Tour de France 2022

Stage 8 – Dole > Lausanne (186.3km)

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Stage 7 Result

1st Tadej Pogačar (15/8F)

2nd Jonas Vingegaard (9/1)

3rd Primož Roglič (28/1)

4th Lennard Kämna (28/1)

Stage 7 Bets

0.5pts each way (3 places) Dani Martínez @40/1

0.5pts each way (3 places) Aleksandr Vlasov @25/1

0.5pts each way (3 places) Romain Bardet @80/1 – 8th

0.5pts each way (3 places) Pierre Latour @35/1

0.5pts each way (3 places) Bauke Mollema @33/1

Cruel on Kämna that. Pogačar won but looks like he has a fight on his hands with Vingegaard. Not a great day for the picks – neither Latour or Mollema made the break, Bora sent two men up the road which wasn’t a great sign for Vlasov who apparently crashed late on stage 6. He was dropped early and lost almost 2mins to his rivals. Martínez made 11th and Bardet 8th and must now be eyeing a possible podium.

Watch the agonising final stages.

Stage 8 Preview

After the opening stages in Denmark and a stage 7 start in Belgium, we visit the fourth country on this year’s Tour de France route as we hop over the Swiss border for a stage 9 finish in Lausanne. It’s a hilly route with four categorised climbs and has a punchy finish – a third-category rise that hits double-digit gradients inside the last 2km.

The start is flat for the first 30km before an uncategorised climb which should help the break form. And many will want to be in it as this looks like a day where it could go all the way.  

Stage 8 Contenders

This final looks too difficult for pure sprinters, so we’re looking for puncheur/classics sprinter types. Assuming they want to protect the yellow jersey, UAE Team Emirates need to police this break properly and make sure nobody within 5mins manages to infiltrate it. After that, they can take their foot off the gas. 

Will any other team ride? That depends on the size and make up of the breakaway. If a team’s chosen rider doesn’t make it, then they might pull to set up a bunch finish. Jumbo-Visma, BikeExchange-Jayco, EF Education-Easypost, Lotto Soudal and Alpecin-Deceuninck are favourites in that scenario.

Wout Van Aert has lit up the Tour de France with some extraordinary performances and is as short as 3/1 to win stage 8. If he decides to make the break then he probably will. And if he does, then he probably also wins the stage.

As with Tadej Pogačar, other teams may be thinking he’s getting greedy. The diplomatic thing to do would be for Jumbo-Visma to not chase the stage win with Van Aert, but maybe that’s old-fashioned. If they give the green light to someone else, then Christophe Laporte is a great option at a much more backable 25/1.

Pogačar himself has been installed as second favourite at around 10/1 which says something about his eagerness to take every opportunity available. The break would have to be brought back for him to attack on the final steep section – three in a row is possible, but no significant time would be taken so is it really necessary?

EF Education-Easypost will want to be involved. Magnus Cort was still active on the front on stage 7 which shows his legs are still decent after a busy week. He’ll be after mopping up the mountains points but the finish too suits him.

After his error of judgement on the cobbles – for which he apologised – Alberto Bettiol could pay the team back with a win here. The Italian is around 25/1 which looks decent on a stage that’s made for him.

Ruben Guerreiro appeared to find his legs on stage 7, finishing only 2mins behind the leader. A medium mountain stage breakaway is better for the Portuguese, but he’s more than capable of taking on this one too.  

How many options do stage hunting Trek-Segafredo have? Every move appeared to have a couple of Trek riders in it on stage 7. Mads Pedersen worked his socks off to get Giulio Ciccone into the break and then drove it forward only for the Italian to pull the plug when the hammer went down. After that, will Pedersen get his own chance here? There’s maybe a bit more climbing than ideal but it’s not impossible.

Quinn Simmons tried so hard to make the break on stage 6 and was finally rewarded – only to find himself with Van Aert and Jakob Fuglsang – a man he couldn’t beat and another that ensured the peloton pulled. He was still sprightly enough on stage 7 so that effort clearly didn’t burn him up completely. Maybe he’ll have more luck in the break this time? Again, the American opened up at triple-figure odds before being cut.

Bauke Mollema has been quiet. He tried once that I saw to make the break on stage 7. Was that because they were so committed to Ciccone? Does he not have the legs? Or is he biding his time? Not sure, but he’s fancied for this at around 22/1.

And lastly for Trek, Jasper Stuyven looked super strong on the cobble stage – 30secs closer to the break and the bridge would’ve been made. The short climbs suit and he’d surely go close if in the right move.

BikeExchange-Jayco have a decision to make on Michael Matthews. Do they try to get him in the break or chase it down? He’s already gone close to a stage win and this presents another big opportunity for the Aussie. However, I’d be wary of a more explosive rider getting a gap in that final kilometre that he couldn’t drag back, so the shortish price of 14/1 doesn’t appeal.

Perhaps due to the disruption and suspicion brought upon them recently, Bahrain-Victorious haven’t got going in this Tour de France. Dylan Teuns is the only rider to break the top 10 on a stage (twice – on stages 1 and 6).

They lost their leader, Jack Haig, and are still protecting Damiano Caruso for a high GC placing but it still seems like a poor return. We haven’t seen much of Matej Mohorič who so often animates races and that puts me off him, though he is very well fancied at around 14/1 fourth favourite. Teuns is the better option at twice the price but had a tough day out on stage 7.

That was with both Lennard Kämna and Max Schachmann which was an indication that all was not well with Aleksandr Vlasov. Perhaps the consequence of his fall on stage 6, his GC hopes now hang in the balance and it appears Bora-hansgrohe have switched to stage hunting mode.

How unlucky was Kämna? He deserved that win. Will he try again here? He certainly looks to have a win in him somewhere, but a mountain breakaway is more up his street. Plus he’s now only 3mins 26secs off GC and he’d be a dangerous guy to ‘lend’ the yellow jersey to.

So four breakaway options but with Laporte and Bettiol we’re still in the game if it all comes back together (assuming they’re not in the break that’s caught!).

Stage 8 Bets

1pt each way (4 places) Christophe Laporte @25/1

1pt each way (4 places) Alberto Bettiol @20/1

1pt each way (4 places) Quinn Simmons @66/1

1pt each way (4 places) Jasper Stuyven @40/1

Posted 2135 Fri 8th July 2022

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