each way (3 places) Aleksandr Vlasov @25/1

0.5pts each way (3 places) Romain Bardet @80/1

0.5pts each way (3 places) Pierre Latour @35/1

0.5pts each way (3 places) Bauke Mollema @33/1

Posted 2214 BST Thu 7th July 2022

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Tour de France at Oddschecker