Giro d’Italia 2023

Stage 8 – Terni > Fossombrone (207km)

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Stage 7 Result

1st Davide Bais

2nd Karel Vacek

3rd Simone Petilli

4th Remco Evenepoel

Stage 7 Bets

Primož Roglič 2pts win @7/2

Lennard Kämna 1pt each way (4 places) @40/1

Brandon McNulty 2pts win @8/1

Ben Healy 1pt each way (4 places) @14/1

Well, what an anti-climax that was. Perhaps deterred by the length of the stage and the headwind climb, no GC team was willing to ride so we ended up with a stalemate, and let’s be honest a complete bore fest.

Stage 8 Preview

We continue north for what on paper looks like a guaranteed breakaway day but after the shambles of stage 7, who knows? There are 10km of uphill from the gun which ought to help a strong break to form and given that the climbs along the route are not hard enough for general classification favourites to make a difference, it should be allowed to go all the way.

The three classified climbs are crammed into the last 50km and include a double ascent of the fourth-category Cappuccini which is 2.8km at 7.9% as well as the longer second-category Monte Delle Cesane which has a section nearing 20% – a perfect launchpad for the best climbers within the break to make the difference.

Stage 8 Contenders

Will any team be willing to ride and chase down the break? Only in two scenarios – if a GC threat somehow infiltrates the break or if a team with a classics sprinter think they can set their man up for a reduced sprint. Both are possible but unlikely and those types of sprinters – we’re thinking of Jayco-AlUla’s Michael Matthews and EF Education Easypost’s Magnus Cort – are probably better off getting in the break than making their team work all day to bring it back.

We saw with his win into Mende at last year’s Tour de France that Matthews can excel on these short, sharp climbs (that final ascent was 2.9km at 10.5%!) but is he riding at that kind of level in this Giro? Bling is fancied though at around 16/1. Cort is clearly still building his form for this year’s Tour but is very dangerous and could easily pull a big win out the bag. The Dane is slightly shorter at 14s.  

EF Education Easypost have other cards to play – second into Mende that day was Alberto Bettiol (he was also, agonizingly, a stage pick). This is perfect for the Italian too but he had a troubled spring campaign following a heavy fall in Strade Bianche and sickness before the Tour of Flanders. He’s big at around 40/1 but, like Cort, is planning the Giro-Tour double and therefore likely to be a little undercooked. Let’s save Cort and Bettiol for later in the race.

Ben Healy tried and tried to make the break on stage 4 but the elastic wouldn’t snap. He admitted himself that he needs to be a bit smarter in using his efforts though no tactics will be necessary to make the break here with that uphill start – just great legs, which the Irishman seems to have right now. It’s not original, but Healy must be a pick.

The climbs look too hard for Mads Pedersen so Trek-Segafredo will look for others that can get up the road. Bauke Mollema and Natnael Tesfatsion appear the likeliest candidates. Mollema has been quiet and is clearly still building his form – let’s keep a watching brief on him, but Tesfatsion has been active and looked for a while like making the break on stage 4. Crucially, the Eritrean is also quick on the line which is always handy. At a very decent 66/1, Tesfatsion is in the pot.

Another fast-finishing climber is Bora-Hansgrohe’s Patrick Konrad. Despite having a two-pronged GC attack, the former Tour de France stage winner should be given some licence to get ahead. He comes in on great form after a second place at the Eschborn-Frankfurt one-day race and eighth at Liège-Bastonge-Liège. He’s had a few near misses at the Giro – this is a great chance for a second Grand Tour win.

Unhindered by domestique duties for UAE Team Emirates, Brandon McNulty appears to have a free hand which makes him a big danger as essentially a GC man in breakaway company. McNulty is the joint favourite with Healy and could simply ride away from his rivals on the steeper slopes. However, he may want to keep some legs back for the time trial on Sunday so, on balance, let’s leave him out – you can’t back ‘em all!

Stage 8 Bets

Ben Healy 2pts each way (3 places) @10/1

Patrick Konrad 1pt each way (4 places) @25/1

Natnael Tesfatsion 1pt each way (4 places) @66/1

Posted 21.23 BST 12th May 2023

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