Stage 14 – Don Benito > Pico Villuercas (165.7km)

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Stage 13 Result

1st Florian Sénéchal (66/1)

2nd Matteo Trentin (33/1)

3rd Alberto Dainese (11/2)

Stage 13 Bets

Alberto Dainese 1pt each way (3 places) @11/2 - 3rd

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

Another mini-chapeau. Not quite the finish we had in mind. We knew positioning inside the last 3km would be crucial due to the bends and roundabouts, but the Deceuninck–Quick-Step train did such a good job they managed to distance the rest of the peloton, including their own sprinter Jakobsen.

Whether it was a flat tyre or lack of legs, the Dutchman sat up and gave the green light to Sénéchal who powered home for a well-earned victory. There were gaps and splits all through the peloton behind but ultimately no major gains or losses between the GC men – that’s unlikely to be the case after stage 14.

Stage 14 Preview

Two first-category climbs and a summit finish mean this is a big day in the general classification. The first – the Puerto Collado de Ballesteros – is only 2.8km long but has an average gradient of 14% and would be perfect for attacks were it not 70km from home. Up to the line we have the Pico Villuercas which is much longer at 14.5km but has a much shallower average of 6.2%.

However, the climb very much goes up in steps with sections close to double digits followed by near plateaus. The flat start does not favour lighter climbers to make the break and nor does the potential headwind up the final climb. That may also blunt attacks from the favourites, but we should still see plenty of action.

Contenders

The profile leans towards a GC battle rather than the breakaway for the stage, but it’s in the balance so we need to have a play in both. As always, it will depend on who gets up the road, and who rides behind. Logically, Movistar should be the team to try to put pressure on Jumbo–Visma, but equally they don’t want to blow their own men off podium positions, so we’ll have to see.  

If it comes back together then Primož Roglič will probably win, and that’s that. He’s a best price of 4/1 and while his legs are good (which they are) he’ll want to put time into his rivals as you never know what’s going to happen tomorrow, especially given how often Roglič seems to hit the tarmac.

The Movistar pair of Enric Mas and Miguel Ángel López lie (effectively) second and third overall and have to try to take it to Jumbo–Visma and Roglič this weekend, so we can expect the old one-two attack at some point. If the likes of Sepp Kuss, Steven Kruijswijk, and Sam Oomen are still around then it’s unlikely to work. They’re available at 16/1 and 28/1 respectively. 

Ineos Grenadiers are not having a good Vuelta – no stage wins and looking a level below in the overall. But things can change and if anyone can match the level of Roglič it’s Egan Bernal. He’s not looked at his best but did well to stay with the front of the race on stage 13, stealing 5secs on the peloton showing his form isn’t terrible. The 50/1 about him is too tempting and worth a small interest. 

Adam Yates suffered bruising to his calf and shin following his crash on stage 12, so that’s a reason to stay away. Ineos will surely also be looking to get someone up the road for a chance of a stage win – Pavel Sivakov has come closest with a third on stage 7 and he’d be one of the strongest from a break. At 33/1, he’s in.

Jack Haig appears to be growing in confidence and is now a genuine podium threat. Bahrain–Victorious are looking so strong that they can afford to keep some riders back to support Haig and send others ahead in the break, either for a stage win or as a bridge later in the race.

Take your pick from Giro runner-up and stage 9 winner Damiano Caruso, double Dauphiné stage winner Mark Padun, Giro stage winner Gino Mäder, multiple stage winner Wout Poels, Jan Tratnik who remember was second up the Monte Zoncolan earlier this year, and of course recent Vuelta a Burgos winner and GC hope Mikel Landa, now with the freedom to stage hunt. Caruso is the favoured one with the bookies, but let’s stay loyal to the bigger priced Padun and Tratnik.

Second favourite for the stage is Michael Storer and it’s fair to say he’s brought some legs to this Vuelta. If his level hasn’t dropped, then there’s no reason why he can’t add a third stage victory here. However, again on price, Romain Bardet is the fifth pick – he’s been in the mix on several stages and looks like a stage winner waiting to happen. 

Finally, like Ineos, Astana–PremierTech are also winless so far. Ion Izagirre was punchy on stage 12 with a downhill attack that for a moment had a sniff of getting clear, and if he’s on his best climbing form, is classy enough to win from the break.

Stage 14 Bets

Egan Bernal 0.5pts each way (3 places) @50/1

Pavel Sivakov 0.5pts each way (3 places) @33/1

Mark Padun 0.5pts each way (3 places) @33/1

Jan Tratnik 0.5pts each way (3 places) @100/1

Romain Bardet 1pt each way (3 places) @12/1

Ion Izagirre 0.5pts each way (3 places) @50/1

Posted 21.57 BST Fri 27th Aug 2021