Giro d’Italia 2023

Stage 7 – Capua > Gran Sasso d'Italia (Campo Imperatore) (218km)

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Stage 6 Result

1st Mads Pedersen (11/4F)

2nd Jonathan Milan (13/2)

3rd Pascal Ackermann (33/1)

Stage 6 Bets

Fernando Gaviria 1pt each way (3 places) @16/1 – 5th

If the stage had been 10m shorter then we would’ve had a winner. Gaviria launched early, got a decent gap but was caught just before the line and somehow didn’t even make a place. Disappointing as he showed the speed to win and may not be that price again.

Stage 7 Preview

We start just outside Naples in Capua before heading back north through the Apennines for the first mountain stage of this year’s Giro d’Italia. It’s long at 218km and ends with a summit finish up the Gran Sasso d’Italia – a huge climb of 45km that’s been divided into two classified parts. The gradients are not severe until the final 4km which average 8.2% hitting a maximum of 13%, but the altitude and potentially the extreme cold will test the riders’ fortitude.

The start is pretty flat for the first 60km which will make it difficult for lightweight climbers to make the breakaway which will need several minutes at the foot of the final climb if they’re to win the day.

Stage 7 Contenders

A summit finish on such a lengthy climb should tilt the stage towards one of the general classification favourites taking the day, however, it all depends on the strength of the climbing talent in the break and which teams ride.  

On stage 6, Ineos Grenadiers showed a willingness to drive the peloton hard. Whether that was for positioning on descents, to test the fragility of Remco Evenepoel or maybe a bit of both, they’re definitely looking the strongest team right now and we could see them hit the front once the stage heats up.

Apart from those inside the Soudal-Quick Step camp, nobody really knows the extent of Evenepoel’s injuries but he has to be tested here to expose any weaknesses, and so Jumbo-Visma and maybe even Bora-Hansgrohe may also look to push the pace.

The unexpected dry weather in Napoli was a godsend for the world champion – he got through stage 6 unscathed and is back now as favourite to win the Giro d’Italia. Will that flip-flip again back in favour of Primož Roglič by the end of stage 7?

Roglič also took a tumble somewhere on stage 6 as evidenced by his torn shorts but didn’t appear to be badly affected. These kind of uphill finishes have been the Slovenian’s bread and butter over the years and should the GC men be fighting it out for the win, it would be unwise to back against him. Unfortunately, the best price of 7/2 reflects that.

Evenepoel himself is fast on punchy uphill finishes and he could well win, but it would be something of a leap of faith to back him after his spills on stage 5. Tao Geoghegan Hart is in top form after his win at the Tour of the Alps where he showed himself to be nippy on the line, though perhaps not on Roglič’s level. There’s 9/1 available about the Brit.

We could also see some early hit-outs on the Gran Sasso by riders hoping to be given some rope. Thibaut Pinot, Santiago Buitrago, Lorenzo Fortunato and Lennard Kämna appear the likeliest candidates for such a move. Of those, Fortunato has the most time on GC at around 5mins so the breakaway is also an option for the Italian on great form. Bora-Hansgrohe have two GC cards to play with both Kämna and Aleksandr Vlasov so an early attack by the German makes sense and the 40/1 available is attractive.

For the breakaway, UAE Team Emirates Brandon McNulty looked in super shape when trying to make the break on stage 4, however, Soudal Quick-Step chased him down repeatedly. He’s no longer a GC threat at over 10mins down and so could be given more leeway this time, but will GC teams by happy in a rival having a man up the road? The 8/1 about the American is short on a stage where a breakaway win is by no means guaranteed.

EF Education-Easypost’s Ben Healy was also impressive with his repeated attempts to forge the stage 4 breakaway. Saturday’s stage 8 also has potential for the break and he may save his legs for then, but if he does go forward he has a big chance of a breakthrough win.

This is a tricky one, so it’s probably wise to play all scenarios – a breakaway win, late attack and a GC saver. Should be a good one though!

Stage 7 Bets

Primož Roglič 2pts win @7/2

Lennard Kämna 1pt each way (4 places) @40/1

Brandon McNulty 2pts win @8/1

Ben Healy 1pt each way (4 places) @14/1

Posted 21.43 BST 11th May 2023

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Giro d’Italia at Oddschecker