Stage 16 – Sacile > Cortina d’Ampezzo (212km)

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Stage 15 Result

1st Victor CAMPENAERTS (100/1); 2nd Oscar RIESEBEEK (250/1); 3rd Nikias ARNDT (150/1); 4th Simone CONSONNI (125/1)

Recommended:

Fernando Gaviria 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1

Rémi Cavagna 1pt each way (4 places) @22/1

Edoardo Affini 0.5pts each way (4 places) @80/1

Jan Tratnik 0.5pts each way (4 places) @40/1

Nikias Arndt 0.5pts each way (4 places) @150/1 – 3rd

Chapeau or no (chapeau)?

Chapeau! A huge fight for the break at high speed across the causeway back onto the mainland caused a horrible crash and the correct decision to neutralize the race so that ambulances could help the wounded. Four riders, including GC contender Emanuel Buchmann, abandoned before the peloton had gone 5km, in what’s turning into a really attritional Giro.

After the restart, a big group got away and pretty quickly it was clear that the break (yet again) would win the day. It was packed with strong riders, but in the end Qhubeka–Assos would land their third victory of the Giro with Campenaerts.

Profit (+12.75pts)

Preview

A big, big day in the Dolomites – 5,700 metres of climbing, three first-category climbs, and the Cima Coppi over the Passo Pordoi, the highest point in the race at 2,239 metres altitude. The riders go up the first-category La Crosetta (11.6km at 7.1%) as soon as the flag drops, which favours the lighter climbers for getting into the day’s break, assuming they’ve warmed up beforehand. 

It’s probably too early in the race for some early attacks from the major players, and although the field will be seriously whittled down by the time they go over the Cima Coppi, we likely won’t see GC attacks until the final first-category Passo Giau – a brute at almost 10km averaging 9.3% – before a 17km descent to the line.

Contenders

We can expect a pretty big group – maybe 20 plus riders – to go clear, comprising of stage hunters, GC domestiques who can help their leaders later in the day, and maybe some riders just trying to get a head start, on what promises to be a savage day, especially if the weather comes in. 

Whether the break that gets away stays away will, as always, be determined by the strategies and motivations of those behind. It seems early for us to see some kind of Hail Mary attack à la Chris Froome on the Colle delle Finestre in 2018, but some riders will already be thinking about what tactics they can deploy to claw back some time on Egan Bernal, who looks unbeatable in a straight fight. So who might fancy a long one? Vincenzo Nibali cut the engines on the Zoncolan and is now over 14mins back on GC. If he doesn’t make the break – which is also possible – he might fancy attacking on the first-category Passo Fedaia or the Cima Coppi Passo Pordoi as a speculative tilt at a stage win or to act as a bridge for Giulio Ciccone. 

Dan Martin and João Almeida are both around 8mins down and may be allowed a little leeway if they decided to attack early, perhaps on the last climb. Almeida especially is looking better and better and it’s a shame that he lost time in the first week and subsequently even more supporting Remco Evenepoel. The Portuguese could win here in a number of scenarios – from the break, an early attack, or staying at the front and winning a sprint from a reduced group. Evenepoel himself has admitted that, with his GC challenge seemingly going backwards, Almeida now has a licence to chase a stage win – he’s my first pick. 

With the stage ending in a lengthy descent, Romain Bardet might fancy one his classic attacks over the top, but it’s difficult to imagine him still in the company of Bernal and Simon Yates when we get near the top.

Whether by accident or design, Yates’ cautious opening to the race appeared to pay dividends on the Monte Zoncolan when he looked back to his best. Unfortunately, Bernal looks a step above, at least for the moment. Grand Tours are long affairs and there are countless examples of watching seemingly indomitable opposition crumble as the race goes on. Yates will be looking to stay at the front, test Bernal, and importantly, put time into those behind him to cement his second place. 

Who could get in the break and take it all the way? So far in this Giro, many of the most likely break-makers and stage winners have either failed or been stopped from getting up the road. But that should stop here. Simply, the strongest climbers can make the break if they have the legs – so we need to be looking at riders who’ve gone well uphill here and in recent races, and obviously have a big chunk of time on GC.

With Marc Soler being forced to abandon on stage 13, Movistar will be looking to fire some men up the road and hope the breakaway takes the win. They have several options – Davide Villela, Einar Rubio, but I think the pick of them is Antonio Pedrero, who beat many fine climbers up to the top of the Zoncolan, including Evenepoel. Pedrero is included as the first breakaway hopeful.

We haven’t seen much of Androni's talented climber Alex Cepeda. He was hanging around the starters car on stage 14 but the long, flat terrain before they hit the mountains was not ideal for the little Colombian to get in the breakaway – he’s much more suited here. Cepeda is my second breakaway pick. 

The experienced Czech rider Jan Hirt now rides for the Belgian outfit Intermarché–Wanty–Gobert Matériaux, and it would be completely in keeping with the trend of this year’s Giro to see one of the smaller teams land a huge win. Hirt finished really well on the Zoncolan, around 30secs behind GC hopefuls. Though not a prolific winner, he could find himself one of the strongest riders deep into this stage. He’s another breakaway pick.

How about UAE’s Davide Formolo? A GC contender coming into the Giro, the Italian suffered a fall on the Strade stage and lost a chunk of time. Along with Nibali, he pulled the cord pretty early on the Zoncolan – was that to save his legs or because of a lack of them? Formolo is second favourite for the stage (behind Bernal) at around 8/1. That seems a bit skinny considering how many good climbers could go up the road, how we don’t know about the after effects of his fall, and his below-par performance on the Zoncolan. Formolo could run away with this, but I’m staying away at those odds. 

With George Bennett up the road, Jumbo–Visma’s Koen Bouwman stayed with Tobias Foss on stage 14, but he ultimately struggled in what was a huge test for the young Norwegian. Bennett himself ran out of legs, despite Edoardo Affini doing most of the heavy lifting in the break for him. So will Bouwman get a chance to avenge his defeat up to Campo Felice? I think it’s very possible, and he’s included in the staking plan.   

Bora–Hansgrohe’s goals have changed in the last 24 hours. Emanuel Buchmann’s abandonment on stage 15 means they will be stage hunting from now on in. Tour of the Alps stage winner Felix Großschartner has played very much a supporting role in this Giro – for Buchmann and for Peter Sagan. If he can get up the road, and it’s difficult to see now why he wouldn’t, then he could take the win, but it’ll be difficult for him to switch from protective to attack mode.  

If it does come down to some kind of sprint, then the riders – who will have gone over almost 6,000m of climbing — will fight for the win in the final kilometre at a 4.6% gradient over cobblestones in the pretty ski resort of Cortina d’Ampezzo … not that they’ll necessarily be in the mood to appreciate it.

Antonio Pedrero 2pts each way (4 places) @18/1

Alex Cepeda 0.5pts each way (4 places) @66/1

Jan Hirt 2pts each way (4 places) @16/1

João Almeida 1pt each way (4 places) @25/1

Koen Bouwman 2pts each way (4 places) @16/1

Posted 21.38 BST Sun 23rd May 2021