Stage 4– Redon > Fougères (150.4km)

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Stage 3 Result

1st Tim MERLIER (18/1); 2nd Jasper PHILIPSEN (18/1); 3rd Nacer BOUHANNI (40/1)

Recommended:

Caleb Ewan 3pts win @11/8

Jasper Philipsen 0.5pts each way (3 places) @18/1 – 2nd

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

Absolute chaos. We thought stage 1 was bad but a number of crashes devastated the peloton again, seriously affecting major players for both the sprint and the GC. Thomas dislocated his shoulder but miraculously lost only 26secs, however his performance in the time trial in two day’s time will surely be affected. 

With 10km to go, Roglič went down and Jumbo–Visma were left with a team time trial to get back to the front – he lost 1min 21secs and we wait to hear how bad his condition is. Their chase was held up by yet another spill on the descent into town which ended Jack Haig’s Tour and hampered Pogačar who managed to finish with the Thomas group. And then in the final itself, Ewan looked all over the stage winner until he got squeezed a little by Sagan, touched Merlier’s wheel in front and went down hard, breaking his collarbone. Another crazy day at the Tour.

Despite his injuries, Merlier was the chosen sprinter for Alpecin–Fenix and duly delivered, but with the devastation behind, his teammate Philipsen was able to follow him home in second – a very lucky chapeau for the bet selections.

Stage 4 Preview

Our mini-tour of Brittany ends with another flat stage that should end in a bunch sprint. After a very hectic first few days, many riders will welcome this significantly shorter stage at just over 150km with no categorized climbs. The intermediate sprint is quite close to the finish – only 35km out, so some green jersey challengers may decide to sit that one out and save themselves for the final. 

The final isn’t too technical, but there’s a sweeping right-hander just after the flamme rouge where positioning will be critical. The weather forecast looks promising and the riders should enjoy clear skies for the majority of the day.

Contenders

The whole complexion of the sprinter field has now taken a jarring shift after the events of stage 3. The fastest man on the startlist, Caleb Ewan, has now abandoned and we must reset and reevaluate the market as it stands whilst trying to judge who might be hurt from the spills of the day before. 

Tim Merlier recovered from an injury list as long as your arm after his fall on stage 1 to be primary sprinter for Alpecin–Fenix and duly delivered the win, albeit with a huge amount of luck – in my opinion Ewan would’ve comfortably won the stage had he picked a safer line, but he ended up getting squeezed and we know how it ended. At around 9/4, Merlier does not offer value as I see it – he’s fast, but having got his win, the biggest of his career, may struggle to double up much like in the Giro.

Who knows? They may even decide to back Jasper Philipsen in the sprint – their number two is available at a stingy 9/1.

Arnaud Démare was caught up in the crash that ended Jack Haig’s Tour. He looked a bit stunned sitting on the grass verge but crossed the finish line giving the thumbs up indicating that no serious harm had been done. On the face of it, he’s the fastest man left in the field, and although his team appeared to take a battering in that spill, should still be expected to deliver Démare into a winning position here. At a best price of 9/2, Démare has to be the pick.  

Mark Cavendish managed to avoid the tarmac on stage 3 but was delayed enough to be unable to contest the final. It’s unlikely that Cav will get a better opportunity to add to his 30 Tour stage wins. The fastest sprinters in the world – Ewan and Bennett – are no longer here and others are banged up and nursing injuries. He has the best leadout in town and was the last man to win in Fougères six years ago. But 4/1 looks small – I’m going to rule head over heart and avoid him.  

Peter Sagan was of course injured in the crash with Ewan – he suffered abrasions to his hip which although not race ending would surely restrict his chances here. 

With the loss of Robert Gesink and Primož Roglič’s tumble, the opinion on Wout van Aert’s sprint chances is divided – will he be allowed to contest sprints to potentially save Jumbo–Visma’s Tour?, or will he be saved to nurse Roglič through the mountains – I lean towards the latter so prefer to leave him here. 

Similar to last year’s Tour, DSM showed a really strong sprint train about 5km out – of course things unravelled from there a little due to the chaos but they still did a decent job. Cees Bol got a little distanced and finished eighth in the end. With a more organised final he might finish higher but it’s a struggle to see him competing for the win. 

Despite Nacer Bouhanni’s opportunistic third place on stage 3, it’s a stretch to see him compete for the win in a straight-out sprint. Barring accidents (a ridiculous statement given the first three stages so far), it looks like a Merlier, Démare, Cavendish shootout, and I’m backing the Frenchman. 

Stage 4 Bets

Arnaud Démare 2pts win @9/2

Posted 01:04 Tue 29th June 2021