Stage 14 – Cittadella > Monte Zoncolan (205km)

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Stage 13 Result

1st Giacomo NIZZOLO (7/2); 2nd Edoardo AFFINI (250/1); 3rd Peter SAGAN (13/2)

Recommended:

Giacomo Nizzolo 3pts win @7/2 – 1st

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

Chapeau! Predictably, the first 190km of this stage were pretty dull, only punctuated by a Fernando Gaviria trip to the doctor’s car with a nosebleed, and an attempted Franco-Belgian ambush instigated by Thomas De Gendt and Rémi Cavagna about 50km out. That succeeded in waking up the peloton but not forcing the necessary gap to keep it going for more than a few kilometres. Qhubeka–Assos took to the front 6km out to safely negotiate the roundabouts into Verona but were swamped by GC teams and other sprint leadouts a couple of kilometres later, and Nizzolo found himself about 20 riders back going underneath the flamme rouge, not helped either by his final leadout man Max Walscheid dropping his chain. With the sprint leadouts a little disorganized, Eduardo Affini showed amazing strength to attack off the front about 600m from the line and got within 50m of taking an incredible win. But Nizzolo came from behind at speed, first onto Gaviria’s wheel and then over the top of Affini’s to finally seal his first ever Giro win. Chapeau Giacomo!

Profit (+10.5pts)

Preview

The first of the designated five-star stages, and one that’s sure to see a shake-up in the general classification. It’s a relatively flat first 120km before the peloton tackle the second-category Forcella di Monte Rest (10.5km at 5.9%). They then wind down to the foot of the formidable Monte Zoncolan, on which Chris Froome rode to victory in 2018.

The riders go up the slightly less demanding road from Sutrio (Froome and the previous four ascents all started in the town of Ovaro to the west), but it’s still an incredibly daunting climb – 14.1km at an average of 8.5% are the bare statistics but that doesn’t tell the whole story. The final 3km average 13% and touch a ridiculous 27%, and this is where we can expect the favourites to launch their attacks.

Contenders

Gino Mäder and Egan Bernal apart, all five of the other non-sprint or time trial stages have been won by riders at triple-figure odds, and the bookies must be loving it. Whilst the Giro is often more unpredictable than the Tour – where a huge-priced winner is much more of a rarity – this has been on another level and puzzling for the punter. 

So will we get another rag outsider winning stage 14? I doubt it. This is a marquee stage and an iconic climb that many of the “better” riders will want on their palmarès. To win from a break is going to be difficult. Not only will you need to be an exceptional climber but you’ll also need a big head start going onto the Zoncolan. With the gradients as they are, I think it’s possible to lose over 2mins in the last 3km, and over 5mins on the climb as a whole. 

Ultimately though it will be decided by the pace and motivations of teams behind, and specifically those of Ineos. Whilst Ineos could play a defensive game and wait for other teams to push the pace or attack, I don’t think they will. We’ve seen how strong they are, stronger than any rival team, and they will see this – as they did on the road up to Campo Felice on stage 9 – as another opportunity for Egan Bernal to put time into his challengers. I expect Ineos to have control of the peloton leading into the Zoncolan and whittle down the front group on it, deterring attacks with a furious pace – with Ganna, Castroviejo, Narvaez, and Moscon – seeing if they can shell a GC man out the back.

Bernal hinted in his interview after stage 13 that he’d be happy just to defend his pink jersey on the Zoncolan. I don’t believe him – he’s very conscious of having time in the bank before the final time trial in Milan; he doesn’t want to be chasing that time in the final week – it’s much smarter to attack here and defend later. Some of Bernal’s rivals have also shown some weaknesses  – notably Remco Evenepoel (who lost a key mountain domestique in Fausto Masnada on stage 12) and Giulio Ciccone, both losing time on the Strade stage – and if Ineos smell blood, will go for the kill. Expect Bernal to attack in the final 3km and win the stage.

Talking of smelling blood, I think the biggest chance of one of the favourites not winning this stage doesn’t come from the breakaway, but if a classy climber attacks early on the Zoncolan and is given some leeway due to their GC position – how about “The Shark” himself Vincenzo Nibali animating the stage with a long range attack? Who else could fit that mould? Romain Bardet (3mins 29secs), Dan Martin (7mins 6secs), Davide Formolo (7mins 16secs), João Almeida (7mins 4secs)? All five have the climbing ability to distance the peloton if the pace isn’t quite on the limit, though Almeida may have to work for Evenepoel (not that that went particularly well on stage 11).

I’ve predicted it a couple of times and it hasn’t happened but there’s also a possibility that Dani Martínez (10th at 3mins 15secs) is used as a foil to Bernal and attacks first, forcing the hand of those ahead of him in the general classification. 

Second and third on GC are Aleksandr Vlasov and Damiano Caruso. I don’t think it’s a stretch to suggest that both would be ecstatic to finish the Giro in those podium positions. This makes them less likely to attack Bernal and just cover attacks from those behind.

And directly behind are two Brits: Hugh Carthy and Simon Yates. Yates did a great job into Montalcino, limiting his losses on a stage that he slammed for its inclusion in a Grand Tour in the rest day press conference. He clearly suffered on the cold, wet stages in the first week and lost some time, but he’s ridden cannily, has not appeared to waste energy, and crucially avoided disaster. Yates is coming into his terrain now – the high mountains, and it would not be a surprise for him to reignite the spark we saw at the Tour of the Alps.  

Carthy is also riding stealthily. EF Education–Nippo put in a fantastic team performance – Ruben Guerreiro and Alberto Bettiol especially – to keep the Lancastrian safe on stage 11. He’ll be glad that’s behind him and can concentrate on the second half of this race. These high gradient slopes at the top of the Zoncolan really suit Carthy – as we saw at last year’s Vuelta a España where he won on the Angliru – and we could easily see him moving up the GC by the end of the day, if not riding away with a stage victory.  

Bora–Hansgrohe’s Emanuel Buchmann tends to go under the radar, usually because of a defensive racing style, but we saw none of that on stage 11 – he looked super impressive when he attacked the favourites and only Bernal got back up to him. Like Yates, Buchmann struggled with the cold conditions of the first week but certainly looks like he’s riding into form.

If Ineos give the break as much rope as they did on stage 11 (over 14mins, and managed to pull back 11 of those) then it could go all the way. However, you’d still need to be an exceptional climber, so who could that be? George Bennett, Koen Bouwman, Jai Hindley, Alex Cepeda? Both Bennett and Bouwman might be held back to help Tobias Foss on the final climb – this is a huge test for the 2019 Tour de l’Avenir winner. Cepeda has been largely anonymous for Androni, who like to be visible, which is strange, unless he’s being saved for the high mountains. So Hindley gets the nod – he was sick earlier in the race but has shown some signs of recovery and as we saw in last year’s Giro, is no slouch going up the steep stuff.

The final wildcard is the weather which looks at the moment like it’s going to be cold and wet (not great news for the likes of Yates and Buchmann). But it might not be as big a problem as it was in the first week. Luckily, there’s only one significant descent – off the second-category climb before Monte Zoncolan – so if the riders can get their woolies on before that, the 14km at 8.5% on the big mountain itself should warm them up nicely.

Stage 14 Bets

Egan Bernal 5pts win @9/4

Davide Formolo 1pt each way @22/1 (4 places)

Jai Hindley 1pt each way @28/1 (4 places)

Posted 20.46 BST Fri 21st May 2021