Tour de France 2023

Stage 1 – Bilbao > Bilbao (181.7km)

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We’re in typically difficult Basque Country terrain for the Grand Départ and, unusually for the opening stage of the Tour de France, could see a general classification dust-up for the win. At the very least, race favourites will need to be alert and well positioned so as not to lose significant time.

The riders go up from the gun with two climbs in the first 15km including the third-category Côte de Laukiz (2.2km at 6.9%) where the day’s breakaway should form. The race will be decided on the final two climbs – the second-category Côte de Vivero (4.2km at 7.3%) and then the viciously steep Côte de Pike (2km at 10%, maximum 18%) which peaks just 10km from the finish. There’s then a descent before a tough kick up to the line in the last 200m – but will it be a puncheur or GC man lifting their arms?

Stage 1 Contenders

Tactics here will be fascinating in a stage that’s a bit of a puzzle. The final steep climb favours Tadej Pogačar, but everyone knows that so it would be strange if attacks didn’t start on the Côte de Vivero 30km out. But then how is Pogačar’s form and fitness? Will he want to put down a marker or ride himself into the race more quietly? And who will control the break which, given the early climbs, may be strong and difficult to bring back? Will UAE Team Emirates and Jumbo-Visma, who have stage favourites Pogačar and Wout van Aert in their ranks, be willing to put their team to work given their main goal is a GC win in Paris? Pogačar is still the bookies favourite however at a best-price of 11/4, and could well put on a masterclass, but given the uncertainties is best swerved.

Van Aert rode an exceptional Tour last year, even by his standards – winning three stages, wearing the yellow jersey, winning the green jersey and launching Jonas Vingegaard to victory on the final mountain stage. He warmed up at the Tour de Suisse where he looked solid without landing a stage win. It’s a good stage for Van Aert but then it’s difficult to find a stage that isn’t good for the best all-rounder in the world. There’s a best price of 11/2 about him – could we see the Belgian superstar in yellow again?  

Talking of superstars, Alpecin-Deceuninck’s Mathieu van der Poel disappointed in last year’s Tour, coming in tired having ridden a very aggressive Giro d’Italia. His preparation has been more sensible this time and he showed good form at the Tour of Belgium two weeks ago, winning a stage and the overall. Having reconned the final, he said, ‘it’s at the limit of what I’m capable of doing’, but Van der Poel’s limits tend to be much higher than everyone else’s and he’s a decent 11/2 for the stage win.

A few years ago, Soudal Quick-Step’s Julian Alaphilippe would’ve been a strong favourite for this, but after a run of serious injuries he’s struggled to rediscover the form that saw him win six Tour de France stages and two world championships. He did, however, win at the Critérium du Dauphiné to signal that he can still deliver top results and is very much targeting this opening stage. The 16/1 about him looks big, though whether he’s quite back to the old swashbuckling ‘Loulou’ is questionable.

Another rider with this weekend circled in the roadbook and at a similar price is Ineos Grenadiers’ Tom Pidcock. Short, sharp climbs are perfect for the Brit who often blows hot and cold on the road. When he’s hot though, there are few who can match him, as demonstrated on the stage to Alpe d’Huez last year as well as his win at Strade Bianche this season. By his own admission, however, his level was not where he thought it would be at the Tour de Suisse, and so may need a few stages to ride himself into the race.

The popular and emotional win would be Pello Bilbao and not just because he shares a name with the city hosting the Grand Départ – Bahrain Victorious will be riding in memory of Gino Mäder with the Basque man on home roads. Bilbao has the right profile for this too – good on steep climbs, fast in the finish and is fancied at around 20/1.

This could become quite chaotic and unpredictable, even from the start, but let’s go for Van der Poel to land the first yellow jersey and the GC men to cool their boots till the first mountains next week.

Stage 1 Bets

Mathieu van der Poel 1pt win @11/2

Posted 09:32 BST 30th June 2023

Prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change - find the best prices available on the Tour de France at Oddschecker

[Tour de France stage profiles reproduced by kind permission of Ben Lowe at Veloviewer.com]

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