Stage 1 – Nice Moyen Pays > Nice (156km)

Profile

Preview

As the profile suggests, this is not a pancake-flat open goal for the sprinters. The third-category Côte de Rimiez is tackled twice, together with the rise up to Aspremont. However, it’s not a super tough climb, and even if a sprinter gets dropped on the final ascent, there are still 50km remaining for their team to get them back on.

Even though we don’t have a deep field of sprinters this year – due largely to the lumpy looking parcours ahead of them – there will still be enough teams to ensure that the break is brought back and the stage ends in a sprint – with the yellow jersey on the line there’s too much at stake for it not to.

The final is flat along the Promenade des Anglais. The weather is a wild card; if it rains, the descents could become treacherous – but at this point it’s unclear whether it will. 

Contenders

Joint favourites at an unattractive 9/4 and the two fastest sprinters in the startlist are Caleb Ewan and Sam Bennett, and this stage will obviously be a major season objective for both. They will have strong leadouts and come into the race in form having both won at the recent Tour de Wallonie.

Giacomo Nizzolo is in blistering form having recently become the Italian national champion, before following it up at the European Championships denying us all the chance to see the Italian national jersey in action for a whole year (surely the rider should get to choose?); 10/1 is tempting. 

Elia Viviani would normally be vying for favouritism but is as big as 14/1. He doesn’t appear to be in the greatest form and a watching brief may be best. I would definitely suggest keeping an eye on how he’s going however, as he could offer some value later in the race. 

As he showed last year, Wout van Aert has the speed to compete in these sprints, especially if a bit of the sting has been taken out of the nippier men’s legs. The question for WVA this year will be how much he is let off the leash to compete in these finals as he’s here primarily to help Primož Roglič on GC; 11/1 is available at the moment.

I can see Peter Sagan and Bryan Coquard competing for a place but probably not the win.

It’s unlikely that Alexander Kristoff, André Greipel, Mad Pedersen and others will have the pure speed to win unless the stage turns significantly tougher than it looks on paper. 

There’s often not a great deal of value in flat stages, and this is no different. Bennett and Ewan are the likeliest winners, but difficult to split, and short in price. I’m tempted with both Nizzolo and WVA at a bit more value, but not recommending both; WVA gets the nod.

Wout Van Aert 1pt ew (1/4 odds 3 places) @11/1

Stage 1 Result

1st Alexander Kristoff; 2nd Mads Pedersen; 3rd Cees Bol; 4th Sam Bennett

Recommended:

Wout van Aert 1pt ew (1/4 odds 3 places) @11/1 - lost (-2.0pts)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

No chapeau. The stage turned into a lottery when torrential rain hit the area. Most of the peloton must have gone down at some stage. It may look dramatic and exciting but I hate seeing riders hit the deck, and it may deny us the opportunity of seeing some of the GC contenders at their best in the mountains, which is a huge shame. Thibaut Pinot seemed to come down hard at the end, and he was clearly exasperated and angry, whilst Miguel Ángel López was sent careering off into a road sign by his own team on a wet descent. Plenty of others will have come down off-camera, and we’ll have to check on morning reports to count the wounded. Van Aert said he was too scared to compete in the sprint, and I don’t blame him. In the end, Kristoff won from Pedersen which gives an indication of how tough it ended up being.

Total Stakes: 2.0pts; P/L: -2.0pts (-100%)