Stage 19 – Mourenx > Libourne (207km)

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Stage 18 Result

1st Tadej POGAČAR (5/2)

2nd Jonas VINGEGAARD (5/1)

3rd Richard CARAPAZ (9/1)

Stage 18 Bets:

Miguel Ángel López 1pt each way (3 places) @16/1 

David Gaudu 2pts each way (3 places) @10/1

Dylan Teuns 0.5pts each way (3 places) @28/1

Sergio Higuita 0.5pts easy way (3 places) @20/1

Ion Izagirre 0.5pts easy way (3 places) @80/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

Well, there were no gifts in the end – not for the breakaway who were never given more than 1min 30secs, or for Gaudu who looked strong again but was luckless, or even to reward a late attack by Mas. UAE and then Pogačar himself chased everything down and the result was never really in doubt – barring disasters, Pogačar will win the yellow, polka dot, and white jerseys for the second year running.

The big GC loser was Urán who cracked on the Tourmalet, ultimately losing almost 9mins – a reminder that you never know how much fatigue riders are carrying.

Stage 19 Preview

A flat stage that should end in a sprint. However, this is the last chance for teams without a sprinter or time trial specialist to take a stage win, so Deceuninck–Quick-Step – who will probably have sole responsibility for policing the break – will have to be wary of a big group of strong rouleurs getting away. 

There’s a 2km fourth-category climb at the start of the stage which may allow a break to settle and we should immediately see how motivated teams are to make it a lively start or, considering how fatigued many riders will be, if they’d prefer to see a small break go clear for a more relaxed, controlled day.  

The intermediate sprint after 54km is uphill which should allow Colbrelli and Matthews to claw back some green jersey points off Cavendish, though with the final being flat and straight favouring the pure speedsters, they’re likely to cede those points and more on the line.

Contenders

This stage is all about whether Mark Cavendish gets and takes the opportunity to beat Eddy Merckx’s record of 34 Tour stage wins. Having made all the time cuts through the Alps and Pyrenees, the Manx man has two opportunities – this stage and stage 21 on the Champs-Élysées in Paris. To do it on the Champs would surely be how the script is written for the end of this sports movie, but sprinting can be chaotic and unpredictable so he won’t mind taking his 35th two days early if possible.

He’s very short – just 13/8 – so not really a betting prospect but it’s a sign of how far we’ve come. Who would’ve thought that a year ago, or even a month ago, that Cavendish would be on the verge of taking a fifth Tour stage victory and his second green jersey? Perhaps him alone.     

Deceuninck–Quick-Step have given some masterclasses in sprint leadouts and with the paucity of sprinters remaining in the race, it’s possible that they also have the second fastest man in the field in Michael Mørkøv. We saw him get up for second at a huge price into Carcassonne on stage 13 and if some green jersey rivals are about, we might see him make the places again. 

As mentioned, it’s possible that enough teams are motivated to form a strong break. And with only Deceuninck and maybe Alpecin–Fenix willing to ride, they might be allowed to contest the final. It would be wise then for Deceuninck to not just police the front but perhaps slip someone into any nascent breaks. Kasper Asgreen and Davide Ballerini are prime candidates should that be a tactic and unsurprisingly are both priced in the top half-dozen for the stage.

Wout van Aert has ridden himself into top form, even saying how strong he was feeling after stage 18. And though he may have bigger eyes on the stage 20 time trial, he might fancy this one too. He should get a leadout or at least dropped off near the front by Mike Teunissen, and though not a pure sprinter, can put so much power through the bike that he can challenge the fast guys. Teunissen himself may even be given the option in the final, leaving Van Aert to save himself for the time trial, but if it comes down to a sprint then Van Aert at 14/1 is a decent bet.

Though lacking the leadout firepower of Tim Merlier and Mathieu van der Poel, Jasper Philipsen has still been in decent positions in the last couple of sprints, but he hasn’t quite had the speed to get round Cavendish. It’s a possible headwind in the final, so timing could be crucial. If Philipsen kicks at the perfect moment then he certainly has a chance, but that’s a big if.  

Cees Bol has been pretty much the first out the back on each of the climbs in the second half of this race and is yet to worry the top five in the sprints so far. The 20/1 about him doesn’t appeal.

Movistar’s Iván García Cortina has looked strong in this Tour and it’s unfortunate he hasn’t had more opportunities in breakaways. We saw him get a jump on the sprinters and ultimately finish fourth on that messy final where Mørkøv snatched second, and it’s those uphill finishes that suit García Cortina. This isn’t one of them, but at the end of a Tour it might come down to who has the legs, so he’s not without a chance at around 22/1. 

If we are to get this big break that doesn’t come back, who might also be in it? EF Education–Nippo should certainly be motivated. Having seen Rigoberto Urán’s overall podium chances go up in smoke on stage 18, they risk leaving the race with nothing, despite riding well and being prominent on many stages. Stefan Bisseger will be saving himself for the stage 20 time trial and to be fair has looked knackered, so Magnus Cort is their best shot here. 

Trek–Segafredo have also been very active stage hunting pretty much the whole race and will want to be involved should a big break get clear. Both Jasper Stuyven and Toms Skujiņš would prefer lumpier terrain, but are strong and would be big players if the break battles for the win.

Stage 19 Bets

Wout van Aert 1pt each way (3 places) @14/1

Davide Ballerini 0.5pts each way (3 places) @16/1

Jasper Stuyven 0.5pts each way (3 places) @22/1

Posted 20.52 BST Thu 15th July 2021