Stage 1 – Burgos > Burgos ITT (7.1km)

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A short individual time trial kicks off this year’s tour around Spain. In fact, at just 7.1km it’s technically a prologue rather than a bona fide stage, but let’s not quibble – it’s short anyway and so the time gaps are likely to be small. The riders will start and finish – after a quick loop around the city – at Burgos’ Gothic Cathedral in the northern Spanish region of Castile y León.

There’s a stiff-looking third-category climb of 1.2km at 7.1% (or 2.3km at 3.5% depending on where you put your ruler) which they head up pretty much straight out the gate. After descending, it’s flat for the final 3km but with plenty of narrow turns which should suit the more technically adept riders.

With the stage being so short, we could see a random selection of time trialists, puncheurs, and sprinters challenging for the win, but we should at least get a few small signs of who’s going well and who isn’t. It’s going to be dry and very hot (well into scorchio territory at 37°C). Hopefully all the riders get around safely in what really is a stellar field for the final Grand Tour of the season. Vamos!

Contenders

Strong odds-on favourite at a best price of 2/5 (1.4 decimal, -250 US) is Olympic time trial champion Primož Roglič. The Slovenian – who we unfortunately didn’t get to see make a challenge at the Tour de France after crashing out – is also a strong favourite for overall victory, which would be his third Vuelta title in a row. Taking gold in Tokyo showed he’s clearly recovered from his Tour injuries and will no doubt go well but is unbackable at such short odds, especially considering the handful of seconds that will likely split the leading players. 

Roglič’s paisano and current national time trial champion Jan Tratnik put in an incredible day’s work in the Tokyo road race, almost single-handedly controlling and then reeling in the break. His price has halved with some bookmakers over the last couple of days to as short as 13/2 second favourite. However, some are either holding steady or are just slow to react, and the 12/1 available in places looks decent value. 

Another man who had a great Olympics was Ineos’ Tom Pidcock. Not even the mighty Mathieu van der Poel could stop him delivering gold in the mountain bike event. Pidcock won the Baby Giro in ‘20 and there appears to be no limit to his talent or potential. It’s a big stretch to say he’ll challenge for the overall here (especially as the 22-year-old hasn’t ridden a major stage race all season and Ineos have four GC riders ahead of him) but he’ll definitely be looking for stage win opportunities and this is definitely one. A short punchy climb followed by technical turns – this could be ideal for him. There’s a best price of 12/1 about the Brit.

EF Education-Nippo’s Magnus Cort Nielsen can put in a decent time trial and the short course should suit. The Dane is already a three-time stage winner at the Vuelta and will be looking for opportunities on reduced sprint and breakaway days. He could go well but the best price of 8/1 is short enough.

Czech time trial champion Josef Černý is a super strong rider and this short but tough course could be to his liking. A stage winner in last year’s Giro, Černý also finished in the top six in all three of the time trials. He’s a definite podium contender and is available at around 20/1. 

An impressive second to his Astana–PremierTech teammate Alexey Lutsenko in the Dauphiné time trial was Ion Izagirre. He followed that up by becoming the Spanish time trial champion and although his TT performances at the Tour de France were below par, we shouldn’t read too much into that as his focus was towards breakaway wins in the mountains. If he takes a few risks and exploits his excellent descending skills then the Basque man could go close. The 66/1 about him is worth a small interest.

Stage 1 Bets
Jan Tratnik 1pt each way (3 places) @12/1

Ion Izagirre 0.5pts each way (4 places) @66/1

Posted 22.19 BST Fri 13th Aug 2021