Stage 12 – Chauvigny > Sarran Corrèze (218km)

Profile

Preview

A long, lumpy day with four categorized climbs but none of them of sufficient length or difficulty to interest GC contenders. The final is not flat, and so it would seem unlikely a sprinter team will be motivated to bring back the break, making a breakaway win more likely than not. The start is relatively flat and so will favour stronger riders when the break is forming, which may take a while as many will know it has a very good chance of making it all the way. 

We have an intermediate sprint after 50km, so it’s possible that DCQS will want to keep it together until then so Bennett can take maximum points and extend his lead in green. They will also of course have to make sure Sagan doesn’t make the break. 

The climbing starts after 90km with a fourth-category (1.5km at 8.8%) followed by another (2.8km at 5.2%), a third-category (4.8km at 6%), and lastly the hardest climb of the day – a second-category (3.8km at 7.7%). But that belies the true nature of the route which is up and down all day favouring a real strong rider rather than a mountain goat.

Contenders

So it’s time for a bit of breakaway bingo. We have a pretty good feeling for who is going well and who has the freedom to attack without any babysitting duties.

Julian Alaphilippe is the favourite again at around 6/1. We’ve seen that Alaphilippe probably isn’t at his very top level but even a notch or two below is good enough to take another stage. 

However, I prefer his DCQS teammate at a much more attractive price: Bob Jungels is available at around 66/1. Jungels is sure to have licence to get into the breaks for the rest of the Tour and indicated as much in an interview yesterday. He had a little bit of a dig after chasing down Pöstleberger yesterday, so perhaps he’s finding his legs – this profile suits him perfectly. 

Other likely candidates for the break are Thomas De Gendt, Alessandro de Marchi, Remi Cavagna, Alexey Lutsenko, Luis León Sánchez, Greg Van Avermaet, Jesús Herrada – the list really does go on, and you could pick 20 riders and still not hit the bullseye. 

Sunweb are out for stage wins and they have a number of options – Teisj Benoot, Nikias Arndt for example, but I’m going to go for Marc Hirschi and Søren Kragh Andersen. Hirschi has already shown his stellar talent and this is another perfect stage for him to use his phenomenal strength – they’re available at 16s and 28s respectively. 

Another rider who we should try to keep onside is Max Schachmann, who, were it not for being hit by a car in Il Lombardia, would have competed in stages already. Hopefully, he’s back to something like his best – he’s available at around 12s which is short enough considering he’s still coming back from that shoulder injury. 

To these I’m adding Michał Kwiatwowski. He’s around 100/1 which seems massive for a profile that is perfect for him. If this was a one-day race then he’d be one of the favourites. Of course, he’s so big because he’ll more than likely be looking after Bernal, but I just wonder if Ineos look at the profile – which doesn’t seem too dangerous for Bernal – and allow Kwiato licence for the day. It’s a long shot, but then it’s long odds!

Bob Jungels 1pt ew (1/4 1 2 3) @66/1

Marc Hirschi 1.5pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @16/1

Søren Kragh Andersen 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @28/1

Max Schachmann 1.5pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @12/1

Michał Kwiatkowski 0.5pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @100/1

Stage 12 Result

1st Marc Hirschi; 2nd Pierre Rolland; 3rd Søren Kragh Andersen; 4th Quentin Pacher

Recommended:

Bob Jungels 1pt ew (1/4 1 2 3) @66/1 – lost (-2pts)

Marc Hirschi 1.5pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @16/1 - won (+28.8pts)

Søren Kragh Andersen 1pt ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @28/1 - placed (+6.9pts)

Max Schachmann 1.5pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @12/1 - lost (-3pts)

Michał Kwiatkowski 0.5pts ew (1/5 1 2 3 4) @100/1 - lost (-1pt)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

Chapeau! Not a straightforward breakaway stage in the end. It was quite attritional with various attacks and mini breakaways, and it was simply the strongest riders on the tough little climbs that finally got away. Alaphilippe tried but he’s clearly not the strongest this year. Hirschi on the other hand looked unstoppable. Schachmann finished just outside the places in sixth but that would’ve been greedy!

Total Stakes: 67.0pts; P/L: +11.3pts (+16.9%)