Tour de France 2023

Stage 7 – Mont-de-Marsan > Bordeaux (169.9km)

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Stage 6 Result

1st Tadej Pogačar (5/1)

2nd Jonas Vingegaard (7/4F)

3rd Tobias Johannessen (66/1)

4th Ruben Guerreiro (28/1)

Stage 6 Bets

Mattias Skjelmose 1pt each way (4 places) @20/1

Felix Gall 1pt win @14/1

Thibaut Pinot 1pt each way (4 places) @25/1

Neilson Powless 0.5pts each way (4 places) @33/1

Jonathan Castroviejo 0.25pts each way (4 places) @100/1

Pogačar hits back! The GC battle is very definitely back on with Vingegaard now just 24secs ahead of the Slovenian. The least said about the picks the better. Powless paid for having to bridge to the break and had nothing left when it mattered, a busy and no doubt stressful few weeks appear to have finally caught up with Skjelmose, Gall and Pinot stayed with the favourites and finished pretty high up showing their form is still good, and Castroviejo was on domestique duty again – maybe he’ll get up the road later in the race.

Stage 7 Preview

After the GC battle in the mountains, the fast men are back in action on a largely flat stage 7 that should end in a bunch sprint. There’ll be a big fight for position into a very tight turn 3km from home, then it’s over the river and a 2km run that bends gently to the right towards the line. The south-easterly breeze forecast will ensure a fast tailwind finish.

Stage 7 Contenders

Following back-to-back stage wins, Alpecin-Deceuninck have shown they are the leading sprint team and so may be lent on to do most of the policing and chasing of the day’s break. Jasper Philipsen has been dominant, though Mathieu van der Poel’s turbo-powered lead-outs have helped massively. So it was surprising to see Van der Poel in Thursday’s breakaway on a stage that he was very unlikely to get a result in. The two stages in the Pyrenees will have tired the sprinters’ legs, but Philipsen won’t have suffered as much as others and is a short-price favourite at Evs.

Just as Caleb Ewan’s lead-out man, Jasper De Buyst, appeared to be recovering following a nasty tumble on stage 2, he lost another in Jacopo Guarnieri – out with a collarbone fracture following his clash with Fabio Jakobsen on Tuesday. Still, Lotto Dstny have put Ewan in winning positions in both sprints so far. He knows now he can match Philipsen’s speed and has a big chance to get his first Tour stage win in three years. The tailwind finish isn’t ideal for the Aussie as it negates his aero advantage but the 4/1 about him (compared to 14/1 earlier in the race) is an indication of how impressive he’s been.

Jakobsen got away with ‘just’ bruises and abrasions after the crash with Guarnieri but has struggled over the mountains and looked on the edge of quitting on stage 5. But he’s a fighter and is still in the race – how much he’s hurting we can only guess but is unbackable at just 7/1 considering he may not even compete in the sprint.

On stage 3, Luka Mezgec put Dylan Groenewegen in a good position inside the last 200m but the Dutchman didn’t have the legs to get around, his space stolen by Ewan. The Jayco AlUla lead-out was more disjointed on stage 4 and Mezgec went down in one of the many crashes, ending the day in hospital with a suspected broken collarbone. In the end, he was given the all clear and appeared to get through the mountains unscathed.

Bahrain Victorious have done a great job positioning Phil Bauhaus in the two sprints we’ve had so far, launching him to a second and a third. He’s still double figures though, at around 12/1 – can he prove the doubters wrong again?

Mark Cavendish has shown good speed (in fact he clocked the fastest speed of 73.3km/h in the finish in Bayonne) and, but for just missing a gap that Van der Poel closed when he delayed for a moment behind Mads Pedersen, could’ve been closer than his sixth and fifth place finishes so far. He’s lost his Astana-Qazaqstan teammate, Luis León Sánchez – another who broke his collarbone on stage 4 – which is a blow. But Cees Bol has also done well and Cavendish has a punchers chance of victory. He keeps getting shorter which is encouraging and is now 12/1 for the win.

Pedersen himself was delivered well by Jasper Stuyven 400m out on stage 4 but lacked the acceleration to challenge for the win. The harder stage into Limoges on Saturday suits the Dane better as he doesn’t seem to have the raw speed to challenge those at the top of the market on current form. He’s a classy rider though and with a bit of luck, the 28/1 might look big.

Wout van Aert appeared to be pulling on the front from gun to tape on stage 6 to set up Jonas Vingegaard – an incredible ride. For a normal rider, you’d say that rules him out of competing in this, but who knows with Van Aert? His legs are clearly improving which is scary and this tailwind power sprint suits. Van Aert will surely land a stage win at some point and he’s 14/1 to take it here.

On Grand Tour debut, DSM-Firmenich’s Sam Welsford has struggled to compete in the super hectic Tour finales and hasn’t broken the top 10. He’s fast though and if positioned well could go close. The 20/1 about him isn’t terrible.

He’s shown nothing yet and his wingman is banged up, but 12/1 on Groenewegen looks big and on price, he’s the pick.

Stage 7 Bets

Dylan Groenewegen 0.5pts each way (3 places) @12/1

Posted 21:51 BST 6th July 2023

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[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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