Stage 9 – Castel di Sangro > Campo Felice (158km)

Profile

Stage 8 Result

1st Victor LAFAY; 2nd Francesco GAVAZZI; 3rd Nikias ARNDT; 4th Nelson OLIVEIRA

Recommended:

Alberto Bettiol 2pts each way @ 11/1 (4 places)

Ruben Guerreiro 1pt each way @16/1 (4 places)

Luis León Sánchez 1pt each way @25/1 (4 places)

Bauke Mollema 1pt each way @25/1 (4 places)

Jhonatan Narváez 0.5pts each way @50/1 (4 places)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

No chapeau. A breathless start with crosswinds and an uphill drag meant the break took a long time to establish itself. Caleb Ewan stepped off citing knee pain and the need to prepare for the Tour – his abandonment was expected but perhaps not this early. Let’s hope he’s spot on to race against Bennett and Démare in France. A nine-man group finally got clear and FDJ steadied the peloton, doing a pretty decent job considering the hectic first 50km. In the end it was young Cofidis rider Victor Lafay who was the strongest for a landmark win. Both Hindley and Bilbao were caught behind a crash in the final and lost more time on GC – their Giro goes from bad to worse.

Preview

The first proper mountain stage of this year’s Giro and it’s up and down all day – four categorized climbs with virtually no flat road between them. The final test is a first-category ascent up to the Campo Felice ski station with a steep (max 14%), gravel section for the last 1.6km. 

The profile has the look of yet another breakaway win, but if a GC team senses a weakness in a rival or their leader is feeling particularly good, they’ll put their foot down and a small break might be caught. Either way, there will be time gaps between the major players and it’s definitely not a day to have bad legs.

Contenders

The road rises from the flag and we should see a big break going clear. FDJ will have a difficult job policing the front – as it was for them on stage 8. We may see some GC teams putting someone in the break so they can help out deeper into the stage, but we can also expect it to be packed with talented climbers with time on GC.

Will it stay away? That depends on the tactics behind – when will a team (probably Ineos) put the hammer down? Unusually, Monday is not a rest day – there’s a flattish stage to overcome before the riders can put their feet up (and have a Covid-19 PCR test – fingers and toes crossed on that one), but the next big GC day isn’t until Wednesday (the Strade Bianche stage), so I expect there to be a thunderous pace and fireworks on the final climb. That means the breakaway win might be tight – splitting the staking plan is essential.

So who’s going up the road? Maglia azzurra wearer Gino Mäder, already a stage winner, tried to get in on stage 8 which was strange as I thought he would save his legs for this where a lot more mountains points are up for grabs. This is a big day for the blue jersey with a total of 85 points available; if the Swiss has eyes on taking it to Milan then he’ll have to battle for them which may take some sting out of his legs for the difficult final. 

Ruben Guerreiro tried and tried to get into the break on stage 8 but had no luck. He may also be looking at mountains points to try to defend the jersey he won last year but would obviously be a big danger for the stage win too. However, he’s still only 6mins off GC, which might be a bit too close for comfort. I wonder also whether he’ll be held back to add firepower to Hugh Carthy’s mountain train. 

Guerreiro’s EF teammate Alberto Bettiol didn’t look to be interested in getting up the road on stage 8, leaving it all to the Portuguese, which makes you think he might be looking at this stage. Although not a pure climber, the Italian should be able to cope with the climbs here – the penultimate second-category averages only 5.1% – and it’ll all be settled on the burst up the gravel road, which sounds perfect for him.  

Trek’s Bauke Mollema was very unlucky on stage 6 – he was one of the instigators of the original break that was brought back, and when Mohorič launched the decisive move, he just missed getting onto the back of it. Bahrain, understandably, made him work very hard to bridge which ruined his chances in the final – if he’s recovered from that effort then could be a big player here. 

With Caleb Ewan going home, Lotto Soudal’s troops are free to chase stage wins. Kobe Goossens made the break on stage 8 and in the end was a little disappointing given his form in the Tour de Romandie, finishing sixth – he was the in-running favourite before the first attacks were launched. Lotto will definitely want representation in the break and in Thomas De Gendt and Harm Vanhoucke they have big options. They are both best priced at 50/1. 

I’m going back in with Androni’s Alexander Cepeda – it was good to see him make the initial break on stage 6, albeit in vain, and this terrain is right up the Ecuadorian’s street. He’s coming off the back of good form from the Tour of the Alps, and if he’s got the legs after a long, tough week can go close. 40/1 is decent. 

This is a stage that can easily be over-analysed. It’s the first big GC day, with a rest day coming up, Ineos have looked the strongest team and Egan Bernal has looked the strongest rider – should he win, it will look obvious. At around 7/1 for the stage he’s plenty short enough though. 

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Bernal’s paisano Dani Martínez attack first on that final climb. Ineos love to have numbers at the top of the GC leaderboard and Martínez is currently just outside the top 10 – at 50/1 he could get a jump and stay away.

Simon Yates was the joint favourite with Bernal coming into the Giro. He’s struggled a little with the cold, rainy conditions on the two climbing days we’ve had so far, but his time losses have not been catastrophic. There’s nothing to suggest that with more favourable conditions (there is no rain forecast for stage 9) he won’t recapture his form at the Tour of the Alps. For me, 33/1 is overpriced and an overreaction to his performances so far. 

I have to admit the form of Remco Evenepoel has surprised me. I didn’t think it was possible to have such a long layoff after a really bad injury and then suddenly compete for a Grand Tour, on debut – but that’s exactly what he’s doing. It just shows what a special rider he is – I wouldn’t put anything past him now, including winning this stage. 

Trek’s Giulio Ciccone looks to be flying, and he looks eager to attack whenever possible. He might be the one to instigate the moves on the final climb. Whether he can get clear is another issue.  

This is a tricky stage to predict (not that the previous eight have been easy – we’ve had some random results to say the least). So the bet units will be small and split between break and GC. The make-up of the breakaway and motivations of those behind will determine who wins the day.  

More importantly, stage 9 has the makings of being a very exciting bike race – the first not-to-miss stage of the Giro, and we’ll know a lot more about who’s likely to be lifting the Trofeo Senza Fine by the end of it. Enjoy. 

Stage 9 Bets

Alberto Bettiol 0.5pts each way @50/1 (3 places)

Alexander Cepeda 0.5pts each way @40/1 (3 places)

Harm Vanhoucke 0.5pts each way @50/1 (3 places)

Dani Martínez 0.5pts each way @50/1 (3 places)

Simon Yates 1pt each way @33/1 (3 places)

Posted 21.40 BST Sat 15th May 2021