Stage 5 – Changé > Laval Espace Mayenne ITT (27.2km)

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Stage 4 Result

1st Mark CAVENDISH (4/1); 2nd Jasper PHILIPSEN (6/1); 3rd Nacer BOUHANNI (22/1)

Recommended:

Arnaud Démare 2pts win @9/2

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

I’m not sure if this is a bike race we’re watching or a sports movie. Yet another hugely dramatic and emotional stage, with Cavendish landing his 31st Tour stage win five years after his last. The leadouts became very disorganised and chaotic in an effort to chase down Van Moer who was looking for a carbon copy of his victory at the Dauphiné a few weeks ago – did none of the teams watch that? It was almost an unbelievable miscalculation.

The “stingy” 9/1 about Philipsen mentioned in the preview became huge value when Alpecin–Fenix announced in the morning that they’d back Philipsen in the sprint ahead of Merlier. Another place for the Belgian behind Bouhanni who is also knocking on the door. Démare appeared to be delivered into a good position around 1.5km out but then literally disappeared – who knows what kind of sprinting form he is in as he hasn’t actually done one yet.

Stage 5 Preview

A rolling rather than hilly or flat course for the first of two time trials which should give us a clearer picture of how general classification contenders are fairing whilst giving the specialists a chance of a Tour stage win. At 27.2km, it’s long enough for potentially significant time gaps, perhaps upwards of 2mins, between the major GC players.

It’s a course that ought to favour big, strong, proven riders against the clock, some of whom are within bidon-throwing distance of the yellow jersey, which is sure to be an extra motivating factor. There are showers forecast for the afternoon which could make start times significant, possibly favouring early riders off the ramp.

Contenders

Wout van Aert took the decision not to compete in the sprints on stages 3 and 4 to be as recovered as possible for this time trial. And in targeting this stage, he also has a very real shot at ending the day in yellow. Van Aert is a very bridgeable 31secs behind current GC leader Mathieu van der Poel who is not known as a time trial specialist (though could no doubt become one with a couple of day’s practice). 

Being so close to the lead means he may have the worst of the wet roads (as riders leave the gate in reverse GC order) but that’s speculative at this point and no reason to write off his chances. Having only just returned after an appendectomy, Van Aert has looked solid if not his usual stellar self, but the race has only just started so there’s time. His truncated season has included only one time trial – at Tirreno–Adriatico back in March – which he won, taking some big scalps in Stefan Küng, Filippo Ganna, and Tadej Pogačar. A return to that form should see him go close and the bookies have him as favourite at around 13/8. 

This Swiss pair of Küng and Stefan Bissegger are next in the betting at 5/1 and 3/1 respectively, and both have impressed on the TT bike this season – Küng beating his younger compatriot in their home tour before becoming Swiss champion, and Bissegger beating a top class field at Paris-Nice. This of course will be a major goal for both and they may enjoy better road conditions with their earlier start times. 

Also targeting the yellow jersey, or aiming to win it back, will be Julian Alaphilippe. Though not a specialist, the Frenchman is more than capable of putting in a great performance on the TT bike as we saw back in 2019 with his stage win in Pau which was over the same distance as this. He’s had a tough few days, even helping to lead out Mark Cavendish for his sprint victory, so may not have the freshest legs among the stage hopefuls. 

Primož Roglič would ordinarily start as one of the favourites for a time trial of this nature, but he’s bandaged up like an Egyptian mummy at the moment after crashing twice and can’t be expected to perform at his top level. A day without big time losses to his rivals will be a win for Roglič as he looks to have healed up a bit before the riders hit the mountains on the weekend. 

Roglič and his compatriot Pogačar are both priced at around 28/1, which in the latter’s case looks a little big. Of course we remember his incredible TT performance on stage 20 that won him last year’s Tour, and he did come into that race as the Slovenian time trial champion, having beaten Roglič earlier in the year. That title passed to Jan Tratnik last week with Pogačar in a disappointing third, but I’m not sure how much to read into that performance. In fact there may have been a bit of sharing of the spoils to avoid Pog and Rog domination. With both Geraint Thomas and Roglič injured, this would be a perfect opportunity to capitalise on their misfortune and put some serious time into his rivals. Speaking of Thomas, it would be a surprise to see him compete for the win two days after dislocating his shoulder – having to hold his TT position for over half an hour is likely to be painful. 

There was a surprise result in the recent Critérium de Dauphiné time trial with the Astana–PremierTech duo of Alexey Lutsenko and Ion Izagirre finishing one-two. That was followed a few days later by Matteo Sobrero winning the Italian national TT championships having also impressed at the Giro. That suggests that the Astana TT bike has seen some decent R&D. Lutsenko especially is looking in very good shape and may become a genuine GC threat (especially if all the others keep crashing). At 66/1, it’s probably best to keep him onside. 

Others that might get involved? Three Danes come to mind – Kasper Asgreen and double stage winner in 2020 Søren Kragh are both quality time trialists. As is Mikkel Bjerg, though he did take a bit of a bashing in stage 1.

Asgreen is as short as 5/1 after becoming Danish champion last week. He’d finished third behind the Astana pair in the Dauphiné, but fourth that day, 3secs back, was Wilco Kelderman. The Dutchman has been very impressive so far in this Tour finishing in the top five on stages 1 and 2, almost unnoticed. At a much bigger 100/1, Kelderman offers serious value and is also included. 

A sprinter or leadout man by trade, but a rider who finished sixth and eighth at the two Giro TTs is German powerhouse Max Walscheid and at 175/1 is also worth a small, if very speculative, interest.

Stage 5 Bets

Tadej Pogačar 1pt each way (3 places) @28/1

Alexey Lutsenko 0.5pts each way (3 places) @66/1

Wilco Kelderman 0.5pts each way (3 places) @100/1

Max Walscheid 0.25pts each way (3 places) @175/1

Posted 22.48 BST Tue 29th June 2021