Stage 6 – Tours > Châteauroux (160.6km)

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Stage 5 Result

1st Tadej POGAČAR (28/1); 2nd Stefan KÜNG (5/1); 3rd Jonas VINGEGAARD (400/1)

Recommended:

Tadej Pogačar 1pt each way (3 places) @28/1 – 1st

Alexey Lutsenko 0.5pts each way (3 places) @66/1

Wilco Kelderman 0.5pts each way (3 places) @100/1

Max Walscheid 0.25pts each way (3 places) @175/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

Chapeau. Pogačar’s iffy form on the TT bike was put to bed as he took a decisive step towards defending his Tour title – he now has over a minute on all of his GC rivals bar Alaphilippe and is solidly odds-on for the win. 

Roglič and Thomas put in very decent rides considering their injuries, but others had time losses that appear insurmountable, at least for the win – the biggest GC losers were Carapaz (1min 44secs), Mas and Kelderman (1min 49secs), López, Bilbao (2mins 8secs), Guadu (2mins 14secs), and Quintana (2mins 36secs). Both Chaves and Guillaume Martin lost over 3mins. Kerlderman’s ride was particularly disappointing given his performances over the first five stages and how solid he usually is on a TT bike; we’ll have to see if there was a reason for it.

Stage 6 Preview

A pretty flat profile that should end in a sprint as the race continues east across the country on their way to the Alps for the weekend. The intermediate sprint is over 50km from the finish so we should see all green jersey hopefuls battling for the points behind the breakaway, which is likely to consist of fewer than six riders. 

The final is relatively straightforward but there are 90-degree bends at 2.3km and again at 1.6km where positioning, as ever, will be important. However, that still leaves well over a kilometre to recover before the sprinters are fired towards the line.

Contenders

The stage finish in Châteauroux was the site of Mark Cavendish’s first ever Tour win back in 2008, and remarkably he will start this stage as a strong favourite to repeat it 13 years later. The “Manx Missile” came out on top in a chaotic chase and sprint on stage 4 and is clearly as fast or faster than his sprint rivals.

That, together with the best leadout in the race, give Cavendish a great chance of doubling up and inching closer to Eddy Merckx’s record 34 Tour stage wins. Although Cavendish looks fast, he does not look dominant, and a best price of 2/1 is not attractive given the variables.  

Alpecin–Fenix have had another exceptional Grand Tour after their impressive performances and stage win in the Giro d’Italia, and it’s easy to forget that the Belgian team are a second division ProTeam outfit. That’s partly of course due to the presence of Mathieu van der Poel, still in yellow after a superb time trial performance in stage 5.

Sprinters Tim Merlier and Jasper Philipsen would make it into most WorldTeams, indeed in the case of Merlier that could be next year at Deceuninck–Quick-Step if the rumours are true. And that potential move may have influenced the decision to back Philipsen for the sprint two days ago. Who knows? And maybe Van der Poel will fancy a sprint here. All three are potential winners but the uncertainty around team tactics make it difficult to make either a bet selection. 

We’ve unfortunately not seen Groupama–FDJ’s Arnaud Démare even compete in a sprint so far in this race. He lost his train of Scotson and Guarnieri within the last few kilometres of stage 4 and couldn’t make it back, and was involved in the downhill crash that ended Jack Haig’s Tour on stage 3, looking a bit stunned sitting on the tarmac afterwards.

But as far as we know Démare is not suffering from any serious injuries and on top form is probably the fastest man left in the field. Despite a depleted leadout, if the final is a bit more organised – which it should be away from the narrow ribbon roads of Brittany – his team should be able to deliver him with a shot of victory. They will be disappointed following Stefan Küng’s loss in the stage 5 time trial, but this is a big opportunity for the French team to bounce back with a win – Démare is good value at 15/2 and is the pick again. 

Wout van Aert apparently has the freedom to go for the sprints assuming Primož Roglič is safely tucked away in the bunch past the 3km point. But he’s looked a little below his very best so far, including in the time trial where he was the favourite to take away the victory and yellow jersey that was targeted pre-race, and the best price of 6/1 available does not appeal. 

Others that could challenge – Arkéa Samsic’s Nacer Bouhanni already has a second and third in the two sprints so far, but he’ll probably need luck in running – and misfortune to hamper others – to get his nose in front.   

Similarly, both Cees Bol and Mads Pedersen are probably not quick enough to take away the win despite both having impressive leadouts. But just in case it does get messy again, I think we should also keep Sonny Colbrelli onside. He can’t compete with the very fastest in a straight shootout, but can handle himself in complicated finals and still appears to be carrying the excellent form he came into the race with – at 70/1 and at small stakes, the Italian champion is another pick.  

Stage 6 Bets

Arnaud Démare 2pts each way (3 places) @15/2

Sonny Colbrelli 0.5pts each way (3 places) @70/1

Posted 21.56 BST Wed 30th June 2021