Stage 13 – Ravenna > Verona (198km)

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Stage 12 Result

1st Andrea VENDRAME (125/1); 2nd Chris HAMILTON (200/1); 3rd George BENNETT (25/1); 4th Gianluca BRAMBILLA (33/1)

(Note – Brambilla crossed the line in third but was relegated to fourth after deviating from his line in the sprint with Bennett)

Recommended:

Geoffrey Bouchard 1pt each way (3 places) @40/1

Thomas De Gendt 1pt each way (3 places) @75/1

Michael Storer 0.5pts each way (3 places) @70/1 

Alberto Bettiol 1pt each way (3 places) @20/1

Bauke Mollema 1pt each way (3 places) @25/1

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

No chapeau. It took the best part of two hours before a break was formed. By then, Marc Soler and Gino Mäder had already abandoned, and Alessandro De Marchi became the third rider to leave the race in an ambulance with multiple fractures. Maglia azzurra wearer Bouchard was well placed in the breakaway as he had a teammate in Andrea Vendrame to pull for him and sacrifice himself. Strangely, he didn’t, but then we realized why as he smartly attacked solo and got a 10secs head start before the final ascent. Gianluca Brambilla, Chris Hamilton and breakaway favourite George Bennett did get back on, but by then it was all downhill and flat to the line and none of them were going to beat Vendrame in a sprint finish. Veteran Giovanni Visconti came home fifth with Bouchard in sixth 1min 25secs behind (having wasted energy chasing back on after being distanced on the descents, and faffing with various rain jackets). Vincenzo Nibali attacked on the final descent and clawed back 7secs on GC, but more importantly put some pressure on Ineos which resulted in Gianni Moscon sliding off on a wet bend, completely unnecessarily as Nibali is more than 4mins back.

Preview

If there’s one stage in this year’s Giro where you could probably tune in for the last 10km and not really miss anything, it is this one. It’s completely flat and pretty long at nearly 200km as the peloton makes its way back up to the north of Italy, ready for the mountains on the weekend.

We’re a couple of sprint teams down (Lotto–Soudal and Alpecin–Fenix) but there should still be enough strength and motivation to peg and then bring back the break. Some crosswinds could alter that script – and there are some 20kph cross-tail gusts forecast for the stage – but it’s still almost certain to end in a run to the line for the fast men.

Contenders

The only remaining “flat” stage in this edition is stage 18, but that has a seriously tricky final which is primed for a late attack or breakaway win. So this is probably the last chance for the sprinters to take a stage win, and unless you have eyes on competing for the maglia ciclamino, may be your final stage before departing the race altogether. 

Today’s the day. After eleven second place Giro finishes (including a first-past-the-post and subsequent relegation in the final stage in 2016), Giacomo Nizzolo will win stage 13 of this year’s Giro. Possibly. The final is wide, straight and flat so should favour the fastest man left in the field. From what we’ve seen, that’s probably Nizzolo who – in the sprints where he’s competed – has only had Ewan and Merlier in front of him, both of whom have gone home.

Whilst you never know how someone is feeling, the Italian champion appears to have finished comfortably with the grupetto on the last couple of stages and hasn’t suffered any spills that we’re aware of. Buoyed by rookie Mauro Schmid’s maiden win on stage 11, Nizzolo can make it a Qhubeka Assos Giro double here. The 7/2 about him is decent enough – so he’s the pick.

Had Fernando Gaviria either followed his leadout man Sebastián Molano or chosen a different side to go around Peter Sagan, he probably would’ve won stage 10. He’s close but there doesn’t seem to be much trust between him and his fellow Colombian. Gaviria certainly has the pace and if delivered in a good position, can win – but he’ll need his luck and his communication with Molano to improve. As for Sagan, this flat speedster final isn’t ideal for him so is likely to find one or two too good. 

Dylan Groenewegen has done well to still be in the race given his lengthy absence from the sport. It’s been brutal at times for the heavier guys, and he’s often been the first off the back. There seems to be a lot of talk of Groenewegen “riding into form” and “needing miles in the legs”, but I think it’s equally plausible that he’s just getting progressively more knackered. The Dutchman is favourite with some bookmakers at around 3/1, which I can’t have. That said, this flat finish suits his power sprinter characteristics and if he’s anywhere near his best will be difficult to pass.

The Giro hasn’t gone that well for Elia Viviani. A couple of thirds and a fourth – he’s been there or thereabouts but not really threatened for the win. He has a good leadout man in Simone Consonni but has lacked a bit of luck, and a bit of speed. He should be chipper heading into this though as he’s just been named – along with shooter Jessica Rossi – as a flag bearer for Italy at the opening ceremony of the Tokyo Olympics. If that helps him find a couple of yards then he can win.

Israel Start-Up Nation’s Davide Cimolai has been impressive with two seconds and a third, but they’ve all been on stages with profiles much tougher than this, where the faster sprinters had either been dropped or had their legs deadened. Another place finish would be an excellent result for Cimolai. The same goes for Trek’s Matteo Moschetti, who has threatened but so far not made the places.

The only other sprinter you could envisage challenging would be Jumbo–Visma’s David Dekker, but I’ve given up waiting for his team to back him in a sprint – no doubt they’ll be all in for Groenewegen again. 

Stage 13 Bets

Giacomo Nizzolo 3pts win @7/2

Posted 19.46 BST Thu 20th May 2021