Stage 15 – Grado > Gorizia (147km)

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Stage 14 Result

1st Lorenzo FORTUNATO (150/1); 2nd Jan TRATNIK (400/1); 3rd Alessandro COVI (400/1); Egan BERNAL (9/4)

Recommended:

Egan Bernal 5pts win @9/4 – 4th

Davide Formolo 1pt each way @22/1 (4 places)

Jai Hindley 1pt each way @28/1 (4 places) – Void (did not start)

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

Half-chapeau. The best performance of second division EOLO-Kometa’s Lorenzo Fortunato before this was probably fourth on GC in the Tour of Albania. It’s fair to say he’s topped that, and lands the sixth triple-figure odds winner of this year’s Giro. Surprisingly, it was Astana who initially took it up on the front to peg a strong break driven along by Edoardo Affini for George Bennett (who just didn’t have the legs in the end). All that work was for Aleksandr Vlasov, but he ended up going backwards on GC. Ineos took it up on the Zoncolan as predicted, and brought the break back from 6mins 30secs to less than 3mins, but Bernal fell 1min 43secs short of taking the stage. Yates was another big winner on GC and is looking better and better, but now has 1min 33secs to make up on Bernal, somehow.

Preview

Stage 15 starts on an island in the Adriatic Sea. Luckily for the riders, the peninsula and town of Grado is connected by road to the mainland. It’s short at just under 150km and leaves Italy for the first time, popping over the border to Slovenia and taking in three 30km circuits before ending in the border town of Gorizia. 

There are three passes of the fourth-category Gornje Cerovo (1.7km at 8.5%) and some smaller lumps and bumps along the way, which will make it very difficult for sprint teams to control. Crucially, the final categorized ascent tops out just 17km from the finish, and then there is an uncategorized rise of 1km maxing at 14% inside the last 5km, which are both perfect for a late attack.

Contenders

This stage leans towards a breakaway win. The parcours for the second half of the stage is particularly tricky and it’s difficult to see which teams would work to bring it back without the guarantee of a sprint. 

Bora–Hansgrohe could be one for Peter Sagan, but surely, with Emanuel Buchmann still in GC contention, they’re going to hold their troops back for Monday’s brutal stage in the Dolomites. Fair play if they can deliver Sagan to the final – and he is a strong favourite for the stage – but it’s not going to be easy.

UAE Team Emirates for Fernando Gaviria perhaps? I wrote in the preview for stage 13 that the Colombian’s luck would have to change for him to take a stage win. Halfway into that stage he had to visit the doctor’s car for a nosebleed, and then in the last few kilometres his saddle fell off – so I’m guessing he’s still saving up all that good luck. At around 20/1 compared to Sagan’s 5/2, it seems like very good value and cover should it all come back together.

A lot of the riders will be conscious of the mammoth day they’ve got ahead of them on stage 16, and any riders who will have a job to do are unlikely to go very deep here. A case in point is EF Education–Nippo. I think they’ll hold their men back to help Hugh Carthy on Monday, and even though Alberto Bettiol and Ruben Guerreiro are high in the market, I think it’s best to stay away. 

Deceuninck–Quick-Step are without a win so far in this Giro which is almost unprecedented, and with Remco Evenepoel seemingly going backwards as a GC threat, they’ll definitely be eyeing stages like this to get them on the board. Rémi Cavagna and Mikkel Honoré are good options for either the breakaway or a late attack. They’re both available at around 40/1. 

Similarly, Jumbo–Visma – who came here with both sprint and GC hopes – will not want to go home empty handed. George Bennett and Koen Bouwman are breakaway options in the mountains, but their standout performance so far in this Giro has been Edoardo Affini. Second on the opening day time trial, he almost stole the stage 13 sprint with an incredible burst off the front, and put in a monster ride on stage 14 almost single-handedly keeping the peloton at bay. From the expressions on his face, it looked like he’d need a couple of weeks to recover from that effort, but if he can bounce back quickly and fancies a long range attack, it’s difficult to see anyone pulling him back. At 400/1, he’s worth a speculative punt (subsequently cut to 80s before this preview was finished).

The obvious pick for this stage before the Giro even started was Jan Tratnik as it crosses into his home country of Slovenia. But he surprised everyone by getting in the break a day early and came within 26secs of an amazing win on the Zoncolan. A stage winner in last year’s Giro on a similar parcours as this, if he’s got anything left in his legs, he’s sure to want to put on a show for his people. 

One man who I think will love this up and down circuit course is DSM’s Nikias Arndt. Already with a third on stage 8 on a parcours which was not ideal for him, the German is tough, versatile and, if he comes to the line in a reduced group, packs a sprint that could see off rivals.

Israel Start-Up Nation might be all over this stage, especially as Dan Martin’s GC challenge appears to be over. With Davide Cimolai, Patrick Bevin, and Matthias Brändle they can challenge in a sprint, late attack, or breakaway.

If the break is brought back, then this could turn into quite a chaotic final with attacks flying off all over the place. For that reason, I think it’s best to keep stakes low and bets a little speculative, covering all scenarios. 

Fernando Gaviria 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1

Rémi Cavagna 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1

Edoardo Affini 0.5pts each way (4 places) @80/1

Jan Tratnik 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1

Nikias Arndt 0.5pts each way (4 places) @150/1

Posted 20.31 BST Sat 22nd May 2021