Stage 10 – L’Aquila > Foligno (139km)

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Stage 9 Result

1st Egan BERNAL (7/1); 2nd Giulio CICCONE (22/1); 3rd Aleksandr VLASOV (25/1); 4th Remco EVENEPOEL (16/1)

Recommended:

Alberto Bettiol 0.5pts each way @50/1 (3 places)

Alexander Cepeda 0.5pts each way @40/1 (3 places)

Harm Vanhoucke 0.5pts each way @50/1 (3 places)

Dani Martínez 0.5pts each way @50/1 (3 places)

Simon Yates 1pt each way @33/1 (3 places)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

No chapeau. In the end, the favourite won. But that doesn’t tell the whole story of another breathless, nervy day in the Apennines. The break took about 80km to form, but before that GC threats Caruso and Martínez managed to slip into a group and get 30secs on the ever-diminishing peloton. Mohorič drove the break hard for his teammate Caruso before a horrible crash ended with him in a neck brace being pushed into the back of an ambulance – the second Bahrain rider in this Giro to suffer that fate. Bouchard and Bouwman ended up being the strongest from the break that eventually formed but were cruelly caught inside the last 500m up the gravel finish. Again there were no huge time gaps between the major players, but Bernal looked very impressive and has rightfully firmed up in the market to take his second Grand Tour victory.

Preview

The riders continue their journey back up towards the north of the country in this short stage of just under 140km that should end in a sprint. But it’s complicated somewhat by a fourth-category climb that tops out around 40km from the finish.

If the sprint teams manage to hold it together, there’ll be an intense dash to be first around a crucial right-hander with around 1.5km to go. That’s followed by two tight left-handers at the flamme rouge as they turn back on themselves, before a final right turn and a flat race to the line.

Contenders

We’re nine days into a Grand Tour that started relatively calmly but has grown increasingly hectic over the last few stages. There have been some big fights to get into breakaways, domestiques chasing down attacks kilometre after kilometre, and plenty of sprinters hanging off the back pretty early. So that means a lot of tired legs for this final stage before a rest day, and many riders will be looking to get this one out of the way as drama-free as possible. 

Having stepped off the bike on stage 9 with a swollen knee, Caleb Ewan was probably a happy man watching it from his sofa as it was pretty much full gas all day – a very good decision. 

With Ewan back home, that’s the strongest sprint team out of the chase; there’ll be no Lotto engines doing most of the work on the front and other teams will have to step up. 

In fact, this stage could turn out to be a little more complicated for the sprint teams than you might think. 

Firstly, there’s a tough uphill start – it can’t be ruled out that some strong motors get up the road and when the buttons are pushed with around 50km to go, the depleted sprint teams can’t catch them. 

Who might have that kind of power? The likes of Deceuninck–Quick-Step’s Rémi Cavagna spring to mind, but the Belgian team have been very reluctant to let any of their troops off the leash – their only goal it seems is to give Remco Evenepoel the best chance of a high GC finish.

Israel Start-Up Nation pair Alex Dowsett and Matthias Brändle showed at last year’s Giro that their time trial power can keep them away on albeit a slightly lumpier stage. 

Lotto–Soudal’s Thomas De Gendt is another exceptionally strong engine, and he has been known to make breakaways that appear to have no chance of succeeding. 

One rider who looked super impressive on stage 8 was Slovenia’s Jan Tratnik. When he took to the nose of the peloton, the gap to the front came tumbling down. Bahrain–Victorious suffered another huge blow with Matej Mohorič’s fall, but they showed great resilience after losing Mikel Landa on stage 5, winning the next with Gina Mäder. Could they do it again with Tratnik?

On balance, a breakaway win is unlikely, but it’s definitely possible with the right men in it, and any hesitancy or weakness from the chasers could be fatal. 

As for the sprinters, we first have to consider what will happen on that 6km fourth-category climb which tops out with about 40km to go. If raced hard, some of the sprinters could get shelled out the back, or at least take some puff out of their sails for the final. Talking of wind, there’s a probable tail one on the climb, which is more bad news if you lose touch to the bunch. 

So who might put the hammer down on that climb? Bora–Hansgrohe for Peter Sagan is an obvious thought, UAE Team Emirates for Fernando Gaviria, and perhaps even Israel Start-Up Nation for Davide Cimolai or Patrick Bevin (assuming they don’t have a man up the road with a chance of a stage win). 

Gaviria of course had a nasty looking tumble in the breakaway on stage 8 when showing some really good form. Assuming he’s recovered from that, and if Molano can deliver him in a good position going into the last 2km, then he’s likely to be a big player in the sprint. 

Sagan has looked a level below his best so far but that’s perhaps not surprising considering he’s following up at the Tour in a month’s time – he may have come into the Giro a little undercooked and could well improve as we enter the second and third weeks. For now, there’s nothing to suggest he won’t just be competing for a place rather than the win. 

The fastest man left in the field is probably Alpecin–Fenix’s Tim Merlier, and the prices reflect that – he’s around a 3/1 favourite. That’s pretty short considering the possible complications on the stage, and the Belgian has looked particularly vulnerable when the road starts going uphill, so on balance it’s a “no bet” for Merlier. 

Another who hasn’t looked great on the climbs, understandably given his time off the bike, is Jumbo–Visma’s Dylan Groenewegen. Will he ride into form during this Giro or just get progressively worse? I’m not sure after nine days of tough racing if it’s worth getting involved with the Dutchman at any price, though around 16/1 does seem big for someone who was one of the best sprinters in the world until the Jakobsen incident. Groenewegen finished off the back of the grupetto on stage 8 with no teammates around him which isn’t the best of signs. That could mean that David Dekker finally gets an option to go for the sprint. It might not be decided before the stage, but if Groenewegen slips away on the climb, Dekker will get his chance. He’s a decent price at around 50/1, and it would be interesting to see how he matches up against the other fast men. 

We also can’t write off Giacomo Nizzolo. The Italian actually finished last on stage 8, behind Groenewegen, though it’s always tricky to know if that’s because he was swinging, or smartly managing his effort to come home in the slowest time possible, but inside the time cut. The climb shouldn’t overly tax him and if in a good position will fancy finally breaking his Giro duck. 

Whoever is left fighting for the win, the last 2km is going to be tricky. The race for that first right-hander will be ferocious as there’ll be limited opportunity to move up afterwards. And the final bend to the right will mean that sprints will have to be launched before they can actually see the line, making timing and positioning extra important. 

Fernando Gaviria 2pts win @11/1

David Dekker 0.5pts each way @50/1 (4 places)

Jan Tratnik 0.5pts each way @50/1 (4 places)

Posted 20.56 BST Sun 16th May 2021