Stage 2 - Nice Haut Pays > Nice (186km)

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Preview

No messing about in this year’s tour as riders go straight into the mountains with two first-category ascents plus a second-category to test the climbing legs early. They are all steady if not brutal climbs, and all come too far from the finish to suggest any decisive GC battles.

Teams may be motivated to bring the breakaway back as there are bonus seconds available on the final uncategorised rise (as well as at the finish line). This looks primed for an attack over the top of this bonus summit, and if a gap is made there is only the 5km descent to negotiate.

So, there is a possibility for someone to take yellow today and keep it for a while – whether a genuine GC contender would want it this early is another question.

Contenders

This is quite a tricky stage to predict so early in the race when form is a bit of an unknown and many riders may be nursing bruises and worse from yesterday. We’re looking for either an explosive attack on the last climb, or a faster but non-pure sprinter to stay with the leaders and win from a reduced group. That’s assuming the breakaway isn’t left to battle it out – which isn’t impossible.

Given the above, it’s unsurprising that Julian Alaphilippe has been installed favourite at a best price of 4/1 – he can accelerate in quick bursts pretty much better than anyone and descends like a demon; he’s also looking for stage wins rather than a longer GC goal – though we’ll see how true that is should he win. 4/1 though seems skinny with so many variables. 

Next in the betting are Sergio Higuita, Wout van Aert and Peter Sagan – all capable of winning a sprint from a reduced group, but you could justifiably make a case for many more from different scenarios including the top GC contenders of Primož Roglič and Tadej Pogačar who might fancy sweeping up the bonus seconds on offer; they are both explosive with a fast sprint. 

With so many riders that could play a part it’s worth having a few small point punts at some bigger prices – and there are plenty about. Swiss youngster Marc Hirschi was impressive in the Dauphiné and is in a team with Sunweb that are hunting stage wins only – it’s unlikely GC teams would chase him down if he got a gap on the climb. Romain Bardet has stated that he’s not focussing on GC (yes, another one) and is looking for stage wins especially in the first week. Well, here’s his first opportunity and with a classic Bardet attack and descent over the top he could pull it off at a massive 150/1. I’m also adding Tour of Flanders winner Alberto Bettiol who could win with a late attack or a breakaway which is a handy bit of cover - again at massive odds.

Marc Hirschi 1pt ew (1/5 odds 4 places) @40/1 

Romain Bardet 1pt ew (1/5 odds 4 places) @150/1

Alberto Bettiol 1pt ew (1/4 odds 3 places) @200/1

Stage 2 Result

1st Julian Alaphilippe; 2nd Marc Hirschi; 3rd Adam Yates; 4th Greg Van Avermaet

Recommended:

Marc Hirschi 1pt ew (1/5 odds 4 places) @40/1 - placed (+7.0pts)

Romain Bardet 1pt ew (1/5 odds 4 places) @150/1 - lost (-2.0pts)

Alberto Bettiol 1pt ew (1/4 odds 3 places) @200/1 - lost (-2.0pts)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

Chapeau! The stage went pretty much as advertised with Alaphilippe attacking on the final climb and winning the sprint. He was joined by Hirschi and Adam Yates (who I’d discounted due to his recent illness and below par performance at the Dauphiné). Arguably, Hirschi could’ve won the sprint had he been closer to Alaphilippe’s wheel, but it would have denied us the emotional scenes as Alaphilippe crossed the line – dedicating the win to his father who recently passed away. Bettiol finished a good 10th; Bardet didn’t attack as hoped.

Total Stakes: 8.0pts; P/L: +1.0pts (+12.5%)