Stage 12 – Siena > Bagno di Romagna (212km)

Profile

Stage 11 Result

1st Mauro SCHMID; 2nd Alessandro COVI; 3rd Harm VANHOUCKE; 4th Dries DE BONDT

Recommended:

Gianni Vermeersch 0.5pts each way (4 places) @25/1

Alberto Bettiol 1pt each way (3 places) @14/1

Giulio Ciccone 1pt each way (4 places) @16/1

Peter Sagan 0.5pts each way (3 places) @40/1

Dani Martínez 0.25pts each (4 places) @150/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

No chapeau. A surprisingly sedate start without the predicted huge fight to get in the break and no GC teams represented. They were given over 14mins and it was clear that the stage win would come from the front group. As it was, the GC men got to within 3mins on the line, with yet another impressive young Swiss rider Mauro Schmid taking his first pro win – and what a stage to do it on. Ganna lit it up going into the first gravel sector and immediately distanced Evenepoel, Carthy, Vlasov, Caruso and Yates. Formolo appeared to suffer a mechanical and wasn’t seen again, ultimately losing 6mins on his competitors. He was joined by Dan Martin, who lost a similar amount, as the biggest GC losers on the day – they’ll have to reassess their goals. The Evenepoel group did get back on but it was a sign of things to come, and after a mix up with his teammate Almeida, lost around 2mins to Bernal – not game over, but a day to forget for the young Belgian. In the end, the GC contenders came home in ones and twos in another exhausting stage and many will be happy to have that day behind them. Bernal looks peerless and barring an accident or his back flaring up, unbeatable.

Preview

A long, tough looking stage that looks ideal for a breakaway to take the win. The riders will negotiate four categorized climbs (two third-category and two second-category) as they head back east over the Apennines in central Italy. 

The third-category ascents are shorter but contain the most severe gradients, and the final one – the Passo del Carnaio with sections of 14% – tops out with less than 10km to go and will be where the final attacks are launched to decide the day’s winner.

Contenders

With stage 11 being so brutal and a parcours that doesn’t really lend itself to GC attacks, this should end in a breakaway win. So it’s one of those days to look down the list of talented climbers who have time on GC, have looked in good form, and should be given some freedom from their teams. 

Stage 6 winner Gino Mäder came across the line last on stage 11, though it’s difficult to read too much into that – lost his legs or saving them? The Swiss has spoken of his respect for the mountains jersey that he held for three days and his desire to win it overall. Stage 12 is not a decisive day in that competition, so he may save his legs for the higher mountains in the second half of the race. That said, he’s looked very active on the front, and if he makes the break can go all the way.   

AG2R Citröen’s Geoffrey Bouchard took possession of the maglia azzurra from Mäder and has looked very punchy on a number of stages. After a monumental effort to first make the break and then to attack from it, Bouchard was left in tears after being caught in the final 500m of the gravel finish on stage 8. His aspirations appear to be the opposite of Mäder – a stage win is the Frenchman’s main goal. Bouchard has to be a pick for this stage.

This could finally be the day that Thomas De Gendt has a dig, despite admitting that he’s been suffering from a niggling knee injury. Lotto–Soudal have only five riders and the single goal of winning a stage. Kobe Goossens has twice been in breaks but is struggling to find his best form after suffering from illness before the Giro. Harm Vanhoucke, with the help of Roger Kluge, finished a good third on the Strade stage, and Stefano Oldani is more of a sprinter. So that only leaves De Gendt as a breakaway option for this – it’s not original, but he’s a bet. 

DSM have Romain Bardet just outside the top 10 and going pretty well, and Jai Hindley, who’s also been sick, sitting less than 8mins from the top. Hindley is probably still a little close in the general classification to be allowed any freedom. But with Bardet still a bit of a GC long shot, it wouldn’t be surprising if they fired someone up the road. Australian Michael Storer and Irishman Nicolas Roche are definitely the most likely. Of the two, Storer gets the nod after his impressive third last month in the Tour of the Alps. 

Second that day was Felix Großschartner, who surprisingly we haven’t seen in a breakaway. He’s very much been working for the team so far – for Peter Sagan and Emanuel Buchmann – and with his fellow German riding so impressively on stage 11, hauling himself up nine places to sixth on GC, he may again be held back on domestique duties. The same probably goes for Matteo Fabbro. 

Jumbo–Visma’s George Bennett looked lively on stage 11, attacking with his now leader Tobias Foss to try to steal some time. They got 30secs at one point but were ultimately reeled in. The New Zealand champion will be looking to salvage something from this Giro after his own hopes went up in smoke. He might be given the freedom to go ahead, but with Foss still high in ninth, as well as his tiring exploits on the gravel, it’s not certain. 

Both Dan Martin and Davide Formolo saw their GC hopes all but finished on the Strade stage. But at a tantalising 7mins off Bernal, would they be allowed to join a break? I doubt it.  

EF Education–Nippo pair Alberto Bettiol and Ruben Guerreiro have good profiles for this stage and are both clearly on terrific form, but they had a super hard day on stage 11 protecting Hugh Carthy – will they have the legs to attack just a day later? Bettiol especially might be extra motivated to make the break as the route passes near his home town of Poggibonsi. Guerreiro is very short at around 15/2, so Bettiol is better value at more than double that.

I think we have to add Trek–Segafredo’s Bauke Mollema to the staking plan. He’s attacked several times but has been luckless in his pursuit of a stage win – perhaps this is the day.

Geoffrey Bouchard 1pt each way (3 places) @40/1

Thomas De Gendt 1pt each way (3 places) @75/1

Michael Storer 0.5pts each way (3 places) @70/1 

Alberto Bettiol 1pt each way (3 places) @20/1

Bauke Mollema 1pt each way (3 places) @25/1

Posted 21.24 BST Wed 19th May 2021