Stage 13 – Belmez > Villanueva de la Serena (203.7km)

Profile

Stage 12 Result

1st Magnus Cort Nielsen (14/1)

2nd Andrea Bagioli (16/1)

3rd Michael Matthews (8/1)

4th Matteo Trentin (16/1)

Stage 12 Bets

Matteo Trentin 2pts each way (4 places) @14/1 - 4th

Romain Bardet 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1

Jan Tratnik 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1

Mauri Vansevanent 1pt each way (4 places) @33/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)

Mini-chapeau. It turns out Magnus Cort wasn’t too tired after his exploits on stage 11 – and bizarrely becomes the fifth double-stage winner of this Vuelta just 12 stages in (after Roglič, Philipsen, Jakobsen, and Storer). It was a crazy, full-gas day without a break forming until 90km into the stage, and then not given much more than a minute.

UAE pulled for Trentin, then four sprang out the pack near the top of the final climb – Vine, Henao, Ciccone, and as predicted, Bardet. They got 30sec but a desperate BikeExchange pulled it back together inside the final 2km, only for EF and Cort to ambush them up the run-in. It was chaotic at times and yet the first five home were the first five in the betting, with Kron sprinting for fifth.

Stage 13 Preview

Long at over 200km and not quite as flat as it looks, the riders are in for a basting in the 35 degree heat up into Extremadura. And after a hard week, many in the peloton will be after an easier day, so we could see a smaller break forming relatively quickly, before a late chase to set up the sprint.

After this, there’s only one more opportunity for sprinters which is on stage 16, so it’s difficult to see them letting this chance go by. It’s quite a technical run-in, and you’ll need to be near the front for the corners and roundabouts inside the last 3km, before a slight rise to the line.

Contenders

Alpecin–Fenix’s Jasper Philipsen abandoned the Vuelta before stage 11 with a fever and so, after the loss of Juan Sebastián Molano, reduced the sprinting field down even further and therefore the number of teams to work on the front. 

However, it shouldn’t matter for this, and even though you can never be 100% sure of the condition and motivation of riders inside the team bus, we have to assume that this will end in a bunch sprint. 

The clear and deserved odds-on favourite is Decueninck–Quick-Step’s Fabio Jakobsen. Already a double stage winner, Jakobsen still has a full leadout with him which ought to be a massive advantage in this final. Pound for pound he’s been the fastest sprinter even with Philipsen in the lineup, and with a clear run it’s difficult to see the Dutchman being beaten. However, there’s an element of chaos in all sprints, so is the 4/6 available value?

Arnaud Démare turned 30 on stage 12, and a win here would be a perfect way to celebrate. Groupama–FDJ have been strangely inconsistent, but near his best Démare can beat anybody. He’s lost his wingman, Jacopo Guarnieri, and the 4/1 about him is nothing special, so we’ll give him the swerve again for this.

In fact, Jakobsen’s nearest rival now appears to be the impressive Alberto Dainese. His placings in the sprints so far have read 4th, 3rd, and 2nd – so he’s definitely moving in the right direction. He was a stage 8 pick at 20/1 but there’s nothing like that available now – the young Italian is a best priced 11/2. Still, as the up and coming sprinting talent, and given the short price on Jakobsen, Dainese is the pick.

Bora–Hansgrohe appear to have settled on Jordi Meeus as their lead sprinter ahead of Estonian Martin Laas, and Meeus finished an excellent 4th on stage 8. He’s got a good shot at making the frame again at 16/1.

And who else? Michael Matthews maybe for Team BikeExchange? But they’ve had a couple of very tough, fruitless days in the saddle. With Matthews luckless, they may even hand sprinting duties to Luka Mezgec. If the other sprinter’s legs are a bit shot, then the tough Slovenian could challenge at a big price, but that’s pretty speculative. 

Stage 13 Bets

Alberto Dainese 1pt each way (3 places) @11/2

Posted 21.17 BST Thu 26th Aug 2021