Stage 18 – Pau > Luz Ardiden (129.7km)

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Stage 17 Result

1st Tadej POGAČAR (5/2)

2nd Jonas VINGEGAARD (4/1)

3rd Richard CARAPAZ (8/1)

Stage 17 Bets:

Tadej Pogačar 4pts win @5/2 – 1st

Enric Mas 1pt each way (3 places) @33/1

David Gaudu 1pt each way (3 places) @20/1 – 4th

Ion Izagirre 0.5pts each way (3 places) @50/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

Chapeau! The flat start made it almost impossible for climbers to get in the breakaway, so teams with polka dot jersey aspirations decided instead to peg the break and attack on the climbs. However, it was ultimately futile due to UAE’s high tempo and so the big winner in that competition (gaining 40 points on the line) and more importantly cementing his lead in the overall was stage winner Pogačar.

Despite relentless accelerations from about 8km out, Pogačar couldn’t shake the impressive Vingegaard or Carapaz – who tried to mug them both just before the flamme rouge – and so it was left to an uphill sprint in the last 100m which he was never going to lose. For the second day running, Guadu left it a bit late to attack from behind and was unable to bridge the 40sec gap to the front three.

Stage 18 Preview

The final mountain stage of this year’s Tour and although the yellow jersey may be as good as won, there’s still plenty up for grabs – podium positions, mountains classification, stage winner, and even the green jersey are all still in play. The stage 18 profile is not dissimilar to stage 17 – flattish for half the stage before going up probably the most iconic climb in the Pyrenees – the Col du Tourmalet (17.1km at 7.3%) – and ending with a summit finish at Luz Ardiden (13.3km at 7.4%).

The toughest gradients are in the second half of the Tourmalet where attacks may be launched either from GC contenders or climbers hitting out for the stage win. There’s a fourth-category climb 10km after the flag drop which could help the break form, but if not it could go on for a while, perhaps even to the foothills of the Tourmalet.

Contenders

UAE–Team Emirates rode a brilliant race on stage 17, looking like a proper yellow jersey team and clearly benefiting from having Marc Hirschi, Brandon McNulty, and Rafał Majka back on form after their spills earlier in the race. And now that Tadej Pogačar has his win and has reasserted his grip at the top of the GC, they can reap the benefits of that hard work and ride defensively all the way to Paris. Pogačar is clearly the strongest rider in the race , but just because he can chase riders down doesn’t necessarily mean he has to, or will.

It will fall to other teams to ride and if that in turn presents a stage winning opportunity then no doubt the Slovenian will take it, however. Another summit finish win here would also almost guarantee the polka dot jersey to complete a “double-treble” of yellow, polka dot, and white jerseys two years in a row. That might be frowned upon by other teams and directeur sportif pressure could be asserted to share the spoils somewhat should it look on the cards. For those reasons, the 2/1 about him for the stage looks unbackable. 

Similarly, there’s no onus on Jumbo–Visma to ride aggressively. Their man Jonas Vingegaard – who is a stronger time trialist than Ineos Grenadiers’ Richard Carapaz – only has to stay with the Ecuadorian to all but secure second place on the podium, an incredible achievement for a man who didn’t come into the race targeting GC.       

So it’s the British team that have to take responsibility to try to put time into Vingegaard, or perhaps more importantly, not to give Rigoberto Urán a sniff of a podium spot – Carapaz currently sits 1min 34secs ahead of Urán which is potentially bridgeable over a 30km time trial.

Ineos surprisingly lost Michał Kwiatkowski from their mountain train early on stage 17, perhaps suffering from his efforts the day before to make the breakaway, and then Tao Geoghegan Hart who has struggled since coming down on stage 1. They may try to get one of those up the road in order to help later, but in Geraint Thomas, Richie Porte, and Jonathan Castroviejo, they still have firepower to set an uncomfortably high pace in the front group.   

If the stage honours come down to the strongest riders in the race then it’s difficult to look past the top three of Pogačar, Vingegaard, and Carapaz, but we’ve seen that they’re quite evenly matched and are likely to mark each other – so the opportunity is there either for a breakaway victory, or perhaps more likely an attack by an in-form climber on the last ascent.

Enric Mas was very disappointing on stage 17, stating afterwards that he just couldn’t find his rhythm. He recovered somewhat in the final 10km to minimise his losses and actually moved ahead of Alexey Lutsenko on GC, but he never looked like a contender for the stage.

In fact, his Movistar teammate, Miguel Ángel López, perhaps for the first time this Tour, looked in much better form up there with the favourites. Unfortunately, he had to retreat to help Mas in his recovery, but he might be given his head here. The Spanish team will be desperate to get something out of this race and López is probably their best card at this time. At 16/1, “Superman” López is the first selection. 

Similarly for Groupama–FDJ, David Gaudu appears to be riding himself into some serious form. He’s contested for the stage two days running and given a bit of luck and a better-timed attack, the win is there for him. Clearly, others think the same as Guadu is very short at just 10/1. 

Both Bahrain Victorious’ Dylan Teuns and EF Education–Nippo’s Sergio Higuita rode well on stage 17, staying with the “best of the rest” of GC contenders up the Col du Portet. They have chances either from a breakaway or a late attack and are included in the selections. 

And finally, let’s give Ion Izagirre one last go – more likely from a breakaway than from a late attack, let’s hope the Basque man is let off the leash.

Stage 18 Bets

Miguel Ángel López 1pt each way (3 places) @16/1 

David Gaudu 2pts each way (3 places) @10/1

Dylan Teuns 0.5pts each way (3 places) @28/1

Sergio Higuita 0.5pts easy way (3 places) @20/1

Ion Izagirre 0.5pts easy way (3 places) @80/1

Posted 20.56 BST Wed 14th July 2021