Stage 20 – Libourne > Saint-Émilion ITT (30.8km)

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Stage 19 Result

1st Matej MOHORIČ (50/1)

2nd Christophe LAPORTE (66/1)

3rd Casper PEDERSEN (33/1)

Stage 19 Bets:

Wout van Aert 1pt each way (3 places) @14/1

Davide Ballerini 0.5pts each way (3 places) @16/1

Jasper Stuyven 0.5pts each way (3 places) @22/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

When a small group got clear and Alpecin pulled on the front, it looked like we’d have a controlled race ending in a sprint. But Deceuninck didn’t lend a hand and, sensing a lack of control, a bigger group split from the peloton and formed a break of 20 riders that was too big and too strong to bring back.

Plenty of attacks and skirmishes could’ve stuck (stage picks Ballerini and Stuyven both had several goes), but it was Mohorič who got the gap 25km from home and never came back for yet another solo win from a breakaway.

Stage 20 Preview

The second and final time trial of this year’s Tour, but we won’t see anything like the dramatic scenes we saw in the 2020 TT when Tadej Pogačar overhauled a 57sec deficit to Primož Roglič to take the yellow jersey.

The final two podium positions are still in play though with Jonas Vingegaard holding a slender 6sec lead over Richard Carapaz. The course is pretty flat and should favour the specialists, but it has a slight uphill rise over the final few kilometres of about 3% that the riders will need to be wary of. 

Contenders

Despite his amazing display last year, Tadej Pogačar was a surprise winner of the time trial on stage 5 mainly due to his patchy TT form since that day. He was a bet selection at 28/1 (though 40/1 was available in places on the morning of the race), but that was based on value rather than expectation that he’d deliver. But deliver he did, relatively comfortably by 19secs over long-time leader Stefan Küng.

And if Pogačar is on one of those special days then he’ll be difficult to beat. But surely he’ll be looking at a safety-first approach – he already has three stage wins (and a remarkable nine in total from three Grand Tour appearances) and has a big enough lead to stop for a coffee by the roadside and still be on the top step in Paris. Given that it’s completely unnecessary for him to go all in, the 5/2 about him is short. 

European and Swiss time trial champion Küng appeared to be sat in the “hot seat” pretty much all day on stage 5 only to be robbed right at the end by Pogačar. He of course has a big chance but it will ultimately come down to how he has coped with three weeks of hard racing. For that reason we may see some random results as fatigue will play a big role in the outcome.

Groupama–FDJ haven’t had the greatest Tour to say the least – their co-leaders Démare and Gaudu failed in their objectives and the team is winless – so there’s pressure on Küng to deliver in this. The Swiss is around the 9/4 mark as the bookies clearly think this is a three-horse race.  

And that third horse is stage favourite Wout van Aert. This is clearly a big target for the Belgian, stating before stage 19 that he wasn’t even considering getting involved in the sprint, preferring to save himself for the TT. After a slowish start by Van Aert standards, he seems to be getting stronger and stronger and I think he will win the time trial. I was expecting something a little bit bigger than the 21/10 available, but I think he has to be the pick.

Paris-Nice time trial and Tour de Suisse stage winner Stefan Bissegger was a lot shorter than the 7/1 available here for the stage 5 TT. And we’ll never really know how close he could’ve gotten to Pogačar as he suffered from the worst of conditions and almost went down on the slippery roads. He’s succeeded in actually coming down a couple of times since and has appeared tired at the back of the peloton on his debut Grand Tour. He’s no doubt talented, but is best avoided here.  

Danish time trial champion Kasper Asgreen has never really been allowed to chase stage glory himself in this Tour – team duties have come first. But he’ll definitely be targeting the win here and give Deceuninck–Quick-Step a sixth stage victory (and a strong favourites chance of seven on Sunday). Some might say that’s a bit greedy, as would a fourth stage win for Pogačar, but it doesn’t look like either are in the mood for gifting. 

Third on stage 5 was the find of this year’s Tour, Jonas Vingegaard. Initially riding in support of Primož Roglič, the young Dane has been a revelation. If his legs are still good, he has another chance of a place at 16/1 (note that he was 400/1 going into stage 5). 

Who else? Mattia Cattaneo at around 80s has ridden brilliantly all Tour and could be knocking on the door of a top five. German powerhouse Max Walscheid, at a best price of 200/1, finished sixth in the last day time trial in the Giro, showing he can still produce at the end of a long race. 

Bora–Hansgrohe’s Wilco Kelderman produced an inexplicably out-of-sorts display on stage 5 having had some decent results on the TT bike in the past, albeit on lumpier terrain than this. Unlike the majority of the field, the Dutchman does have something to play for – he sits in fifth, just 32secs behind Ben O’Connor on GC – and even though it’s not a podium, he’ll surely be looking to overhaul the Aussie. At a huge 325/1, Kelderman is a speculative, fun bet. 

Stage 20 Bets

Wout van Aert 3pts win @21/10

Wilco Kelderman 0.25pts each way (3 places) @325/1

Posted 20.48 BST Fri 16th July 2021