Stage 3 – Lorient > Pontivy (182.9km)

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Stage 2 Result

1st Mathieu VAN DER POEL (11/2); 2nd Tadej POGAČAR (12/1); 3rd Primož ROGLIČ (7/1); 4th Wilco KELDERMAN (50/1)

Recommended:

Primož Roglič 1pt each way (4 places) @7/1 – 3rd

Pierre Latour 0.5pts each way (4 places) @25/1

Omar Fraile 0.25pts each way (4 places) @100/1

Richie Porte 0.25pts each way (4 places) @300/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

When Van der Poel attacked on the first ascent up to Mûr-de-Bretagne 17km from home he appeared to have shot his bolt. But it was a calculated effort to collect all the bonus seconds and better his chances of collecting the yellow jersey, which he went and did along with the stage victory. A simply incredible ride, and if we were a little disappointed with the big favourite on stage 1, he more than made up for it here. 

Worryingly for Ineos, despite putting the team to work leading into the final climb, Thomas lost over 20secs (after time bonuses) to the Slovenians on it. That’s not ideal with Porte and Geoghegan Hart already out of GC contention. It’s early days but “Pog” and “Rog” look streets ahead.

Stage 3 Preview

After a lumpy first couple of stages which favoured the puncheurs, the fast men should get their first chance to stretch their legs in what ought to be a bunch sprint. There are a couple of turns in the last 3km which will require good positioning, but the final 1.5km is straight and flat which should favour the pure speedsters.

The riders have been relatively lucky with the weather so far, managing to dodge most of the frequent showers around the Brittany area, but that looks less likely on Monday where rain jackets look like they’ll be required. A sprint on wet roads of course is not ideal, so fingers crossed we don’t add to the already lengthy injury list.

Contenders

Caleb Ewan’s big goal at the start of the year was to win a stage in each of the three Grand Tours. Having picked up two wins at the Giro d’Italia in May, he departed early to prepare for the Tour. He collected two more wins at the Belgium Tour as prep a few weeks ago, and in the sad absence of Sam Bennett is clearly the fastest man on the startlist. The “Pocket Rocket” has been heavily involved in the intermediate sprints on stages 1 and 2, indicating he has his eyes on the green jersey too. Ewan is the strong favourite at a best price of 11/8, and given a clear run should win. 

But sprints are rarely straightforward, so it’s worth analysing the field of fast men to see if there’s value elsewhere. Bennett’s misfortune (or forced absence, or real/imagined injury, or whatever other conspiracy theory you may have) is Mark Cavendish’s gain. A year ago, Cavendish’s career looked as good as over, but he was handed a lifeline with a one-year contract from his old employers at Deceuninck– Quick-Step and since then has had a remarkable turnaround in form, winning four stages of the Tour of Turkey and another a couple of weeks ago at the Belgium Tour. He now finds himself with a chance to add to his remarkable 30 Tour de France stage victories. He’ll certainly have a Rolls-Royce leadout to put him in prime spot under the flamme rouge and at 11/1 has definite chances.

Alpecin–Fenix’s main sprinter Tim Merlier suffered multiple injuries in the stage 1 pile-ups, and significantly it was Jasper Philipsen who fought for intermediate sprint points on stage 2. That indicates that, for now, Philipsen could be their chosen sprinter. And the Belgian is a very useful deputy, bagging his biggest career win at the Scheldeprijs one-day race earlier in the year. The 23-year-old followed that up with another couple of wins at the Tour of Turkey in a ding-dong battle with Cavendish (they finished 1st and 2nd in four of the eight stages), but suffered a nasty injury two weeks ago in the Belgium Tour which required stitches in his knee. If he’s fully recovered from that – and his performance in the intermediate sprint on stage 2 suggests so – then he has the speed to win. He may even get a luxury leadout from yellow jersey wearer Mathieu van der Poel – assuming the Dutchman doesn’t fancy sprinting off the front and winning himself which is eminently possible. Philipsen is around 18/1 for the win, Van der Poel 28s.

Second favourite behind Ewan at 9/2 is Groupama–FDJ’s Arnaud Démare. The Frenchman was in the form of his life at the backend of last year winning four stages and the ciclamino jersey at the Giro. He’s been quite prolific this season, winning seven times, albeit in mainly lower-grade races against lesser opposition. But he has been winning at least, so his form is there. He’ll have a super strong leadout (though it is one short with the loss of Konovalovas on stage 1), and he should be in good position when the sprints are unleashed. Whether he can match Ewan is another matter. 

Who else could get in the mix? Former world champion Mads Pedersen is fast but needed a full medical check-up on Saturday evening and is a bit banged up so is best left here. Ceel Bol almost grabbed a Tour stage win last year and DSM’s leadout was often one of the most impressive, though that is also depleted with the loss of Jasha Sütterlin. Bol has also been sick leading into the race, which is not ideal preparation, and rolled in dead last on stage 2. 

You’d assume the stage isn’t tough enough for the likes of Wout van Aert, Peter Sagan, or Sonny Colbrelli to compete for the win – but they’re three superb riders in decent form so you can’t write them off.

Stage 3 Bets

Caleb Ewan 3pts win @11/8

Jasper Philipsen 0.5pts each way (3 places) @18/1

Posted 20.53 BST Sun 27th June 2021