Stage 21 – Chatou > Paris Champs-Élysées (108.4km)

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Stage 20 Result

1st Wout VAN AERT (21/10)

2nd Kasper ASGREEN (9/1)

3rd Jonas VINGEGAARD (16/1)

Stage 20 Bets:

Wout van Aert 3pts win @21/10 – 1st

Wilco Kelderman 0.25pts each way (3 places) @325/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

Chapeau! Van Aert delivered pretty convincingly in the end by 21secs. Asgreen put in a flying last sector to occupy the “hot seat” earlier in the day, and only Van Aert got past him. As suspected, Pogačar rode conservatively to make sure he ended in one piece and will now be crowned Tour winner for the second year running in Paris on Sunday. Despite lots of potential changes lower down the GC top 10, in the end there were none.

Stage 21 Preview

For the GC men this is a largely ceremonial stage and assuming they all make it to the finish line, places will remain unaltered. But whilst they’re enjoying a sip of champagne (or maybe not with the yellow jersey in a team backed by the UAE), the sprinters and their teams have one last big goal to focus on.

To lift your arms on the Champs-Élysées is one of the most sought-after and prestigious additions to anyone's palmarès. To win on the Champs in green, beating Eddy Merckx’s record 34 Tour stage victories in the process is more like the closing shot of a barely believable sports movie.

Contenders

Can he do it? The bookies certainly think so. Mark Cavendish is odds-on at 4/7 (1.57 decimal or -175 US odds for international readers) to make it five stage wins this year, five wins on the Champs, and of course break that record that he doesn’t want to talk about. If his recent ill-treatment of work colleagues is a measure of how motivated he is to get this win, then he’s motivated.

The Manx man has the best leadout, the best poisson pilote in Michael Mørkøv, and evidently the fastest sprint of anyone left in the field. So it’s his to lose and is very much the likeliest winner, but is not a betting prospect at that price. 

After Wout van Aert’s time trial win on stage 20, I did wonder if Jumbo–Visma would give Mike Teunisson the option to go for the stage win here as they did on stage 19. The man who picked up the yellow jersey on stage 1 of the Tour two years ago in surprise fashion could’ve been rewarded for his hard work for others.

But if we’re to believe people’s word (always dangerous in pro cycling), Van Aert apparently stated after stage 20 that he will be the chosen sprinter up the Champs. It would complete a remarkable treble for the Belgian road champion – a mountain stage (and not just any – the double ascent of Mont Ventoux), time trial, and sprint stage victories in the same edition. At 7/1, Van Aert is the pick – but watch out for Teunisson!

Alpecin–Fenix’s Jasper Philipsen has been close with two seconds and three thirds. Given good positioning and a well timed kick he definitely has a chance. There’s a best price of 11/2 about Philipsen but I suspect he’ll fall a little short once again. 

Who else? Cees Bol hasn’t broken the top five and has generally looked knackered. Though he should get a decent leadout, the 18/1 about him does not appeal. 

The likes of Sonny Colbrelli, Michael Matthews, and Iván García Cortina probably need a tougher finish than this to challenge for the win. 

It’ll be the final time up the Champs for former winner André Greipel, so we’ll no doubt see a full leadout for him to maximise his position, which will be somewhere between 6th and 10th.

Finally, given the severe fatigue that many of the riders will be experiencing, could a breakaway or late attack have a chance of staying away? No.  

Stage 21 Bets
Wout van Aert 1pt each way (3 places) @7/1

Posted 19.52 BST Sat 17th July 2021

Stage 21 Result

1st Wout VAN AERT (7/1)

2nd Jasper PHILIPSEN (5/1)

3rd Mark CAVENDISH (4/7)

Stage 21 Bets:

Wout van Aert 1pt each way (3 places) @7/1 – 1st

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

Chapeau! For the first time in this Tour a sprint leadout took it to Deceunicnk–Quick-Step and when put under pressure with brilliant work by Mike Teunisson, Cavendish found himself blocked in without enough time to get around one of the greatest riders of this generation – Wout van Aert. Double chapeau to WVA – winning a mountain, time trial, and sprint stage. Absolutely ridiculous. I think that’s fair – Cavendish had big luck in running for his four wins in the Tour and especially before it, hopefully he’ll be back next year.

Overall Tour de France chapeau or no chapeau

Decent chapeau-ing all round with six winners and a healthy profit off the back of a tricky Giro. The race itself was a 5-star vintage for the first week, then faded somewhat when the general classification looked done and dusted. Overall it’ll be remembered for the incredible resurgence of Mark Cavendish and Tadej Pogačar cementing his place at the top of the three-week racers. We can hope for an in-form Egan Bernal and crash-free Primoz Roglic to push him a bit closer next year. 

Six winners:

Stage 5 – Pogačar @28/1

Stage 9 – O’Connor @14/1

Stage 16 – Konrad @40/1

Stage 17 – Pogačar @5/2

Stage 20 – Van Aert @21/10

Stage 21 – Van Aert @7/1

Meet me back here for the Vuelta a España in just four weeks’ time which starts with an individual time trial from Burgos’ Gothic Cathedral.

Total stakes: 123.5pts

Profit/Loss: +56.1pts (+45.4%)

Posted 19.15 BST Sun 18th July 2021