Stage 13 – Châtel-Guyon > Puy Mary Cantal (191.5km)

Profile

Preview

A proper mountain day with the toughest tests coming at the end with the second-category Col de Neronne (3.8km at 9.1%), followed by the first-category Puy Mary (5.4km at 8.1%). Both climbs have maximum rises in the double figures, with the toughest only a couple of kilometres from the line, and likely where the stage will be decided. 

A summit finish on a tough climb would ordinarily point towards a GC showdown for the stage, but I’m not so sure about this one. The peloton will start climbing for real after only 25km with the first-category Col de Ceyssat, which is where the breakaway is likely to be formed. This climb is long at 10.2km, and even though the gradient isn’t scary at 6.1%, we’re likely to have a group of very strong climbers – I doubt this is a day where a rouleur will make the break and take it all the way home. 

So, JV will check nobody of GC threat goes up the road and then try to calm it down. Yesterday was a full gas day, and I suspect we may have two races today – one for the stage and another amongst the GC men up the final two climbs.

Contenders

So, we’re essentially looking for the best climbers left in the race that are not in GC reckoning for a bit of breakaway bingo. First name on the list is the winner of this year’s Dauphiné – EF’s Dani Martínez. Although you could consider his Dauphiné win fortunate with both Roglič and Bernal withdrawing, there is no doubting his abilities which have earned him a move to Ineos next year. He lost more than three and a half minutes on stage 2 after a couple of tumbles and has since slipped out of GC contention. Indications are that he’s not seriously injured so will definitely be interested in stage wins for the rest of the Tour. He’s in at 14/1. 

After that, I’ve chosen some riders at more attractive prices. Astana’s Omar Fraile knows how to win Grand Tour stages and if given licence could do so here at 50/1. Fraile’s teammate Harold Tejada is also in at a huge 250/1. So far Pello Bilbao has been in full support of Mikel Landa, but 66/1 seems value and would be a big favourite if in the break.

Now that Thibaut Pinot is no longer in the GC battle, FDJ will want to get some guys in the break. Prime candidate for today is Sébastien Reichenbach. He rode well in the Dauphiné and was in the break yesterday – this stage might be more to his liking and at 80/1 is in. Finally, another excellent Dauphiné performer recovering from crashes, Pavel Sivakov, for me is also massive value at 150/1. 

Other breakaway candidates with huge chances are of course Julian Alaphilippe, Alexey Lutsenko, David Gaudu, Lennard Kämna and Marc Hirschi but you can’t back them all! Should it come down to a GC battle then it’s difficult to look beyond Primož Roglič, Egan Bernal and Tadej Pogačar. They’re all available at around the 11-12/1, but the value is surely for the break to go all the way.

Dani Martínez 2pts ew (1/4 1 2 3 4) @14/1

Omar Fraile 1pt ew (1/4 1 2 3 4) @50/1

Pello Bilbao 1pt ew (1/4 1 2 3 4) @66/1

Sébastien Reichenbach 1pt ew (1/4 1 2 3 4) @80/1

Pavel Sivakov 0.5pts ew (1/4 1 2 3 4) @150/1

Harold Tejada 0.5pts ew (1/4 1 2 3 4) @250/1

Stage 13 Result

1st Dani Martínez; 2nd Lennard Kämna; 3rd Max Schachmann; 4th Valentin Madouas

Recommended:

Dani Martínez 2pts ew (1/4 1 2 3 4) @14/1 – won (+35pts)

Omar Fraile 1pt ew (1/4 1 2 3 4) @50/1 – lost (-2pts)

Pello Bilbao 1pt ew (1/4 1 2 3 4) @66/1 – lost (-2pts)

Sébastien Reichenbach 1pt ew (1/4 1 2 3 4) @80/1 – lost (-2pts)

Pavel Sivakov 0.5pts ew (1/4 1 2 3 4) @150/1 – lost (-1pt)

Harold Tejada 0.5pts ew (1/4 1 2 3 4) @250/1 – lost (-1pt)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

Chapeau! As predicted, it was a big, strong group of 17 riders that got clear on the Col de Ceyssat and there was no desire from GC teams to try to bring back a group that powerful. Martínez was able to sprint away from Kämna on the steepest slopes near the end. Schachmann completed the places having looked the winner for a while – a little annoying as I backed him yesterday when he finished sixth, but that’s the way it goes. Behind, Bardet and Guillaume Martin lost time, Bardet after a crash.

Total Stakes: 79.0pts; P/L: +38.3pts (+48.5%)