Stage 11 – Perugia > Montalcino (162km)

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Stage 10 Result

1st Peter SAGAN (7/2); 2nd Fernando GAVIRIA (11/1); 3rd Davide CIMOLAI (12/1)

Recommended:

Fernando Gaviria 2pts win @11/1 – 2nd

David Dekker 0.5pts each way @50/1 (4 places)

Jan Tratnik 0.5pts each way @50/1 (4 places)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

Half-Chapeau. As predicted, Bora put the hammer down on the last two ascents and managed to get rid of some of the main sprinters – Groenewegen went first, followed by Merlier, and finally Nizzolo. The break was caught early – no chance of a surprise Taco van der Hoorn win this time. In fact they were never given more than 2mins 30secs, and a minute of that was chopped off instantly when they had to wait at a level crossing for a passing train. Sagan repaid his team’s hard work with the stage win, but had Gaviria followed the wheel of his leadout man Molano around the final bend, he surely would’ve got up for the victory. As it was he hesitated, perhaps expecting a Sagan elbow to squeeze him into the barriers, and Molano effectively led Sagan out for the win.

Preview

One of the most anticipated stages of this year’s Giro – the so-called “Strade Bianche stage” which includes over 35km of the white sterrati, or gravel roads, used in the famous one-day race.

The riders have had a day to recover after the rigours of the first week, and they’ll need it, as this promises to be a frantic, nervous, and potentially very decisive day in the battle for the pink jersey. 

The four sectors of gravel are packed into the final 70km of the race, during which there’s also over 2000m of climbing touching double digit gradients in places. Bike handling skills will be vital, as well as carrying a bit of luck – an untimely puncture and you could lose minutes.

Contenders

The profile for the first half of the race is relatively benign but there should be a big fight to get into the breakaway as a number of different riders will want to get up the road. Stage hunters will see this as an opportunity to bag a win, and GC teams will want some insurance ahead of the race before it blows apart in case their leader suffers a mechanical or to help drive on the pace and distance struggling rivals. 

It’s difficult to know how controlled this is going to be – will it feel like a normal stage race or a more chaotic one-day race with the field scattered all over route?

On balance I think Ineos–Grenadiers will be eyeing this stage as an opportunity to put time into competitors. With Ganna, Puccio, and especially Gianni Moscon, they have a team to put the hammer down on the gravel sectors and with Castroviejo, Narvaez, and Martínez can put the hurt on uphill.

It’s easy to envisage a rival such as Yates, Vlasov, or Carthy being distanced on a tricky downhill gravel section where bike handling is at a premium. Should that happen there’ll be no let up – they’ll try to bury them, and we could see a very select group of riders come to the finish. It would then be difficult to see how a breakaway can stay away.

Ineos can utilize these aggressive tactics because in their leader, Egan Bernal, they have a rider very adept on the gravel (third in Strade Bianche this year) and apparently back at the level of his Tour win two years ago. As with stage 9, Bernal is the most likely winner of this stage and is best priced at 9/2.

Depending on how well he can handle the gravel (hopefully his paisano Bernal has given him some tips), but Dani Martínez is still looking like a potental GC top 5 – if he’s there in the final, he could skip away and steal back some time. A small interest at 150/1.

So who else has proven form around Strade Bianchi and could be a clue to the stage 11 result?

There are a few riders in the field who delivered decent results in this year’s edition. Bahrain–Victorious’ Pello Bilbao came 10th less than 3mins off the winner Mathieu Van Der Poel (who delivered that ridiculously powerful finish in Sienna), but you’d think Bilbao will be nursing Damiano Caruso, who has some solid if not spectacular results there. 

14th that day was Alpecin–Fenix’s Gianni Vermeersch. Vermeersch was an impressive fifth in the stage 10 sprint, and with Tim Merlier now out of the race through sickness and fatigue, should have licence to get into the break. If he does, and it stays away, the Belgian could be a big player – at around 25/1 he’s worth an interest.

The tactics of EF Education–Nippo were interesting on that exhausting stage 9 – they seemed to want to fire as many riders as possible up the road into a breakaway that had no guarantee of competing for the win (and in the end didn’t). Clearly Alberto Bettiol and Ruben Guerreiro have freedom to chase a stage win, but there was a point on that stage where the Portuguese was in the front group and both Simon Carr and Jonathan Caicedo – up until that point solid domestiques for Hugh Carthy – were trying to join him.

It’s unclear whether that shows extreme confidence in the Lancastrian to handle himself, or they are very much hedging their bets. The latter I’m guessing. But if there’s one stage where Carthy will need some men around him it is this one. Bettiol (fourth in Strade Bianche in 2020), Carr (11th in 2021) and Guerreiro (22nd in 2019) can clearly all handle themselves on the gravel, but of those Bettiol is probably the most likely to be allowed to go for the win here – he’s around a 14/1 shot.

Two riders who have previously finished runner-up in Strade Bianche and are still serious GC contenders in this Giro are Romain Bardet and Davide Formolo. They’ll be looking to put some time into their rivals and cement top 10 GC places going into the mountains, and if the cards fall their way are definite contenders for the win here. Bardet and Formolo are around 28/1. 

One man who might fancy his chances if he manages to get in the break is none other than stage 10 winner Peter Sagan. His Strade Bianche record is decent – unsurprising given his exceptional bike handling – and may find himself the pick of the riders in the front group. At 40/1, he’s worth a pop.

Of course it’s not just about previous form in Strade, we need to look at who is flying right now. And, Bernal apart, no-one appears to be going better than Giulio Ciccone. He’s keen not to put too much pressure on himself as a GC hopeful, understandably being an Italian at the Giro. There’s a steep double digit rise to the line in the final 250m, and if Ciccone is with the front group, he has the explosiveness to finish it off. 

Remco Evenepoel apparently suffered from some kind of racing incident in the tunnel before the uphill dirt finish on stage 9 and lost his place at the front of the race. But he finished very impressively and flew past many of his rivals to finish fourth. His ability on these longer gravel sections, especially the slippery descents, is a bit of an unknown, but it would surprise no-one if it turned out he was brilliant. Evenepoel has Pieter Serry and Joäo Almeida, who both have good past results in Strade Bianche, to aid him. He’s been installed as second favourite at a best price of 9/1, so clearly the bookies believe so too.   

Stage 12 looks like a nailed-on breakaway stage, so many riders may be looking to just get through this one unscathed. It has the potential to be an unpredictable and chaotic stage – nervy for riders, but great for viewers. 

Gianni Vermeersch 0.5pts each way (4 places) @25/1

Alberto Bettiol 1pt each way (3 places) @14/1

Giulio Ciccone 1pt each way (4 places) @16/1

Peter Sagan 0.5pts each way (3 places) @40/1

Dani Martínez 0.25pts each (4 places) @150/1

Posted 21.34 BST Tue 18th May 2021