Tour de France 2023

Stage 8 – Libourne > Limoges (200.7km)

Profile

Stage 7 Result

1st Jasper Philipsen (EvsF)

2nd Mark Cavendish (12/1)

3rd Biniam Girmay (40/1)

Stage 7 Bets

Dylan Groenewegen 0.5pts each way (3 places) @12/1 – 5th

Groenewegen was positioned well enough and looked to have a big chance inside the last 200m. But he got boxed in when Van der Poel moved left, lost speed and couldn’t produce the kick needed to challenge.

Stage 8 Preview

An interesting profile for the only remaining stage over 200km. Flat for two thirds of the route before a bumpy last 70km which includes three classified climbs. Crucially, the two fourth-category rises – 1.3km at 5.5% and 1.2km at 5.4% – are inside the final 20km and could see some late attacks.

Otherwise, teams with sprinters that can climb a bit should be able to keep it together for some kind of bunch finish. There’ll be a fight for a sharp left-hander inside the last 2km before a stiff 3% uphill drag to the line.

Stage 8 Contenders

Following his ridiculous ride on stage 6, Wout van Aert took no part in the sprint stage into Bordeaux, resting up for the battles ahead. And with a big mountain day for Jumbo-Visma and yellow jersey wearer Jonas Vingegaard on Sunday, will Van Aert be given licence to ride for the win here? This parcours looks ideal for him and considering he doesn’t yet have a stage win, will surely be given the option.

This is also a good finish for Mathieu van der Poel, so Alpecin-Deceuninck have a decision to make. Triple stage winner Jasper Philipsen is clearly flying and is useful on uphill finishes, but it’s a toss-up which one this favours more. Van der Poel has been integral in delivering Philipsen to his wins, so will there be a bit of payback here? It may be a case of deciding on the road – if Philipsen is struggling, he’ll give the green light to Van der Poel. It’s Philipsen who is favoured in the market – 11/4 compared to Van der Poel’s 6/1 – but not knowing who is favoured in the team makes either a tricky bet.  

On his best climbing form this is well within the capabilities of Caleb Ewan, who got squeezed out of contention inside the last 500m on stage 7 and sat up. The 9/1 looks ok but he’s finding a way not to win at the moment and following Ewan in Grand Tours has led to plenty of burnt fingers.

Yet again, Mads Pedersen was left frustrated and couldn’t get out to deliver his sprint. This is better for him – the uphill finish should create more space and the 14/1 looks big, though his best place so far is ninth.

You could argue (and Intermarché-Circus-Wanty did with an official protest to the commissaires) that Biniam Girmay had his chance of victory taken away when Philipsen forced him towards the barriers to get on Cavendish’s wheel. He probably didn’t have the speed to pass either, but third place was still a great result. He’s hit form at a good time too with stage 8 probably Girmay’s best chance of getting that landmark Tour win.   

Cofidis’ Bryan Coquard is going well with two top 10s and yet another who’s tailormade for this finish. Prolific at winning lower-level races (he’d notched 48 victories by the start of this season), he finally got his first WorldTour win at the Tour Down Under in January. This would be a special way to double up and a place is not out of the question at 20/1.

Magnus Cort has been quiet so far, but that should change as we enter the second week of racing as he starts looking for opportunities. He’s good on an uphill sprint but these days his best chance is probably with a breakaway win, which cannot be completely ruled out on stage 8. On paper, this looked very much in the balance, in which case someone like Fred Wright would also be a good option, though the consensus as the stage draws nearer is that there should be enough teams motivated to bring it all back together.

Let’s go for Jumbo Visma to put the hammer down over the last 30km, deaden the legs of rival sprinters and deliver Van Aert to his first stage win.

Stage 8 Bets

Wout van Aert 2pts win @4/1

Posted 21:01 BST 7th July 2023

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[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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