Tour de France 2023

Outright Preview

The buildup to this year’s Tour de France has been overshadowed by the tragic death of Gino Mäder following a crash on stage 5 of the Tour de Suisse two weeks ago. Mäder, who was due to make his Tour de France debut this week, was one of the brightest talents in the pro peloton and his loss is a sharp reminder of the considerable dangers that riders face for our entertainment.

Clearly troubled by how some money sources within pro cycling conflicted with his own beliefs, Mäder donated €10 for every rider he beat during each stage of the 2021 Vuelta a España to the regreening charity justdiggit.org, raising over €4,000 over the three weeks. The project team have subsequently pledged that a dedicated area of land will be developed in his memory. El Patrón Cycling will carry a link at the bottom of the website during the Tour de France for those wishing to learn more and donate.

Contenders

With just a single day of time trialling – and that only 22km long – this year’s edition of the Tour de France offers a rare chance for climbers less adept on the TT bike to challenge at the top of the general classification. However, there are plenty of trappy stages where GC contenders will need to be alert, none more so than the opening hilly weekend in the Basque Country.

The defending champion, Jumbo Visma’s Jonas Vingegaard, has been impressive in the buildup, winning three stages and the overall in Itzulia Basque Country before a very convincing win at the Critérium du Dauphiné at the start of the month. Key domestique, Steven Kruijswijk, fractured his collarbone and pelvis in that race, which is a blow, but the Dane can still rely on a super strong team including Tour de Suisse fourth place Wilco Kelderman, newly-crowned Dutch champion Dylan van Baarle, and of course supreme all-rounder Wout van Aert, though last year’s green jersey winner will leave the Tour should his second child arrive earlier than its August due date.

The one blot on Vingegaard’s season was a third place in Paris-Nice back in March, beaten comfortably by UAE Team Emirates’ Tadej Pogačar. The 2020 and 2021 Tour de France winner showed some stellar spring form, winning the Tour of Flanders monument as well as Amstel Gold and La Flèche Wallone. However, that came to an abrupt halt in April with a freak accident at Liège-Bastogne-Liège resulting in multiple fractures to his wrist. Since then, Pogačar has only managed two days of racing, at the Slovenian national championships (where he won both the road and time trial titles), as he continues his recovery. He was cut back in to joint favouritism after that showing though still must be coming in a little undercooked – not necessarily a bad thing during a three-week tour.

Jumbo Visma will no doubt want to test Pogačar’s fitness during the early stages in the hope of stealing some seconds and gaining a psychological advantage, though the lumpy Basque terrain is much more in Pogačar’s favour, indeed he’s favourite to win the opening stage around Bilbao.

Pogačar was a little overexuberant at times last year, burning too many unnecessary matches, and also lacked the support that Vingegaard enjoyed. He’s unlikely to make the same mistakes again and comes in with a stronger team which includes Critérium du Dauphiné runner-up Adam Yates, who UAE Team Emirates general manager Mauro Gianetti has said is going in as a protected co-leader alongside Pogačar given the uncertainty over the Slovenian’s form and fitness.

It’s a real toss-up between the two protagonists with little to split them in terms of ability, and that’s reflected in the price of around 11/10 the pair. Let’s hope that accidents or bad luck don’t ruin what is set for an epic contest over the three weeks.

So barring disasters, Vingegaard and Pogačar should fill the top two steps in Paris, so far ahead of their rivals they appear to be. However, the final place on the podium is very much up for grabs with maybe a dozen riders in contention.  

Bora-Hansgrohe’s Jai Hindley has been building his form nicely with a fourth place at the Dauphiné and knows how to peak for a grand tour having won the Giro d’Italia in 2022 and been runner-up two years earlier. Hindley makes his Tour de France debut which presents a marked step up, but it’s a challenge the Australian is capable of meeting.

AG2R Citroën’s Ben O’Connor was a place ahead of Hindley at the Dauphiné and has that Tour experience that his countryman lacks with a stage win and fourth place overall in 2021. O’Connor was forced to abandon the Tour last year with a torn glute muscle and, up to the Dauphiné, had had a lean 2023. At double the price of Hindley – 5/1 compared to 5/2 for a podium finish – O’Connor offers the better value.  

Ecuadorian champion Richard Carapaz was punchy at the Dauphiné, willing to test himself against Vingegaard where others were more wary. He probably paid for those attacks as his GC challenge tailed off but there’s no doubt the former Giro winner has the class and pedigree to challenge again. The lack of time trial kilometres is in his favour and the 12/1 for a top 3 finish is tempting.

Movistar’s Enric Mas has been a very consistent performer in grand tours of recent years and showed great shape at the backend of 2022 – a third runner-up spot in five years at the Vuelta a España followed by a second place, behind Pogačar, at Il Lombardia. However, he’s only showed patches of that form this season and, like Carapaz, fell away worryingly at the Dauphiné. He’s been guilty of being a follower in the past but has a course that suits and is a serious podium contender should he hit his top level.

After his runners-up spot ahead of Vingegaard at Paris-Nice earlier in the season, it was hoped David Gaudu could put up a significant challenge to the Dane at the Dauphiné, but in the end he had a shocker, finishing 30th overall and without a top 20 stage finish throughout. Groupama-FDJ directeur sportif Marc Madiot hasn’t panicked though, backing Gaudu as team leader and leaving sprinter Arnaud Démare at home. It makes for a more balanced team, and they have new French champion Valentin Madouas and Thibaut Pinot to stage hunt should the GC tilt fall apart, but given that Dauphiné performance, Gaudu in unbackable.

The big market mover has been Mattias Skjelmose – triple-figure odds a couple of weeks ago, he’s now 28/1 joint-third favourite following his win at the Tour de Suisse where the young Dane comported himself admirably during those dreadful events. At just 22, he’s clearly a rider with scope to improve, though this is a step up and a half.

Very much under the radar is Jayco AlUla’s Simon Yates who hasn’t competed since abandoning the Tour de Romandie with stomach issues back in April. The Brit has preferred to spend time training at altitude rather than race, so his form is unknown. He may be coming in hot though and eying up the opening weekend on terrain that suits to get into yellow early. Whether that can be sustained for the full three weeks is another question.

Given the dominance of the top two, the outright market doesn’t appeal but, after his consistently solid performances and third-place finish at the Dauphiné, the best-price of 11/2 on O’Connor for a podium spot is worth a small interest.

The King of the Mountains competition can be devilishly difficult to make pay with race dynamics often directing which riders make it a target, only for the GC leader to gazump everyone in the final week anyway. We do know, however, that Lidl-Trek’s Giulio Ciccone has made the polka dot jersey a goal, because he said so. The Italian was flying early in the season before being cruelly ruled out of the Giro d’Italia with Covid. He returned at the Dauphiné and won the final stage, so we know the form is there as well as the intent and at 9/2 is a selection.

Unusually, Ineos Grenadiers come into the race without a top-tier GC contender. Instead, they have a number of hopefuls with Dani Martínez, Carlos Rodríguez and, returning to the Tour for the first time since his horrific training crash in early 2022, Egan Bernal. They’ll all be looking to test themselves in the overall with a top 5 not out of the question. They also have Tom Pidcock – winner on Alpe d’Huez last year, who’ll be given the freedom to stage hunt, starting on the opening weekend. A grand tour GC challenge is surely a long-term goal for Pidcock and even though this is probably a year too early it would be wrong to underestimate the young Brit. Let’s keep him onside with a play in the KOM, which he may fall into contention of, as well as a tilt at the top 10.

Outright Bets

Top 3 – Ben O’Connor 1pt win @11/2

Top 10 – Tom Pidcock 1pt win @9/2

King of the Mountains – Giulio Ciccone 1pt win @9/2

King of the Mountains – Tom Pidcock 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1

Posted 09:46 BST 29th June 2023

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Tour de France at Oddschecker